2023 Contemporary Era Ballot Nominees

[Peter_Spaeth]

Was Snider that good for longer than 10 years?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Was Snider that good for longer than 10 years?

Yes. Belle at 10 credits his 109 OPS+, so Sniders streak ends with his 115+ year in 1963. By my quick count he has a 15 year straight run, 50% more.

[G1911]

As they are wildly different era's and its the bat that really matters for these two, here's the OPS+ count:

Seasons 170 or over OPS+: Belle 3 (1 was 194, only season over 179 for either), Snider 1.

Seasons 160 or over OPS+: Snider 3, Belle 3

Seasons 150 or over OPS+ Snider 4, Belle 4

Seasons 140 or over OPS+: Snider 7, Belle 6

Seasons 130 or over OPS+ Snider 11, Belle 7

Seasons 120 or over OPS+ Snider 13, Belle 8

Seasons 110 or over OPS+: Snider 15, Belle 9

Seasons 100 or over OPS: Snider 15, Belle 10

Seasons below 100 OPS+ (all partial): Belle 2, Snider 3

I don’t see in the dataset a case that Snider’s productive career was anywhere near Belle’s in length.

Belle’s absolute peak is perhaps a little better than Sniders, which is entirely independent of career length. He has the best single season, but after that it’s a draw until Snider’s longevity has him winning the bottom half by ~50% margins.

They do not seem to be similar type careers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes. Belle at 10 credits his 109 OPS+, so Sniders streak ends with his 115+ year in 1963. By my quick count he has a 15 year straight run, 50% more.

Looks to me he fell way off after 1957.

[packs]

Yeah that analysis of Snider may be factually correct but I think it's pretty misleading. After his 30th birthday, Duke Snider was pretty average at best. His OPS numbers are gaudy but not his actual numbers. From 1958 to 1964 he averaged 103 games, 72 hits,13 homers, and 47 RBIs despite still compiling an average OPS+ of 127.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Looks to me he fell way off after 1957.

1958: 126 OPS+
1959: 140 OPS+
1960: 134 OPS+
1961: 138 OPS+
1962: 148 OPS+
1963: 115 OPS+

What an amazing fall off! If these years don't count, well Belle's 10 years just became 5.

[packs]

Look at all the numbers though. He did post an OPS+ of 148 in 1962 but he played 80 games and had 5 homers and 30 RBI's.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Look at all the numbers though. He did post an OPS+ of 148 in 1962 but he played 80 games and had 5 homers and 30 RBI's.

Are we taking out Belle's 194+ top mark because he played 106?

If you want to argue Belle's peak is better, I agree with you. That's why I would put Belle in, his peak was utterly fantastic and I think overcomes his brief career to make him worthy as a Puckett type HOFer.

If we want to argue their careers are similar trajectory or effective length, they are clearly not. Snider played over 600 games more and many more productive years.

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

Are we taking out Belle's 194+ top mark because he played 106?

If you want to argue Belle's peak is better, I agree with you. That's why I would put Belle in, his peak was utterly fantastic and I think overcomes his brief career to make him worthy as a Puckett type HOFer.

If we want to argue their careers are similar trajectory or effective length, they are clearly not. Snider played over 600 games more and many more productive years.

But why not talk about production AND OPS+? Belle's 106 game season was clearly superior. 1994 was a strike season. He didn't play 106 games because that's all he could be in the field for. And he hit 36 homers, drove in 101 runs, scored 90 runs while hitting 357.

Clearly leaps and bounds ahead of Snider's 80 game output.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

1958: 126 OPS+
1959: 140 OPS+
1960: 134 OPS+
1961: 138 OPS+
1962: 148 OPS+
1963: 115 OPS+

What an amazing fall off! If these years don't count, well Belle's 10 years just became 5.

Sure, but you're cherry picking. WAR?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Sure, but you're cherry picking. WAR?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...nidedu01.shtml

Keep in mind that Belle's "10 year elite" run includes WAR's of 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, and 0.6.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...nidedu01.shtml

Looks like a significant drop off there.