Friends giving up collecting in 2023 - Post continuation

[Exhibitman]

I suspect a lot of it is coincidental or generational.

There are a lot of us old fart collectors who bought their collections decades ago for a pittance and have huge paper profits. Some are cashing in. Since we all travel in the same relatively small collector circles (I interact with maybe a thousand collectors between boards and in person dealings), a relatively small number of collectors from that core selling out looks like a stampede.

There is also the timing. The early and middle Boomers are at retirement age, and the late Boomers and early Gen X'ers are entering (if we are lucky) the wind-down phases of our careers and the downsizing of our lifestyles and needs. We are moving out of the big empty nests and into smaller spaces more suitable for couples. Part of that is the collection: either sell it off or pay to move it.

[mrreality68]

I agree with all and with the spike in prices it makes alot of us look and see the value of the collection and see what can be done with the money made.

Anyone selling to take care of family put kids thru college, make improvements or upgrades on the house, etc.

God Bless they took a passion of collecting and turned it into an investment in there families or quality of life.

I know some that did that and then after a time they came back to the passion of collecting to start again or to start a new set etc.

[G1911]

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by G1911

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

Don’t forget all the loans you took out to buy more cardboard and are coming due soon!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by raulus

Don’t forget all the loans you took out to buy more cardboard and are coming due soon!

Ha, I’d forgotten about that. It’s a very good thing for my finances I have you to remind me. I hope the bank will take repayment in Mantle’s!

[packs]

Hard to say what a good time to sell is. My opinion is the only good time to sell is when you have something to sell for. Meaning a swap of some kind. As in, I want to make a down payment on a house, or anything else you need / want in your life.

What I would not recommend is selling your collection now just because prices seem high.

You never really know what high is. In the 90s people would have told you to sell all the Cobbs you can, people are paying a few hundred dollars a pop! Now those people regret everything.

[Snapolit1]

With Covid, working from home, general uncertainty, etc. . . . I think a lot of people really threw themselves into collecting as a fun way of combatting boredom. I know I did. As life has returned much closer to normal, many of us aren't quite as nailed to the Internet and home as we were. Assuming some degree of trading burnout is perfectly normal and that many people will tone it down from prior levels and reassess.

[Smarti5051]

I also think there is a bit to the scale of the price increases. If you were a collector 5 years ago, you could be deciding between a $400 nice looking Ty Cobb or $600 Babe Ruth vs a very modest vacation (which might be a weekend at a nearby hotel and a couple nice meals). Now, that same collector, looking at the same card options, would have to decide between the same cards at $2000-3000 vs a couple plane tickets out of state, a decent hotel, and some nice meals and activities - in other words, a "real" vacation. It makes it tougher for a collector on a budget to build his collection. Then, once you realize how much it is going to cost to continue to pursue your personal collection vs other options for the same money, it becomes even tougher to justify. Once you start down the slippery slope of not significantly adding to your collection and the realization that your original PC goals will never become reality, the temptation to just liquidate and make potential life changing money is real.

I suspect the collectors that are sticking it out are either individuals who have sufficient disposable income that pursuing their hobby does not limit their ability to enjoy other hobbies and travel, or collectors that have a focus on lower end or less sought after issues.

[Johnny630]

What the past two years have shown me is that this is a highly impulsive buyers Hobby.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

I also think there is a bit to the scale of the price increases. If you were a collector 5 years ago, you could be deciding between a $400 nice looking Ty Cobb or $600 Babe Ruth vs a very modest vacation (which might be a weekend at a nearby hotel and a couple nice meals). Now, that same collector, looking at the same card options, would have to decide between the same cards at $2000-3000 vs a couple plane tickets out of state, a decent hotel, and some nice meals and activities - in other words, a "real" vacation. It makes it tougher for a collector on a budget to build his collection. Then, once you realize how much it is going to cost to continue to pursue your personal collection vs other options for the same money, it becomes even tougher to justify. Once you start down the slippery slope of not significantly adding to your collection and the realization that your original PC goals will never become reality, the temptation to just liquidate and make potential life changing money is real.

I suspect the collectors that are sticking it out are either individuals who have sufficient disposable income that pursuing their hobby does not limit their ability to enjoy other hobbies and travel, or collectors that have a focus on lower end or less sought after issues.

I think this a very plausible and reasonable take. It's one that I agree with. The collecting bug for me started again in the spring of 2019, prices were steady at this point. I could mostly afford anything that I wanted within reason. Maybe even swing for a big time purchase (a couple of thousand).

Now? It's a completely different story. I really have to pick and choose spots. There are bills to pay. And I'm sure many other collectors are facing this same issue.

[lampertb]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

With Covid, working from home, general uncertainty, etc. . . . I think a lot of people really threw themselves into collecting as a fun way of combatting boredom. I know I did. As life has returned much closer to normal, many of us aren't quite as nailed to the Internet and home as we were. Assuming some degree of trading burnout is perfectly normal and that many people will tone it down from prior levels and reassess.

All of which should result in the near future in falling prices, yes? Basic supply and demand stuff: if the market becomes oversaturated with T206 Cobbs because many people's priorities change simultaneously, then the current craziness might subside a bit.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by G1911

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

Paying 28% to the feds + state tax to invest in the stock market and lose 20% doesn't seem like a smart move. If you are using the money for something useful, like a down payment on a house, then I can see liquidating. Selling just because the market is strong with no real plan isn't very smart.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by rats60

Paying 28% to the feds + state tax to invest in the stock market and lose 20% doesn't seem like a smart move. If you are using the money for something useful, like a down payment on a house, then I can see liquidating. Selling just because the market is strong with no real plan isn't very smart.

I think he was teasing.

[Exhibitman]

Does raise a good point (which I will be exploring in nauseating depth for my blog): tax-related decisions are going to drive a significant number of hobby decisions. I don't want to get Bob C. started on another TL;DR post (I kid you my friend) about taxes, but it is a real issue if the value in your collection was acquired more than ten years ago and has a really big profit baked into it.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Does raise a good point (which I will be exploring in nauseating depth for my blog): tax-related decisions are going to drive a significant number of hobby decisions. I don't want to get Bob C. started on another TL;DR post (I kid you my friend) about taxes, but it is a real issue if the value in your collection was acquired more than ten years ago and has a really big profit baked into it.

LOL

I'll take that as a form of compliment Adam.

Hey, at least some people now realize they actually have to think about that kind of stuff, and at least have some idea on what they might need to do and be aware of.

P.S. Need any help for your tax related blog? And I am being serious.

[jingram058]

I think a lot of people are holding what they have, and either trading or buying cheap. That is me at this point.

I have been in and out of this hobby for long periods over the decades. I can easily understand getting out now, with the high cost of graded cards. Thus, if you're sitting on a gold mine, I can easily understand selling out. As Joe DiMaggio said, when it's no longer fun, it's time to go.

The only people who appear to be happy with the current state of affairs in this hobby are the deep pocketed, only too happy to buy, sell and trade cards that, unless you were able and fortunate enough to pick them up when they were reasonable, are beyond the grasp of the average guy. Sure there are shows, and people who frequent this forum, and auction houses, and sellers on eBay, and what have you who radiate positivity over buying or selling cards in the thousands of dollars. But that's not the average guy, I do not think. The average guy can only participate in buying expensive cards if he is single, or he has no kids and a very understanding wife who doesn't care if hubby buys whatever it is that makes him happy. It isn't a hobby when you go into debt to further it. I guess it is a hobby if you're made out of money.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by rats60

Paying 28% to the feds + state tax to invest in the stock market and lose 20% doesn't seem like a smart move. If you are using the money for something useful, like a down payment on a house, then I can see liquidating. Selling just because the market is strong with no real plan isn't very smart.

There was a fairly long thread a few months ago where members in the pumper wing of the hobby were advising other members to do this or speaking positively about doing it, to drain their retirement accounts to invest in cards well after the peak. It was then followed by another thread where the pumpers also encouraged the taking out of loans to pay for cards that people couldn’t afford, and then getting upset at people who laughed at or questioned the reasonableness of this surely impartial advice.

The first paragraph of my post is a joke about the pumpers on the board who have been advocating people to do absolutely stupid things and promoting the narrative that cards won’t go down, because dumping more money than they have into cards would be good for the portfolios of the people advising this. Pretty slimy.

To be very clear, I would never sincerely advise anyone to do anything remotely like this. I am also not advising people to sell cards and put it into stocks. Mine will be remaining with me until my death, at which point who knows where they go.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by G1911

There was a fairly long thread a few months ago where members in the pumper wing of the hobby were advising other members to do this or speaking positively about doing it, to drain their retirement accounts to invest in cards well after the peak. It was then followed by another thread where the pumpers also encouraged the taking out of loans to pay for cards that people couldn’t afford, and then getting upset at people who laughed at or questioned the reasonableness of this surely impartial advice.

The first paragraph of my post is a joke about the pumpers on the board who have been advocating people to do absolutely stupid things and promoting the narrative that cards won’t go down, because dumping more money than they have into cards would be good for the portfolios of the people advising this. Pretty slimy.

To be very clear, I would never sincerely advise anyone to do anything remotely like this. I am also not advising people to sell cards and put it into stocks. Mine will be remaining with me until my death, at which point who knows where they go.

Pumpers is not correct. "Fluffers" captures the reality of it a bit more accurately.

As for the last part of the post, we all know the answer:

When I die and they lay me to rest
Gonna go to the place that's the best
When they lay me down to die
Goin' up to the card show in the sky

Goin' up to the card show in the sky
That's where my cards go when I die
When I die and they lay me to rest
Take my cards to the place that's the best

Prepare yourself, you know it's a must
Gotta have a friend with a dealer pass
So you know that when you die
He's gonna get you into the card show in the sky

Whoa, he'll get you into the card show in the sky
That's where you're gonna go when you die
When you die, and they lay you to rest
You're gonna go to the show that's the best

Never been a sinner, I've never sinned
I've never collected shiny crap
So you know that when I die
I'm gonna get a dealer pass to the card show in the sky

Whoa, dealer pass for the card show in the sky (in Cleveland)
That's where I'm gonna go when I die (or maybe Chicago)
When I die and they lay me to rest (with my entire collection lining the casket like a Pharoah)
I'm gonna get into the show that's the best (on Tuesday)
Into the show that's the best (before all the good stuff is gone)

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Pumpers is not correct. "Fluffers" captures the reality of it a bit more accurately.

Your fluffer phrasing makes me a LOT more uncomfortable

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

As for the last part of the post, we all know the answer:

When I die and they lay me to rest
Gonna go to the place that's the best
When they lay me down to die
Goin' up to the card show in the sky

Goin' up to the card show in the sky
That's where my cards go when I die
When I die and they lay me to rest
Take my cards to the place that's the best

Prepare yourself, you know it's a must
Gotta have a friend with a dealer pass
So you know that when you die
He's gonna get you into the card show in the sky

Whoa, he'll get you into the card show in the sky
That's where you're gonna go when you die
When you die, and they lay you to rest
You're gonna go to the show that's the best

Never been a sinner, I've never sinned
I've never collected shiny crap
So you know that when I die
I'm gonna get a dealer pass to the card show in the sky

Whoa, dealer pass for the card show in the sky (in Cleveland)
That's where I'm gonna go when I die (or maybe Chicago)
When I die and they lay me to rest (with my entire collection lining the casket like a Pharoah)
I'm gonna get into the show that's the best (on Tuesday)
Into the show that's the best (before all the good stuff is gone)

The funeral parlor is going to have some questions when my heirs arrive with my corpse and thousands of T cards to glue around my casket. The low grade cards will match my rotting low grade corpse.

Or I’ll stamp my logo on the back of every one before my heirs sell them for $50 to whoever makes the first offer for the pile of junk I call a carefully curated collection.

The “G1911 Collection” pedigree on the PSA holders will be the first slab pedigree to definitively lower the value of the cards.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by G1911

The funeral parlor is going to have some questions when my heirs arrive with my corpse and thousands of T cards to glue around my casket.

I have something else in mind:

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I suspect a lot of it is coincidental or generational.

There are a lot of us old fart collectors who bought their collections decades ago for a pittance and have huge paper profits. Some are cashing in. Since we all travel in the same relatively small collector circles (I interact with maybe a thousand collectors between boards and in person dealings), a relatively small number of collectors from that core selling out looks like a stampede.

There is also the timing. The early and middle Boomers are at retirement age, and the late Boomers and early Gen X'ers are entering (if we are lucky) the wind-down phases of our careers and the downsizing of our lifestyles and needs. We are moving out of the big empty nests and into smaller spaces more suitable for couples. Part of that is the collection: either sell it off or pay to move it.

Great point(s) Adam. The Baby Boomer generation pretty much coincides exactly with the rise in card collecting brought on by the start of the continuing Topps and Bowman sets. Took the hobby from a more niche fascination with some to something generational that pretty much every kid growing up in the 50s, 60s, and into the 70s, remembers very well. Even though the majority of Baby Boomers never became big-time card collectors, pretty much every single one remembers the cards and opening packs at some point in their childhood. And as you said, as we're all getting near that point of retirement (if not already there), possibly along with seeing the somewhat ridiculous increases in prices during the pandemic, thinking about other things than one's cards may start to come to the fore.