Card Interest Down? Not at the National.

[Schlesinj]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

Ryan, you are 100% spot on in my opinion.

For one of the gen x er that reawakened back in 2020 after a long hiatus, I would add it is a lot more fun to look at cards/photos etc. vs Johnson and Johnson stock prices to justify the concept of diversification. I am not saying people went in as an investment, but the idea of alternative assets is a real thing now (like art, cars, investing in companies, real estate). To combine a great hobby together kept people in. That said, being smart about % and readjusting is important and frankly utility is also valuable if you have that mindset.

In addition, adding new relationships is also just as valuable at certain age groups, common interests in this non-social online world.

[Johnny630]

From what I noticed over the past year or so is that many vintage collectors are buying raw cards at shows if priced reasonably with nice eye appeal. It seems the middle and lower grade populations have exploded since....what this tells me is many of these guys buying the raw cards at shows as above are submitting these for grading. Just like the explosion of GM raw card breaks...many of these guys buying are getting them and submitting right away after they get the cards. The addiction to grading is real for dealers online...I know of several guys on facebook whom are sellers that go to all the shows purchase raw vintage lower and middle grade haggling for the lowest prices. When they get home they go right to grading for listing when arrived back on Facebook. It's wild to watch the churn of these cards.

[theshowandme]

I am close to the tail end of millenials (31 yo) and it is like being a middle child between Gen X and Gen Z.

It is two different worlds.

The Gen Z kids are animals with the Panini football and basketball cards, rolexes, gambling, etc.

Most of the people I know my age are married, having kids, and moving their collections into vintage.

I posted a video of the counter culture "After Show" at the Aviator on Thursday night. I had never seen anything like it. I do not know if a single card in the showcases was priced less than $1,000. I also did not know who half the basketball/football players were on the $5,000+ cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rayq_AcrJsE

[Leon]

That is way too packed. No freaking way. Some craziness right there. I am not sure I can get excited enough to endure something like that.

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I am close to the tail end of millenials (31 yo) and it is like being a middle child between Gen X and Gen Z.

It is two different worlds.

The Gen Z kids are animals with the Panini football and basketball cards, rolexes, gambling, etc.

Most of the people I know my age are married, having kids, and moving their collections into vintage.

I posted a video of the counter culture "After Show" at the Aviator on Thursday night. I had never seen anything like it. I do not know if a single card in the showcases was priced less than $1,000. I also did not know who half the basketball/football players were on the $5,000+ cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rayq_AcrJsE

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

That is way too packed. No freaking way. Some craziness right there. I am not sure I can get excited enough to endure something like that.

Talk about a petri dish.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Leon

That is way too packed. No freaking way. Some craziness right there. I am not sure I can get excited enough to endure something like that.

I have to think the fire marshall would be unhappy about this

[Kzoo]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I have to think the fire marshall would be unhappy about this

My son and I went to this show on Wednesday evening and it was insane busy. We heard the venue cancelled the show after the 1st night (the fire marshall may have made the decision), and then I noticed there was a cancellation sign in the lobby when entering for the Net54 'get together' on Thursday......however, word didn't reach all collectors as there were about a dozen of them holding their own trade night on the curb in the front parking lot.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I have to think the fire marshall would be unhappy about this

They were.

As I left there were at least 3 uniformed police officers walking in from outside

The next night I saw this sign walking into Steve’s event.

They found space in one of the hotels from what I understand

[Exhibitman]

Don't forget inheritances. As we bury the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation (and the earliest Boomers), a ton of wealth is transferring tax-free (for the most part) to Gen X and Millennials. I was at my 40th HS reunion last fall. I went to a small private prep school in L.A. where nearly all of the students were from families that were in the top 10% financially speaking and most of my classmates who showed up had inherited enough from their parents since the 30th reunion to retire or semi-retire on it. Since we are in our late fifties, very few of us were content to do nothing, but having enough to pay off a house and fund a retirement plan frees up a large part of future income for discretionary spending. I suspect a lot of 'advanced' collectors are in a similar position and aren't sweating a $5,000 card the way they would have a decade ago.

The prosperity is not limited to the National. I set up every few months at Front Row Cards' Pasadena show. Last show was one of the best ones I've had. My sales were strong across various categories and not made by one or two big cards. In fact, I did not even have a showcase of higher end cards, just picker boxes. My eBay sales are good too. There is a lot of money out there right now and it is not limited to veteran collectors and young speculators flipping shiny crap. Anecdotally speaking, after chatting with quite a few collectors at shows, inheritance is factoring into it.

[z28jd]

I have noticed that a lot of current players are collecting cards, which I think should get young collectors interested. I can't remember a time when I've read about so many players collecting. Usually you hear about random players here and there. I think the players collecting and showing off their cards is great for the health of the hobby. It's a lot of young players too who haven't made real money yet (in baseball terms). They could become higher end collectors once they start collecting big league checks

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Don't forget inheritances. As we bury the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation (and the earliest Boomers), a ton of wealth is transferring tax-free (for the most part) to Gen X and Millennials.

I hear the greatest generation was a lot more chatty than the silent generation.

Although I suspect all that greatness creates pretty high expectations.

And I guess I need to find some rich old people who are otherwise childless who can adopt me to help support my collection.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

From what I noticed over the past year or so is that many vintage collectors are buying raw cards at shows if priced reasonably with nice eye appeal. It seems the middle and lower grade populations have exploded since....what this tells me is many of these guys buying the raw cards at shows as above are submitting these for grading. Just like the explosion of GM raw card breaks...many of these guys buying are getting them and submitting right away after they get the cards. The addiction to grading is real for dealers online...I know of several guys on facebook whom are sellers that go to all the shows purchase raw vintage lower and middle grade haggling for the lowest prices. When they get home they go right to grading for listing when arrived back on Facebook. It's wild to watch the churn of these cards.

I agree with what you are seeing. I don’t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I agree with what you are seeing. I don’t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

I do the exact opposite. Often the only option is to buy them graded, but then I crack them out as soon as I can. But if it resides in an SGC slab (and is aesthetically pleasing) I'll often leave it as-is.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I agree with what you are seeing. I don’t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

That’s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

That’s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale

You may be conflating trying to sell at $50 with selling at $50.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

You may be conflating trying to sell at $50 with selling at $50.

Bingo.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

That’s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale

Not so sure that it’s really this rich.

This analysis ignores the cost to ship back and forth from the grader. Also ignores selling costs, and the cost of capital or time value of money while your cash is tied up waiting for the piece to get graded, and then waiting for it to sell once it’s graded. Throw in some overhead for salaries to pay your people to manage all this stuff, a little rent to store everything and have a site for your people to work, some insurance to cover your operations, and it gets a lot more tight.

On a good day it’s more like a 15-20% profit margin. On a bad day it could be less than 10%. Still not nothing. But probably not nearly as fat as it might seem at first blush.

Of course, if the market is rising, particularly if it’s rising aggressively, then the time spent waiting for grading and for the piece to sell works to make the math a whole lot better. But as much as it pains us to admit it, cardboard doesn’t always go up, and go up bigly.

[Exhibitman]

That video is crazy. Looks like the 2022 Burbank show, which was so packed they weren’t letting dealers back inside.

Modern card speculation is the poor man’s meme stock.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

That video is crazy. Looks like the 2022 Burbank show, which was so packed they weren’t letting dealers back inside.

Modern card speculation is the poor man’s meme stock.

I was with several people and we kept saying how crazy it was

Cards were moving and a lot of cash was being exchanged

And just imagine the original plan was for that thing to run 3-4 more times during the week!

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by raulus

Not so sure that it’s really this rich.

This analysis ignores the cost to ship back and forth from the grader. Also ignores selling costs, and the cost of capital or time value of money while your cash is tied up waiting for the piece to get graded, and then waiting for it to sell once it’s graded. Throw in some overhead for salaries to pay your people to manage all this stuff, a little rent to store everything and have a site for your people to work, some insurance to cover your operations, and it gets a lot more tight.

On a good day it’s more like a 15-20% profit margin. On a bad day it could be less than 10%. Still not nothing. But probably not nearly as fat as it might seem at first blush.

Of course, if the market is rising, particularly if it’s rising aggressively, then the time spent waiting for grading and for the piece to sell works to make the math a whole lot better. But as much as it pains us to admit it, cardboard doesn’t always go up, and go up bigly.

I’ll concede the points about opportunity cost of sitting inventory and playing the waiting game

That is real risk for any business owner.

That said, I know several people operating this way and they are churning inventory a number of ways: card shows, Facebook, Instagram, Discord, Twitter, and last case scenario, 7 day eBay auctions.

Shipping adds little to the per unit cost basis if you are sending 50-100 cards at a time for example. Or if you are dropping off at card shows where you only pay for shipping on the way back.

If you are getting 15-25% return on your $ while doing this on the side, it can be very fruitful

[whodey14]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I agree with what you are seeing. I don’t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

Doing it once? Sure. As mentioned by theshowandme at scale that is a very legitimate business. Many thrive at smaller margins.

EDIT

Went to the show all week and the after show on Wednesday. Even on the first evening the place was ridiculous. I walked in about 5 feet and couldn't leave. Made my way through the crowd to a side door and left. Not for me. Even the crowd at the show was excessive. Makes me miss pre-covid National times where you could at least walk around and see the showcases. I'm younger than most and do enjoy the modern side of the hobby as well but my generation is not who I associate with. Modern for me is unique patches/autos of older players. So the video crew flipping Panini "case hits" is not for me either. Did feel like vintage was very well represented however.

[Clemente_Collector]

Howard Chasser came on my channel to discuss the National, Howard had some great perspective from the dealer side of the table, check it out!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ssj78Z...UgY29sbGVjdG9y

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Schlesinj

For one of the gen x er that reawakened back in 2020 after a long hiatus, I would add it is a lot more fun to look at cards/photos etc. vs Johnson and Johnson stock prices to justify the concept of diversification. I am not saying people went in as an investment, but the idea of alternative assets is a real thing now (like art, cars, investing in companies, real estate). To combine a great hobby together kept people in. That said, being smart about % and readjusting is important and frankly utility is also valuable if you have that mindset.

In addition, adding new relationships is also just as valuable at certain age groups, common interests in this non-social online world.

So by my flawed logic then it is the most fun when you can look at your cards and the J&J stock price at the same time.

[Schlesinj]

Originally Posted by Yoda

So by my flawed logic then it is the most fun when you can look at your cards and the J&J stock price at the same time.

Unfortunately, one or the other for me!

Don’t drain your 401k like an old thread discussed.