Friends giving up collecting in 2023 - Post continuation

[raulus]

Originally Posted by G1911

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

Don’t forget all the loans you took out to buy more cardboard and are coming due soon!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by raulus

Don’t forget all the loans you took out to buy more cardboard and are coming due soon!

Ha, I’d forgotten about that. It’s a very good thing for my finances I have you to remind me. I hope the bank will take repayment in Mantle’s!

[packs]

Hard to say what a good time to sell is. My opinion is the only good time to sell is when you have something to sell for. Meaning a swap of some kind. As in, I want to make a down payment on a house, or anything else you need / want in your life.

What I would not recommend is selling your collection now just because prices seem high.

You never really know what high is. In the 90s people would have told you to sell all the Cobbs you can, people are paying a few hundred dollars a pop! Now those people regret everything.

[Snapolit1]

With Covid, working from home, general uncertainty, etc. . . . I think a lot of people really threw themselves into collecting as a fun way of combatting boredom. I know I did. As life has returned much closer to normal, many of us aren't quite as nailed to the Internet and home as we were. Assuming some degree of trading burnout is perfectly normal and that many people will tone it down from prior levels and reassess.

[Smarti5051]

I also think there is a bit to the scale of the price increases. If you were a collector 5 years ago, you could be deciding between a $400 nice looking Ty Cobb or $600 Babe Ruth vs a very modest vacation (which might be a weekend at a nearby hotel and a couple nice meals). Now, that same collector, looking at the same card options, would have to decide between the same cards at $2000-3000 vs a couple plane tickets out of state, a decent hotel, and some nice meals and activities - in other words, a "real" vacation. It makes it tougher for a collector on a budget to build his collection. Then, once you realize how much it is going to cost to continue to pursue your personal collection vs other options for the same money, it becomes even tougher to justify. Once you start down the slippery slope of not significantly adding to your collection and the realization that your original PC goals will never become reality, the temptation to just liquidate and make potential life changing money is real.

I suspect the collectors that are sticking it out are either individuals who have sufficient disposable income that pursuing their hobby does not limit their ability to enjoy other hobbies and travel, or collectors that have a focus on lower end or less sought after issues.

[Johnny630]

What the past two years have shown me is that this is a highly impulsive buyers Hobby.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What the past two years have shown me that this is a highly impulsive buyers Hobby.

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

Nothing does, you answered you're own question. It was 60% Fluff and 40% impulse FOMO Hype buyers who got caught up. Over this past recent year, 2022, someone in REA also paid $300,000K for a SGC 5 52 Mickey Mantle and in Memory Lane one in a PSA 2.5 sold for just under $90K. Does it make sense? No, but hey it happened, people got caught up in it.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

The Aaron RC is an interesting story. It stagnated for well over a decade (from the time I bought one in 1998 until just after I sold it 15 years later), then took off in the mid-teens pump and dump market manipulation and again in the pandemic. I would argue that it was undervalued substantially for years (when I owned one), then it caught up overnight, got overvalued in the pandemic run, and is on the way down towards equilibrium now. I still throw up in my mouth just a little when I see what they go for.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

It was $37k, not $27k (huge difference in terms of standard deviations away from the mean), and it was not a "really nice" copy. It was horribly off center for the grade. I remember seeing it and thinking, "How the hell did that get an 8?" and then thinking, "this card is going to bomb for sure".

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

I also think there is a bit to the scale of the price increases. If you were a collector 5 years ago, you could be deciding between a $400 nice looking Ty Cobb or $600 Babe Ruth vs a very modest vacation (which might be a weekend at a nearby hotel and a couple nice meals). Now, that same collector, looking at the same card options, would have to decide between the same cards at $2000-3000 vs a couple plane tickets out of state, a decent hotel, and some nice meals and activities - in other words, a "real" vacation. It makes it tougher for a collector on a budget to build his collection. Then, once you realize how much it is going to cost to continue to pursue your personal collection vs other options for the same money, it becomes even tougher to justify. Once you start down the slippery slope of not significantly adding to your collection and the realization that your original PC goals will never become reality, the temptation to just liquidate and make potential life changing money is real.

I suspect the collectors that are sticking it out are either individuals who have sufficient disposable income that pursuing their hobby does not limit their ability to enjoy other hobbies and travel, or collectors that have a focus on lower end or less sought after issues.

I think this a very plausible and reasonable take. It's one that I agree with. The collecting bug for me started again in the spring of 2019, prices were steady at this point. I could mostly afford anything that I wanted within reason. Maybe even swing for a big time purchase (a couple of thousand).

Now? It's a completely different story. I really have to pick and choose spots. There are bills to pay. And I'm sure many other collectors are facing this same issue.

[lampertb]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

With Covid, working from home, general uncertainty, etc. . . . I think a lot of people really threw themselves into collecting as a fun way of combatting boredom. I know I did. As life has returned much closer to normal, many of us aren't quite as nailed to the Internet and home as we were. Assuming some degree of trading burnout is perfectly normal and that many people will tone it down from prior levels and reassess.

All of which should result in the near future in falling prices, yes? Basic supply and demand stuff: if the market becomes oversaturated with T206 Cobbs because many people's priorities change simultaneously, then the current craziness might subside a bit.