Same SGC 7 Mantle Sold 4 times in 15 months

[Rhotchkiss]

Regarding the Mantle, I am confident the 3rd sale (the second PWCC auction) was a real sale/transaction. Why do I say that? Because the card next popped up in Goldin, an unaffiliated competitor of PWCC. The fact that it was bought from PWCC and consigned to Goldin indicates it was the type of collector who is attracted to those venues - likely new-to-the hobby money who is chasing the trends. But I think that’s a real sale.

I highly doubt the first PWCC BIN vault sale was real. Why? First, why did it pop up in a PWCC auction mere months later?, (2) We know PWCC started defaulting on loans, bc of loans made, and had to sell collateral - this was a big time card and the more it really sells for the more they get (obviously), and (3) PWCC did A LOT of sketchy and unethical things on the way up; they would not turn ethical on the way down as the sky was falling.

I think the first “sale” was a fake intended to establish a comp. We know this happens and a struggling PWCC…. Well, enough said.

The second sale may also be a fake. I like that it’s an auction, so people bid on it. But if the hammer price was not high enough, PWCC certainly could have won its own card; there is no downside since they owe nobody money, they own the AH so no BP, and pay no taxes or shipping. Also, it shows up next in another PWCC auction (3rd sale) a few months later. Sure, it could be a bona fide consignment, but it just stinks like fish. Instead, I think it’s more likely that by the 3rd sale, perhaps things at PWCC are worse and they really had to let the card go at whatever price to pay creditors.

So, I am saying- the first sale is fake, the second sale was pwcc buying its own card to protect from what was considered a bad price - so another fake sale (sort of). The third sale is real. The fourth sale is real, but not sure why the dude sold it - either the seller was in real bad shape too or he though he stole it from pwcc (based on the prior two comps) and thought he would do real well selling it Goldin.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Regarding the Mantle, I am confident the 3rd sale (the second PWCC auction) was a real sale/transaction. Why do I say that? Because the card next popped up in Goldin, an unaffiliated competitor of PWCC. The fact that it was bought from PWCC and consigned to Goldin indicates it was the type of collector who is attracted to those venues - likely new-to-the hobby money who is chasing the trends. But I think that’s a real sale.

I highly doubt the first PWCC BIN vault sale was real. Why? First, why did it pop up in a PWCC auction mere months later?, (2) We know PWCC started defaulting on loans, bc of loans made, and had to sell collateral - this was a big time card and the more it really sells for the more they get (obviously), and (3) PWCC did A LOT of sketchy and unethical things on the way up; they would not turn ethical on the way down as the sky was falling.

I think the first “sale” was a fake intended to establish a comp. We know this happens and a struggling PWCC…. Well, enough said.

The second sale may also be a fake. I like that it’s an auction, so people bid on it. But if the hammer price was not high enough, PWCC certainly could have won its own card; there is no downside since they owe nobody money, they own the AH so no BP, and pay no taxes or shipping. Also, it shows up next in another PWCC auction (3rd sale) a few months later. Sure, it could be a bona fide consignment, but it just stinks like fish. Instead, I think it’s more likely that by the 3rd sale, perhaps things at PWCC are worse and they really had to let the card go at whatever price to pay creditors.

So, I am saying- the first sale is fake, the second sale was pwcc buying its own card to protect from what was considered a bad price - so another fake sale (sort of). The third sale is real. The fourth sale is real, but not sure why the dude sold it - either the seller was in real bad shape too or he though he stole it from pwcc (based on the prior two comps) and thought he would do real well selling it Goldin.

This reads as a somewhat creative take to me. Accusing PWCC of being the owners themselves and creating their own fake sale to manipulate the market is a claim I would never entertain without evidence. It's just too far fetched. Especially when the data points already perfectly align with the plot I posted above of where the market was at that time. The sale date was literally right at the exact peak of that plot. Conspiracy theories are not needed to explain the outlier in this situation. The market itself perfectly explains the sale amount in this case.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Ryan’s logic all makes sense. The only thing I would question is whether or not PWCC was the actual owner of the card. I think more likely that it was owned by a BIG consignor and PWCC conspired with them to get the best price possible for it. So again, no BP, tax, shipping, etc. All they had to do was look the other way and the consignor keeps the card each time, including the initial sale, which could have easily been bid up by a hobby “friend” in order to establish a baseline price.

I understand that prices were crazy at that time but I attribute that to other big cards such as the ‘86 Fleer Jordan PSA 10 getting the same kind of treatment, not just collectors/investors spending wildly. Once the foundation was laid with enough BIG cards being manipulated, then I think the FOMO factor started to kick in and things just took off from there.

[parkplace33]

Ryan, excellent work here. This is the perfect example of why I always check vcp and due research into the history of cards before a purchase.

I am curious if we see other cards with a history like this. come out for sale in the next 12 months. Or will these “collectors” simply sit on it until conditions are better.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This reads as a somewhat creative take to me. Accusing PWCC of being the owners themselves and creating their own fake sale to manipulate the market is a claim I would never entertain without evidence. It's just too far fetched. Especially when the data points already perfectly align with the plot I posted above of where the market was at that time. The sale date was literally right at the exact peak of that plot. Conspiracy theories are not needed to explain the outlier in this situation. The market itself perfectly explains the sale amount in this case.

Travis. This is one place that you and I disagree - the old guard pwcc. You seem to always defend them. They did a lot of sketchy stuff and it’s documented. We also know that the old pwcc was in financial trouble from their loan program. In my experience, if someone is sketchy in good times, they will be sketchy in bad times (often more so). We also know it’s common practice to post high, fake sales on cards one is looking to unload to establish a comp. Put that all together and I am more cynical

A few things to note: (1) PWCC was sold and is under new ownership. All of these Mantle sales happened before PWCC was sold. I have no reason to believe that new PWCC has done anything wrong, sketchy, improper. My guesses are related only to old PWCC. (2) I have no idea what really happened here. These are all guesses and I may be 100% incorrect. (3) When using VCP or any other resource, I almost always ignore BIN comps. Plus, you will see they are almost always higher than comps through auction. (4) All of these sales could be real, meaning money between 3rd parties changed hands. However, the temporal proximity, combined with PWCC’s involvement in 3 of them while PWCC’s economic condition started to turn, makes me highly dubious. (5) the Mantle in question is gorgeous and is a great example of an a great card. Compared to the same-graded Mantle in Heritage, which is similarly amazing looking, the Goldin sale looks like a good get for whoever bought it.

One final note about PWCC- they revolutionized a helped popularize the industry and they deserve big credit for that. They also grew the platform from a small eBay seller to a premier outfit and one of the largest auction houses. That is not easy and they deserve credit for that. Notwithstanding some very questionable actions, PWCC did some pretty impressive and important things

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Travis. This is one place that you and I disagree - the old guard pwcc. You seem to always defend them. They did a lot of sketchy stuff and it’s documented. We also know that the old pwcc was in financial trouble from their loan program. In my experience, if someone is sketchy in good times, they will be sketchy in bad times (often more so). We also know it’s common practice to post high, fake sales on cards one is looking to unload to establish a comp. Put that all together and I am more cynical

A few things to note: (1) PWCC was sold and is under new ownership. All of these Mantle sales happened before PWCC was sold. I have no reason to believe that new PWCC has done anything wrong, sketchy, improper. My guesses are related only to old PWCC. (2) I have no idea what really happened here. These are all guesses and I may be 100% incorrect. (3) When using VCP or any other resource, I almost always ignore BIN comps. Plus, you will see they are almost always higher than comps through auction. (4) All of these sales could be real, meaning money between 3rd parties changed hands. However, the temporal proximity, combined with PWCC’s involvement in 3 of them while PWCC’s economic condition started to turn, makes me highly dubious. (5) the Mantle in question is gorgeous and is a great example of an a great card. Compared to the same-graded Mantle in Heritage, which is similarly amazing looking, the Goldin sale looks like a good get for whoever bought it.

One final note about PWCC- they revolutionized a helped popularize the industry and they deserve big credit for that. They also grew the platform from a small eBay seller to a premier outfit and one of the largest auction houses. That is not easy and they deserve credit for that. Notwithstanding some very questionable actions, PWCC did some pretty impressive and important things

I agree regarding PWCC having done some sketchy things in the past. And yes, it appears as though they were experiencing financial pressure prior to being acquired by Fanatics and laying off 30% of their workforce.

Where we disagree is whether or not these facts make it likely that the $500k Mantle sale was faked and owned by PWCC as opposed to a customer. Remember, this sale occurred at the absolute peak of the market. PWCC was rolling in the dough at that time. The financial turmoil didn't begin until after the market had crashed and interest rates began to rise causing consigners to default in their loans. It wasn't until May 2023 when PWCC made the layoffs and were acquired by Fanatics. They were not feeling any financial pressures at all in March 2021.

[Republicaninmass]

Nope, nothing nefarious. Nobody is passing the hot potato or trying to prop up sales of higher end cards