How did this all start?

[Rhotchkiss]

This is a very interesting read. I don’t know what “started it all”. But I will argue that for quality/blue chip prewar vintage, “it” started long before Covid happened. The value of quality vintage cards and players have consistently gone up- over time - since I started collecting in the early 1980s. That is a primary reason why I decided to invest in cards when I jumped back into the hobby in 2014-15. Below are screen shots of VCP results of various prewar vintage cards that I pulled randomly (focusing on players and cards issues- I did not cherry-pick results).

The first is t206 Walter Johnson portrait PSA 4
The second is 1914 Cracker Jack Cobb PSA 3
The third is E121 “Babe” Ruth SGC 2
The fourth is 1933 Goudey Gehrig, #92, PSA 4

In the cases of the t206 Johnson and 1933 Goudey Gehrig, there are too many sales over the last 20 years to show them individually, like I do with the Cobb and Ruth, so I show an extended-year charter from VCP showing price growth over time

The point here is that, over time, the good stuff tends to go up. Indeed, it tends to double every 5-10 years and grow from there. A doubling from $15,000 to $30,000 is much more dramatic on a pure dollars basis than a doubling from $2000 to $4000. But it’s a doubling, and nothing more, nonetheless.

These charts clearly show large spikes in 2021(ish), but over the longer history, it’s just a more dramatic example of whats been happening for decades. And if history holds true, which I suspect it will barring some fundamental societal/economic shift (which could happen in this crazy world), prices may recede some, but a new floor will be established and over time prices will rise and eventually double.

I am talking specifically to blue chip players and pre war items. I do not know if Roger Bresnahan or Kiki Cuyler shows similar trends; although I suspect they do, just in a less dramatic fashion. And I expect we will see similar trends with players like Mantle, Clemente, Aaron, Mays, Robison, Paige. Cards have been an asset class/store of wealth for many years, and, in my experience, they have been solid investments. But it’s a get-rich-slowly type of play.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This is a very interesting read. I don’t know what “started it all”. But I will argue that for quality/blue chip prewar vintage, “it” started long before Covid happened. The value of quality vintage cards and players have consistently gone up- over time - since I started collecting in the early 1980s. That is a primary reason why I decided to invest in cards when I jumped back into the hobby in 2014-15. Below are screen shots of VCP results of various prewar vintage cards that I pulled randomly (focusing on players and cards issues- I did not cherry-pick results).

The first is t206 Walter Johnson portrait PSA 4
The second is 1914 Cracker Jack Cobb PSA 3
The third is E121 “Babe” Ruth SGC 2
The fourth is 1933 Goudey Gehrig, #92, PSA 4

In the cases of the t206 Johnson and 1933 Goudey Gehrig, there are too many sales over the last 20 years to show them individually, like I do with the Cobb and Ruth, so I show an extended-year charter from VCP showing price growth over time

The point here is that, over time, the good stuff tends to go up. Indeed, it tends to double every 5-10 years and grow from there. A doubling from $15,000 to $30,000 is much more dramatic on a pure dollars basis than a doubling from $2000 to $4000. But it’s a doubling, and nothing more, nonetheless.

These charts clearly show large spikes in 2021(ish), but over the longer history, it’s just a more dramatic example of whats been happening for decades. And if history holds true, which I suspect it will barring some fundamental societal/economic shift (which could happen in this crazy world), prices may recede some, but a new floor will be established and over time prices will rise and eventually double.

I am talking specifically to blue chip players and pre war items. I do not know if Roger Bresnahan or Kiki Cuyler shows similar trends; although I suspect they do, just in a less dramatic fashion. And I expect we will see similar trends with players like Mantle, Clemente, Aaron, Mays, Robison, Paige. Cards have been an asset class/store of wealth for many years, and, in my experience, they have been solid investments. But it’s a get-rich-slowly type of play.

Thanks for the numbers Ryan,

It will be interesting to see what the 14CJ Cobb "4" goes for in the upcoming LOTG, to quote your phrase, I think it's a "health of the hobby" indicator card. My guess is it makes a new high.

[Fred]

What would be interesting to see is the subscription rate numbers to VCP over the last decade. If I were to guess, the subscription rate would have increased a lot in the past couple of years.

It's a nice service to see trends like those posted so far.

[Exhibitman]

I don't know if anyone pays attention to it, but I also look at passed lot numbers for established AHs. To my way of thinking, a very low passed lot % is indicative of an active market. Prices may not increase or may fall, but as long as there is a vibrant marketplace, there is liquidity.

ETA: Ryan's point is well-taken. I am watching a PSA 2 Robinson RC (1947 Bond portrait) in Lelands. With 18 days to go it is already a record price for the grade.

[Snapolit1]

One factor that I knew would hurt the hobby enormously was the proliferation of monthly and weekly and flash auctions. When I joined the board there was wild anticipation of upcoming auctions. Yes, people waxing poetic about the smell of the catalog and the poor postman who had to carry it up the stairs. Auctions were special. Now amazing auctions come and go without barely a comment. Sure, there are board members who comment on their lots, their wins, etc. But the buzz is totally gone. Things like green and red Cobbs used to be special to see. Now we are inundated with them.

If you are buying into this market it’s for love of the cardboard. And that’s great. I think most of the current sale prices will look lousy in a year.

[benchod]

Totally agree with you Steve
The yearly REA auction and the Mastro December auction were events to look forward to with amazing lots of rarities. There are so many auctions now I don't have time to keep up and go through all the lots

[kailes2872]

I wonder who is going to be able to buy these collections. I look at average stats, net worth, average income, etc., and everything tells me that I am living in that top decile. Yet, I can count on two hands the number of cards that I have bought over the past 3+ years.

I guess I got used to the pricing from 2012-2019 and I have not been able to adjust to the new normal.

My PSA 6 '54 Aaron was a $1600 card in 2014. It sells for multiples of that now. If I couldn't comfortably "afford" that now with a paid off house, career in peak earning years, and plenty of discretionary income, then where is the market? I guess that there are a lot of very wealthy people in the hobby - more so than me, but it just seems like we are going to get to a point where the norm is buying groups and having shares of collections instead of someone buying everything and holding it, but what do I know.

I sound like my mother in law. She used to lament as she would be looking for a parking spot at the mall around Christmas time. She would throw her hands up in the air and say "where do the people get the money?" - only to finally find a spot and go in and spend hers.

[bcbgcbrcb]

We’ve all read by now the thread here regarding the buyer who got a steal of a deal and the seller subsequently filing a lawsuit against them.

How about the opposite here, a lawsuit to be filed against those that “faked” sales/comps/YouTube videos, etc. generating all the hype and skyrocketing prices that caused everything to get out of control, leaving individuals who opted to buy into the market at this time with devastating consequences that could completely ruin one’s life because of what these unscrupulous individuals did back in 2021. Any attorneys on the board here game to pursue this?

[bcbgcbrcb]

A couple of other names that came to the forefront early on, Geoff Wilson and Vegas Dave.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

A couple of other names that came to the forefront early on, Geoff Wilson and Vegas Dave.

Vegas Dave started a huge "superfractor" push. I don't mess with ultra-modern except to pick up notable Cubs players, but the media assisted self-promotion push based on his Trout superfractor brought some high end speculators (and their wallets) into the hobby.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

A couple of other names that came to the forefront early on, Geoff Wilson and Vegas Dave.

Now those guys are pumpers. A lot of Wilson’s picks were really bad and lost a bunch of guys money. He’s not popular anymore in the ‘modern bro’ areas I’m familiar with now.


Maybe we can have a spinoff thread tomorrow completely lying about its purpose before the rage unlocks for any investors who get their panties twisted over that statement that does not express their views for them but instead expresses my own.

[Yoda]

With the end of the year approaching and the card market wobbling in places, I would imagine there will be a lot of tax loss selling going on to offset some of the large gains realized during the boom period.

[sb1]

There is no such thing as a tax loss on collectibles....I am sure some get lucky and don't get questioned, but if they do.

Time for the CPA's to chime in.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by sb1

There is no such thing as a tax loss on collectibles....I am sure some get lucky and don't get questioned, but if they do.

Time for the CPA's to chime in.

Like all good accounting questions, it depends.

There's a pretty good summary here that covers a lot of the important elements: https://bradfordtaxinstitute.com/Con...ctivities.aspx

I do suspect that some who might stridently claim to be pure hobbyists around these parts will suddenly determine that for tax purposes they're actually investors. But maybe don't admit that around here, because investor seems to be used as a dirty word (or a serious slur).

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by sb1

There is no such thing as a tax loss on collectibles....I am sure some get lucky and don't get questioned, but if they do.

Time for the CPA's to chime in.

I suspect that once the govt decided that we would all be getting tax forms for selling $600 worth of cards on ebay that many sellers decided to acquire a business license and become legitimate dealers, keeping detailed records of everything they buy and sell.

[jsfriedm]

To answer the earlier question about rooting for prices to fall, I've thought about this, and even though I am a pure collector with no intention to sell, my ideal scenario would be prices exactly tracking inflation. Nothing more, nothing less. I don't need them to go up because they are not my investments and I would rather spend less on cards so that I can put more into my actual investments. But if cards actually dropped a lot in price, not only might I regret some of the ones I bought over the last few years, but I'd probably have a really hard time pulling the trigger on cards I want and could easily afford because I'd always be telling myself to wait until they go down some more. So, paradoxically, lower prices might make it harder psychologically to buy.

[jacksons]

The spike in card prices around the COVID period also parallels interest in other alternative assets, like crypto. 2020-2021 were extremely volatile market years. Younger generations with cash gambled on bitcoin and jumped into cards for the same reason, especially the vintage ones. These assets were a safe haven from a choppy market. Finite amount of bitcoins, finite amount of T206s (excluding recent attic finds).

[BioCRN]

Junk wax era collectors did return to the hobby and in early-Spring 2021 they were snapping up graded cards from their junk wax youth. It was enough to wake up a long-dead market.

I got rid of so much stuff that had been sitting around since the 90s and very early 00s at a rather nice price. Didn't see that coming. They were a storage afterthought for so long.

It was one thing to see PSA 8 UD Griffey Jr's return to $100, but for a good chunk of 2021 you could get $120+ for one. They seem to be down to $70-ish now. In 2019 and quite a while before that this was a $35 card.

So many other examples, even for mid-range stars.

As a personal anecdote, I did see a notable number of those collectors venture into vintage after they slayed their thirst for all the junk wax cards they used to want/have as a kid. Many of those are still around in the hobby.