Friends giving up collecting in 2023 - Post continuation

[Smarti5051]

I also think there is a bit to the scale of the price increases. If you were a collector 5 years ago, you could be deciding between a $400 nice looking Ty Cobb or $600 Babe Ruth vs a very modest vacation (which might be a weekend at a nearby hotel and a couple nice meals). Now, that same collector, looking at the same card options, would have to decide between the same cards at $2000-3000 vs a couple plane tickets out of state, a decent hotel, and some nice meals and activities - in other words, a "real" vacation. It makes it tougher for a collector on a budget to build his collection. Then, once you realize how much it is going to cost to continue to pursue your personal collection vs other options for the same money, it becomes even tougher to justify. Once you start down the slippery slope of not significantly adding to your collection and the realization that your original PC goals will never become reality, the temptation to just liquidate and make potential life changing money is real.

I suspect the collectors that are sticking it out are either individuals who have sufficient disposable income that pursuing their hobby does not limit their ability to enjoy other hobbies and travel, or collectors that have a focus on lower end or less sought after issues.

[Johnny630]

What the past two years have shown me is that this is a highly impulsive buyers Hobby.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What the past two years have shown me that this is a highly impulsive buyers Hobby.

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

Nothing does, you answered you're own question. It was 60% Fluff and 40% impulse FOMO Hype buyers who got caught up. Over this past recent year, 2022, someone in REA also paid $300,000K for a SGC 5 52 Mickey Mantle and in Memory Lane one in a PSA 2.5 sold for just under $90K. Does it make sense? No, but hey it happened, people got caught up in it.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Nothing does, you answered you're own question. It was 60% Fluff and 40% impulse FOMO Hype buyers who got caught up. Over this past recent year, 2022, someone in REA also paid $300,000K for a SGC 5 52 Mickey Mantle and in Memory Lane one in a PSA 2.5 sold for just under $90K. Does it make sense? No, but hey it happened, people got caught up in it.

Well that's because only 10 centered copies exist!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Well that's because only 10 centered copies exist!

Wait are you also one of the PUMPERS LOL

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

The Aaron RC is an interesting story. It stagnated for well over a decade (from the time I bought one in 1998 until just after I sold it 15 years later), then took off in the mid-teens pump and dump market manipulation and again in the pandemic. I would argue that it was undervalued substantially for years (when I owned one), then it caught up overnight, got overvalued in the pandemic run, and is on the way down towards equilibrium now. I still throw up in my mouth just a little when I see what they go for.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A really Nice 1954 aaron psa 8 sold in a major auction for 27k last week. Recent sales are between 40 and 75k. Less than a decade ago, it was a 7k card. Aside from his passing, what constitutes the price increase? Plenty of MOMO and FOMO investors that are going to be hurt if they need to sell. Even at 27k people are thinking twice as the only upside is if someone someday pays 50k for it!

It was $37k, not $27k (huge difference in terms of standard deviations away from the mean), and it was not a "really nice" copy. It was horribly off center for the grade. I remember seeing it and thinking, "How the hell did that get an 8?" and then thinking, "this card is going to bomb for sure".

[Leon]

Not a great looking 8.

Originally Posted by Snowman

It was $37k, not $27k (huge difference in terms of standard deviations away from the mean), and it was not a "really nice" copy. It was horribly off center for the grade. I remember seeing it and thinking, "How the hell did that get an 8?" and then thinking, "this card is going to bomb for sure".

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Snowman

It was $37k, not $27k (huge difference in terms of standard deviations away from the mean), and it was not a "really nice" copy. It was horribly off center for the grade. I remember seeing it and thinking, "How the hell did that get an 8?" and then thinking, "this card is going to bomb for sure".

This is the one that sold for 27k

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

I also think there is a bit to the scale of the price increases. If you were a collector 5 years ago, you could be deciding between a $400 nice looking Ty Cobb or $600 Babe Ruth vs a very modest vacation (which might be a weekend at a nearby hotel and a couple nice meals). Now, that same collector, looking at the same card options, would have to decide between the same cards at $2000-3000 vs a couple plane tickets out of state, a decent hotel, and some nice meals and activities - in other words, a "real" vacation. It makes it tougher for a collector on a budget to build his collection. Then, once you realize how much it is going to cost to continue to pursue your personal collection vs other options for the same money, it becomes even tougher to justify. Once you start down the slippery slope of not significantly adding to your collection and the realization that your original PC goals will never become reality, the temptation to just liquidate and make potential life changing money is real.

I suspect the collectors that are sticking it out are either individuals who have sufficient disposable income that pursuing their hobby does not limit their ability to enjoy other hobbies and travel, or collectors that have a focus on lower end or less sought after issues.

I think this a very plausible and reasonable take. It's one that I agree with. The collecting bug for me started again in the spring of 2019, prices were steady at this point. I could mostly afford anything that I wanted within reason. Maybe even swing for a big time purchase (a couple of thousand).

Now? It's a completely different story. I really have to pick and choose spots. There are bills to pay. And I'm sure many other collectors are facing this same issue.