Comparing a cards scarcity/rarity to a T206 Wagner

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by BobC

Rarity has to do with the how many there actually is of an item. Scarcity has to do with how many of an item there is versus how many people want one (ie: demand). That is why I suggested somehow bringing in that demand factor to the numbers Pat had worked. Technically, what Pat is measuring is just the rarity of particular cards to the total number of all other cards in the same particular sets. It doesn't necessarily speak to how rare a particular card is to how many of each of all the other cards are out there. T206 Wagners are rare in relation to most all other T206 cards out there, but are by no means that rare when compared to all the other cards out there in all the other sets that have fewer existing cards than there are T206 Wagners. And there are an unbelievable number of very many cards that are much, much rarer than T206 Wagners are. But because so many people collect T206 cards and want/need that Wagner for their collection, the number of those Wagner cards that exist can't even come close to satisfying the demand for them, making them extremely scarce. Much more scarce than most all cards that are actually much rarer than a T206 Wagner.

To put it another way, if only one of a particular card exists, that is the rarest an item can be, a true one of one. But now say there is only one person in the whole world that really cares about and collects that card, and they go out and buy it. There was a total supply of only one of that card, and it completely satisfied the entire demand there was for that card. And since that one single card fully met the demand that was out there for it, the card isn't scarce at all. Extremely rare, yes, but scarce, absolutely not.

The bigger problem then is how do you actually measure and quantify that demand? And compounding it even further is how do you then accurately measure supply as well, and also take into consideration that just because supply exists, it doesn't mean it will always be made available for sale. In this regard, a card that is scarce, but not particularly rare, can be considered rare in regard to how often it becomes availabe for sale. And as others have pointed out, the use of just two TPG's pop reports is likely not a very accurate measure of supply in many cases. Interesting to talk about and discuss. Just not sure a wholly accurate formula or measure can be created to truly measure and compare a card's level of scarcity to that of other cards. Maybe the best and only real way we have to even somewhat accurately measure and compre scarcity among different cards is simply their price.

The demand is the tough part but you can get some kind of idea by comparing the information equally the E90-1 Mitchell and Dougherty are a good example some say the Mitchell is scarcer and others say the Dougherty is, no offense to the Mitchell group but Ed who is probably one of the most knowledgeable members on the set says that Dougherty is scarcer than Mitchell and all the numbers support that using the same sources to measure how many are graded and how often they come up for sale. The Mitchell in general probably gets more recognition for being scarce in the set so the demand on that aspect is probably higher for Mitchell but is it enough to balance out the scarcity and sales difference?

Population %

Dougherty 0.3016
Mitchell 0.4826

Cardtarget sales

Dougherty 11
Mitchell 49

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Pat R

The demand is the tough part but you can get some kind of idea by comparing the information equally the E90-1 Mitchell and Dougherty are a good example some say the Mitchell is scarcer and others say the Dougherty is, no offense to the Mitchell group but Ed who is probably one of the most knowledgeable members on the set says that Dougherty is scarcer than Mitchell and all the numbers support that using the same sources to measure how many are graded and how often they come up for sale. The Mitchell in general probably gets more recognition for being scarce in the set so the demand on that aspect is probably higher for Mitchell but is it enough to balance out the scarcity and sales difference?

Population %

Dougherty 0.3016
Mitchell 0.4826

Cardtarget sales

Dougherty 11
Mitchell 49

All great points Pat, this is a very interesting thread you started. It is one of those issues where it is virtually impossible to truly measure and somehow quantify all the different factors that can impact and influence any particular card's overall desirability and ultimately its price in the marketplace.

Rarity is the simple part of it, and extremely easy to measure and compare. If there is only one known example of card A, and two known of card B, it is empirically shown and proven that card A is the rarer card. But then if/when those two cards show up for sale, and card B always sells for some ridiculously higher price than card A, that clearly demonstrates card B is scarcer than card A as more people apparently want and have a greater desire/need for card B, as shown by the higher price they're willing to pay for it versus the rarer card A.

What creates this scarcity is the level of desire for something (demand) versus how easy it is to satisfy that desire (supply). Measuring/quantifying the reasons behind the obviously higher desire or demand for card B in my example is impossible though as there can be an almost infinite number of reasons someone may want or prefer it over card A. Ask 10 different people why they all want the same card, and you can very easily get 10 different answers. And the level of that desire or need also tremendously factors into the scarcity of an item.

As in the earlier discussion of the T206 Wagner versus the T206 Doyle N.Y. Nat'l card, you can possibly have a somewhat similar number of people want, need, and desire both cards, but different levels of that want, need, and desire will have them wanting one of those two cards more than the other. And regardless of which card is actually rarer, they'll ultimately show those different levels of want and desire (ie: demand) by how much more they're willing to pay for the card they want the most. And because of the almost infinite number of variables that can go into determining the public's reasons for their desire/need of a particular card, and the different levels of that desire/need that each person can then have, the prices people are willing to pay may be the only reasonable measure to somehow truly incorporate all the variables in determining the demand for a particular card, and thus its true scarcity.