How did this all start?

[brunswickreeves]

If there was a ‘who’ started the frenzy and run up, I’d say Rob Gough who paid a record $5.2MM for a ‘52 Topps Mick PSA 9 in January 2021 (https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/01/14/mi...-breaks-record).

Then about 1 week later, one of the great last living HOFers Hank Aaron passed away. There was a lot of buzz in and about the card collecting industry and market at/after that time. Covid had been around for 1 year by then, and people realized it wasn't going to be the end of times, so didn't need to hoard their cash. Ongoing lockdown put more cash in people's pockets from government stimulus and savings from commuting, leaving more for discretionary spending.

The lockdown also put more time on people's hands, so had more opportunity to reconnect with or enter the hobby as an investment. Pre-Feb 2021 you could eBay best offer sellers on any vintage HOFer for a 15-25% discount. Now, you really need to be the highest bidder in an auction or take a chance on an upgraded card. Some cards pre-Feb 2021 included: 52 Topps Mick in PSA 1 for $15K. 48 Leaf Ruth in SGC A for $500. 53 Topps Mays in PSA 2 for $450. 52 Topps Mays in PSA 1 for $450 and $1600 in PSA 2. 09 T206 Cobb Red in PSA A for $1500. 51 Bowman Mays in PSA 1 for $1500. Most of these cards and others have doubled, tripled or better in past couple of years.

[JollyElm]

Obviously, it was Joe Exotic, "The Tiger King." Duh!!

[jthorst75]

Kobe RIP #24. It was all down hill after that...

[Peter_Spaeth]

A more cynical answer would be it was just the latest batch of pumpers and pimps and shillers and fake sales creating massive FOMO for a while.

[Exhibitman]

Jordan. No doubt. That documentary fueled the biggest run in basketball cards ever. Now, to be fair, most basketball had been stagnating for a long time and prices for many of the ATGs were ridiculously low. But that series ignited interest and the entire sector went for a wild ride. I think that turbocharged the rest of the sectors that ran up. Kicked off a FOMO craze. I don't think the vast majority of sales were fake. I certainly got paid as I cashed out. Then the pump and dump crowd got into it. You know, the dorks with designer man-purses talking like dope dealers. And then the hype of the manufacturers pushing ultra modern. Now that Topps boxes are showing up at Costco, the market has reached saturation. I went to a local card show over the weekend. Small HS gym show, real throwback. The dealers were 90% under 40, and their wares were 100% modern and not selling. I spoke with some of them and they were all trying to get out of the shiny and into vintage cards. They told me the market for modern is saturated and dead. Traffic at the show was very low, compared to the zoo scenes at many shows lately. I think there is some capitulation on the part of the modern collectors who've been so jolted this last year. They are sitting on their Zion cases and not buying more, at least not at the high prices of 2022. I would not be surprised if that 'correction' spreads down the line into postwar and then prewar cards. At least I hope it does so I can grab up a few more Ruth cards when they bottom out!

What kind of legs there are to the market remains to be seen. I am setting up at the show in Pasadena November 18-19 and it will be interesting to see how vintage sells at my table. Come on by and visit the Festival of Bric A Brac. Check out my new vintage NASCAR stock.

Oh, what was the original question??

[G1911]

An irresponsible Chinese lab partially funded by the US, the gigantic overreaction to it, the federal government deciding money just grew on trees and selling out the future to fund their chosen crisis of the moment, some population heavy states trying to keep their people cooped up in their homes with a bunch of people scared to touch grass, and a lot of the country getting time off work with cash flowing in anyways mixed with the usual pumpers telling everyone cards only go up and lying to get morons to inflate their portfolios for them.

A whole lot of collectibles and hobbies saw spikes with many people hiding inside, not working much, and getting paid still. The only surprise is that some people are surprised the pumpers weren't right and the market is falling instead of continuing to just go up forever. None of the pumpers were willing to share the screenshots of them cashing out their 401K's to buy cards like they were advising others to do for some reason. Wonder why.

[campyfan39]

i agree with every word of this

Originally Posted by G1911

An irresponsible Chinese lab partially funded by the US, the gigantic overreaction to it, the federal government deciding money just grew on trees and selling out the future to fund their chosen crisis of the moment, some population heavy states trying to keep their people cooped up in their homes with a bunch of people scared to touch grass, and a lot of the country getting time off work with cash flowing in anyways mixed with the usual pumpers telling everyone cards only go up and lying to get morons to inflate their portfolios for them.

A whole lot of collectibles and hobbies saw spikes with many people hiding inside, not working much, and getting paid still. The only surprise is that some people are surprised the pumpers weren't right and the market is falling instead of continuing to just go up forever. None of the pumpers were willing to share the screenshots of them cashing out their 401K's to buy cards like they were advising others to do for some reason. Wonder why.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

A more cynical answer would be it was just the latest batch of pumpers and pimps and shillers and fake sales creating massive FOMO for a while.

This.

I was approached by my brother in law, a doctor, and he asked me if I thought he should invest in cards. He invests in bit coin, and other alternative portfolios. This was June 2020. Prices were already climbing that first summer of COVID. Many NET54 members were already singing "sell baby sell." I told my brother in law not to invest when the market is climbing and wait for the next valley.

He watches his own chats and what not, and influencers had already convinced the 1% to invest in cards by June 2020.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[Fred]

Lots of interesting theories. What I have a difficult time trying to figure out is the demographic of the people buying into the hype. When you think about it, who has the kind of money to dump on things like cardboard as an investment.

Then you stop and consider the Game Stop short squeeze (early 2021) and the line of knucklehead investors reading/reacting to the Reddit blogs.

A lot of those Game Stop Reddit readers got burned, badly. The smart ones (probably a small percentage) got out at the right time because they understood the market and the ignorant ones lost quite a bit. Someone had to lose in that scam.

In the end if there was a wide audience without any collecting experience propping up the market, at least they have a cool card (or cards) to show for their efforts. Makes you wonder, if there it's possible to have the same "investment" result that Game Stop stock has had. Investors would lose their ass on card board. Think how badly the price of card board could drop. Wishful thinking for hobbyist and collectors.