How did this all start?
 

If you had to name one individual most responsible for the overheated sports card market in late 2020/early 2021, who would that be?

Lab technician in Wuhan.


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The Fed. Oh, and dem folks in Wuhan...

Well played.

Dang, all along I thought that was just a conspiracy theory. Gotta be true if you heard on the internet.

Wet bats in china.

On a broader scale, I’d say Covid and Michael Jordan ESPN special.

Not really an individual, but…

Near zero interest rates.

Lots and lots and lots of stimulus payments.

Suspended/optional rent, student loan, and mortgage payments.

Everyone locked inside and not able to leave the house, causing them to dig through their old hobbies.

Plus nothing else to throw your money at, except for crypto.

If there was a ‘who’ started the frenzy and run up, I’d say Rob Gough who paid a record $5.2MM for a ‘52 Topps Mick PSA 9 in January 2021 (https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/01/14/mi...-breaks-record).

Then about 1 week later, one of the great last living HOFers Hank Aaron passed away. There was a lot of buzz in and about the card collecting industry and market at/after that time. Covid had been around for 1 year by then, and people realized it wasn't going to be the end of times, so didn't need to hoard their cash. Ongoing lockdown put more cash in people's pockets from government stimulus and savings from commuting, leaving more for discretionary spending.

The lockdown also put more time on people's hands, so had more opportunity to reconnect with or enter the hobby as an investment. Pre-Feb 2021 you could eBay best offer sellers on any vintage HOFer for a 15-25% discount. Now, you really need to be the highest bidder in an auction or take a chance on an upgraded card. Some cards pre-Feb 2021 included: 52 Topps Mick in PSA 1 for $15K. 48 Leaf Ruth in SGC A for $500. 53 Topps Mays in PSA 2 for $450. 52 Topps Mays in PSA 1 for $450 and $1600 in PSA 2. 09 T206 Cobb Red in PSA A for $1500. 51 Bowman Mays in PSA 1 for $1500. Most of these cards and others have doubled, tripled or better in past couple of years.

Obviously, it was Joe Exotic, "The Tiger King." Duh!! :D

Kobe RIP #24. It was all down hill after that...

Man i wanna know where this suspended and optional rent was. That sounds amazing

A more cynical answer would be it was just the latest batch of pumpers and pimps and shillers and fake sales creating massive FOMO for a while.

Jordan. No doubt. That documentary fueled the biggest run in basketball cards ever. Now, to be fair, most basketball had been stagnating for a long time and prices for many of the ATGs were ridiculously low. But that series ignited interest and the entire sector went for a wild ride. I think that turbocharged the rest of the sectors that ran up. Kicked off a FOMO craze. I don't think the vast majority of sales were fake. I certainly got paid as I cashed out. Then the pump and dump crowd got into it. You know, the dorks with designer man-purses talking like dope dealers. And then the hype of the manufacturers pushing ultra modern. Now that Topps boxes are showing up at Costco, the market has reached saturation. I went to a local card show over the weekend. Small HS gym show, real throwback. The dealers were 90% under 40, and their wares were 100% modern and not selling. I spoke with some of them and they were all trying to get out of the shiny and into vintage cards. They told me the market for modern is saturated and dead. Traffic at the show was very low, compared to the zoo scenes at many shows lately. I think there is some capitulation on the part of the modern collectors who've been so jolted this last year. They are sitting on their Zion cases and not buying more, at least not at the high prices of 2022. I would not be surprised if that 'correction' spreads down the line into postwar and then prewar cards. At least I hope it does so I can grab up a few more Ruth cards when they bottom out!

What kind of legs there are to the market remains to be seen. I am setting up at the show in Pasadena November 18-19 and it will be interesting to see how vintage sells at my table. Come on by and visit the Festival of Bric A Brac. Check out my new vintage NASCAR stock.

Oh, what was the original question??

WA State suspended evictions, which meant renters didn't need to pay. So they didn't. I paid because I didn't want my last name to be synonymous to pond scum.

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An irresponsible Chinese lab partially funded by the US, the gigantic overreaction to it, the federal government deciding money just grew on trees and selling out the future to fund their chosen crisis of the moment, some population heavy states trying to keep their people cooped up in their homes with a bunch of people scared to touch grass, and a lot of the country getting time off work with cash flowing in anyways mixed with the usual pumpers telling everyone cards only go up and lying to get morons to inflate their portfolios for them.

A whole lot of collectibles and hobbies saw spikes with many people hiding inside, not working much, and getting paid still. The only surprise is that some people are surprised the pumpers weren't right and the market is falling instead of continuing to just go up forever. None of the pumpers were willing to share the screenshots of them cashing out their 401K's to buy cards like they were advising others to do for some reason. Wonder why.

This.

I was approached by my brother in law, a doctor, and he asked me if I thought he should invest in cards. He invests in bit coin, and other alternative portfolios. This was June 2020. Prices were already climbing that first summer of COVID. Many NET54 members were already singing "sell baby sell." I told my brother in law not to invest when the market is climbing and wait for the next valley.

He watches his own chats and what not, and influencers had already convinced the 1% to invest in cards by June 2020.

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Lots of interesting theories. What I have a difficult time trying to figure out is the demographic of the people buying into the hype. When you think about it, who has the kind of money to dump on things like cardboard as an investment.

Then you stop and consider the Game Stop short squeeze (early 2021) and the line of knucklehead investors reading/reacting to the Reddit blogs.

A lot of those Game Stop Reddit readers got burned, badly. The smart ones (probably a small percentage) got out at the right time because they understood the market and the ignorant ones lost quite a bit. Someone had to lose in that scam.

In the end if there was a wide audience without any collecting experience propping up the market, at least they have a cool card (or cards) to show for their efforts. Makes you wonder, if there it's possible to have the same "investment" result that Game Stop stock has had. Investors would lose their ass on card board. Think how badly the price of card board could drop. Wishful thinking for hobbyist and collectors. :p

Gary Vaynerchuk (Gary Vee) has a huge chunk of responsibility for hyping up the hobby, and especially all the people who were rushing Walmart/Target/retail (though he wasn't advising them to rush retail).

He went all-in with huge hype to the "hustle culture" people about the investment aspect of cards in 2019-2021. Writing, many videos, etc.

All those sneaker heads and others that were a bit out of place in the hobby, or starting breaking streams when they couldn't even pronounce player's names...people like that.

Cards=Asset Class …..this was fueled by PWCC. Right wrong or indifferent never underestimate the importance of them being removed from eBay that was the straw that broke the camel's back…

Perception and Money are powerful and meaningful influences.

Finally, some names are coming out from you guys. Was Goldin not the first auction house to see prices explode online during late 2020/early 2021 fueled by the modern basketball card craze that was the driver behind the entire hobby run-up? No attempt was even made to keep things quiet as it was all over the media that NBA megastars were investing in the company along with huge names from the entertainment industry.

Lots of good comments on here, but for me, the number one item was the lack of travel for individuals in 2020/21. People spent time at home and got bored, bought cards, etc. Now they can use that money for travel.

There is a post on another board about if you sold your personal collection of cards, what did you do with the money? The number one answer was travel. Disney, overseas, etc.

Bingo.

Yep. Huge influx of dudes with tshirts, 3 day growths, backwards ball caps, lots of money from some vague online things. 24 hours a day on their devices, etc.

I recall some people across multiple boards suggesting that major sales for particular cards may have been artificial and that the tactic would raise the prices on all copies of the card, which may have been the real motivation behind the original record breaking price.

Man, not me. I hate traveling, except for card shows and visiting my daughter. Otherwise, screw it. Doesn't hurt that I live in a destination city and that a stay-cation in LA can be pretty awesome. We are planning one grand trip when I retire: I plan to go to cooking school in France.

I think the Gary Vee type hype is key to the demand in new packs at retail and modern hit chasing that blew up; but didn't do much of anything for vintage beyond some 50's and 60's lower middle grade stars. His followers and that type are mostly 20 something singles who don't have a whole lot of money (hence the constant side hustle talk) themselves and are heavy into what I would consider gambling-type investment schemes for a big payday as a shortcut. Sneakers, crypto bro's, whatever the social narrative is is a big pay day (which usually means it's too late to get in and make much) a lot of this type will get in on. That's not really a criticism; that type just simply can't drive the peak end stuff because they do not have that capital. Buying out Target and flipping blaster boxes for double retail price, that was these guys. Mantles are not them.


This side of the hobby kind of loves to dump on them, and I do to somewhat for things like lining up at Wal Mart at 5am in flip-flops to buy out blaster boxes, but there is also a lot of good there. The Discords with these dudes are wild. They have so much positive energy and actually root for each other. While the investment strategy doesn't make a lot of sense, they are so much more positive and seem to actually have fun. They are not really collectors but like our collector-investors they do seem to genuinely enjoy some hobby aspects, preferring to 'make money' this way with a hobby than via a more traditional route. I have a good time with them in the Discords, they're just young dudes trying to make it and have a good time. I don't think they're doing it the right way, but who am I to tell others how to make it.

In a hobby where the items have no real value, all subjective, there is a huge reliance on reported prices, which IMO has led to much mischief.

I bumped into an old acquaintance of mine -- hadn't seen him in 10 years. I asked what he was doing for work and he said it was a long story. He hated his healthcare job during COVID, but was considered essential. So he stayed on working. Then he met a guy who started teaching him day trading. He got a pay boost during COVID as part of the stimulus package to retain healthcare workers. So he started putting cash in the Robin Hood app, small stuff like that. He quit his job, because he was getting paid more to be unemployed than to continue working. Then he fell into the Reddit Crowd. He was too late for GameStop, but gambled on AMC Theaters and sold near the top of the hype. He made "Enough." Now he is a self-employed day trader. That's his job.

You also asked the demographic who was investing in cards? My doctor Bro-in-law is about 45 yrs old. He has the money to invest. He follows all sports, but doesn't buy cards. The only reason he did not invest was because he trusted me when I told him to wait it out, things were going bonkers and he could get burned. He was buying at the wrong time.

COVID investment gains side story... I still can't believe how many people fell in love with meme stocks and the cult-like pull some of them still pull when COVID brought some very evident and special investment opportunities.

I had friends I was trying to talk into paying attention to how the market is reacting to news from China about shutdowns and how the energy market reacted and quickly rebounded after the initial news. There were multiple buy-low and very quick rebounds to take advantage of, but they were stuck falling for the latest hype on an "over-shorted" company...usually one with very weak outlook.

While I was casually making money off energy on these bounces they were busy sinking money into near bankrupt retailers because the hype chambers they were in had taken over their sanity.

I am a casual investor, like them, but once you see China shutdown rollercoaster price bounces a couple times it seems like a no-brainer to get in on the next few of them if you're actually looking to play in the market.

A variety of factors but
1. Covid stuck home
2. Government funding everyone in different forms
3. Market crashing and people wanting to put their money somewhere
4. Bitcoin rise and fall
A. Rise created wealth for many to spend somewhere
B. Decline people pulling out of bitcoin and wanting to invest elsewhere
5. Institutional investors that wanted to have funds to invest in big alternative investments
6. Ryan H and Jeff L. That bought up everything that created the frenzy for the leftovers

A lot of high priced cards played musical chairs multiple times a year from auction house to auction house...

One question I would like to toss out there for the group: is anyone actively rooting for prices to fall? Some of the comments here sound like people are shorting the card market.

I suspect that they will fall a little bit as usually happens after hypebeast demand dries up. I highly doubt a collapse.

Rooting for it? I'd root for a full collapse. Cards are for fun and a hobby, not a profit center in my portfolio. The cheaper they are the more cards I can have fun collecting. It's not in my interest for prices to go up as a collector. Rising prices = good for investor or collector/investor, falling prices = good for collector.

As a collector first I agree. I’d love for low grade Cobb T206s to cost a little under a thousand dollars again.

Although not rooting for a complete collapse to early 1980's levels, I wouldn't mind pricing to come down to pre-covid levels, or at least pre-covid levels +10%, (a much more reasonable increase over the past 3+ years span than what collectors have had to do battle against during that stretch).

Brian

Hell yes I’m rooting for it!

Then I can emerge from my long hibernation and start buying in earnest, instead of just making minor pickups at the margins and only when I’m convinced it’s so rare that I’ll probably never see another one like it again.

Definitely not shorting the market. But I’m absolutely in an “underweight” scenario.

Brian P., did you really do this post?? The reason I ask is because it is lacking your customary bit of humor (which I greatly enjoy!). :)

Yeah that’s a better way of saying what I wanted to say. I’m not hoping for a crash I’d just like to be able to buy a pretty decent card for $800 again. Prior to the pandemic the most I ever spent on a card at one time was $2,000 and now I feel like that’s almost a starting point.

Yes i would too ! fingers crossed

I guess it all depends on where you are in your collecting life. If you are sitting on a pile of hugely appreciated cardboard that you plan to sell in the next several years, a crash would not be welcome.

Ideally, I'd like for prices to stay high and keep going up...except on the things I still want to buy. :D

Might also depend on when you bought.

But agreed that your exit timeline is a big factor. If your exit is measured in decades, and if you (mostly) bought in before the craze, then you’re probably less worried about a 50% drop.

Thanks Val, and it beme indeed. I did however say 'do battle', which to some might be considered a funny combination of words.

Brian

Sounds like you Peter

a confession perhaps?:D

This is a very interesting read. I don’t know what “started it all”. But I will argue that for quality/blue chip prewar vintage, “it” started long before Covid happened. The value of quality vintage cards and players have consistently gone up- over time - since I started collecting in the early 1980s. That is a primary reason why I decided to invest in cards when I jumped back into the hobby in 2014-15. Below are screen shots of VCP results of various prewar vintage cards that I pulled randomly (focusing on players and cards issues- I did not cherry-pick results).

The first is t206 Walter Johnson portrait PSA 4
The second is 1914 Cracker Jack Cobb PSA 3
The third is E121 “Babe” Ruth SGC 2
The fourth is 1933 Goudey Gehrig, #92, PSA 4

In the cases of the t206 Johnson and 1933 Goudey Gehrig, there are too many sales over the last 20 years to show them individually, like I do with the Cobb and Ruth, so I show an extended-year charter from VCP showing price growth over time

The point here is that, over time, the good stuff tends to go up. Indeed, it tends to double every 5-10 years and grow from there. A doubling from $15,000 to $30,000 is much more dramatic on a pure dollars basis than a doubling from $2000 to $4000. But it’s a doubling, and nothing more, nonetheless.

These charts clearly show large spikes in 2021(ish), but over the longer history, it’s just a more dramatic example of whats been happening for decades. And if history holds true, which I suspect it will barring some fundamental societal/economic shift (which could happen in this crazy world), prices may recede some, but a new floor will be established and over time prices will rise and eventually double.

I am talking specifically to blue chip players and pre war items. I do not know if Roger Bresnahan or Kiki Cuyler shows similar trends; although I suspect they do, just in a less dramatic fashion. And I expect we will see similar trends with players like Mantle, Clemente, Aaron, Mays, Robison, Paige. Cards have been an asset class/store of wealth for many years, and, in my experience, they have been solid investments. But it’s a get-rich-slowly type of play.

The same dude that was buying 1988 Donruss..

Post #46 - :p

Thanks for the numbers Ryan,

It will be interesting to see what the 14CJ Cobb "4" goes for in the upcoming LOTG, to quote your phrase, I think it's a "health of the hobby" indicator card. My guess is it makes a new high.

What would be interesting to see is the subscription rate numbers to VCP over the last decade. If I were to guess, the subscription rate would have increased a lot in the past couple of years.

It's a nice service to see trends like those posted so far.

I don't know if anyone pays attention to it, but I also look at passed lot numbers for established AHs. To my way of thinking, a very low passed lot % is indicative of an active market. Prices may not increase or may fall, but as long as there is a vibrant marketplace, there is liquidity.

ETA: Ryan's point is well-taken. I am watching a PSA 2 Robinson RC (1947 Bond portrait) in Lelands. With 18 days to go it is already a record price for the grade.