2023 Contemporary Era Ballot Nominees

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If Belle had stuck around for 5 more mediocre years, would that really matter?

Playing more if you suck doesn’t help much. Playing more at league average can help reach major milestones and usually isn’t held against guys. Hence most HOFers have a late career falloff but still produce and only have 1-2 negative years at the end before they have to retire or be dropped.

Belles career, in the context of the HOF, is factually brief. If one thinks that shouldn’t matter and the Hall should be a reward of peaks instead of total career, that’s their argument to make. If Belle had had a normal length career, he would probably be in or at least gotten a sizable amount of votes. 41st in JAWS for his position is not exactly stellar, he ranks pretty low in most all career metrics because he didn’t play much.

[packs]

But that hasn’t hurt lesser sluggers like Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, or Ralph Kiner.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

But that hasn’t hurt lesser sluggers like Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, or Ralph Kiner.

They also had short careers and are in the bottom length tier of the Hall. For like the fifth time, I too would vote for Albert Belle. That does not mean his career was not brief, it was. The former is an opinion, the later a fact.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Was Snider that good for longer than 10 years?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Was Snider that good for longer than 10 years?

Yes. Belle at 10 credits his 109 OPS+, so Sniders streak ends with his 115+ year in 1963. By my quick count he has a 15 year straight run, 50% more.

[G1911]

As they are wildly different era's and its the bat that really matters for these two, here's the OPS+ count:

Seasons 170 or over OPS+: Belle 3 (1 was 194, only season over 179 for either), Snider 1.

Seasons 160 or over OPS+: Snider 3, Belle 3

Seasons 150 or over OPS+ Snider 4, Belle 4

Seasons 140 or over OPS+: Snider 7, Belle 6

Seasons 130 or over OPS+ Snider 11, Belle 7

Seasons 120 or over OPS+ Snider 13, Belle 8

Seasons 110 or over OPS+: Snider 15, Belle 9

Seasons 100 or over OPS: Snider 15, Belle 10

Seasons below 100 OPS+ (all partial): Belle 2, Snider 3

I don’t see in the dataset a case that Snider’s productive career was anywhere near Belle’s in length.

Belle’s absolute peak is perhaps a little better than Sniders, which is entirely independent of career length. He has the best single season, but after that it’s a draw until Snider’s longevity has him winning the bottom half by ~50% margins.

They do not seem to be similar type careers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes. Belle at 10 credits his 109 OPS+, so Sniders streak ends with his 115+ year in 1963. By my quick count he has a 15 year straight run, 50% more.

Looks to me he fell way off after 1957.

[packs]

Yeah that analysis of Snider may be factually correct but I think it's pretty misleading. After his 30th birthday, Duke Snider was pretty average at best. His OPS numbers are gaudy but not his actual numbers. From 1958 to 1964 he averaged 103 games, 72 hits,13 homers, and 47 RBIs despite still compiling an average OPS+ of 127.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Looks to me he fell way off after 1957.

1958: 126 OPS+
1959: 140 OPS+
1960: 134 OPS+
1961: 138 OPS+
1962: 148 OPS+
1963: 115 OPS+

What an amazing fall off! If these years don't count, well Belle's 10 years just became 5.