Omnious sign in market?

[puckpaul]

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SGC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the best comp.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SHC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the beat comp.

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

Agree Howrd

[Snapolit1]

Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.

[Shoeless Moe]

Much better condition Program went for 2K less than same lesser condition one in Feb.

Feb Lelands $13,477 (Poor/Good condition)

https://auction.lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=108454

Sept Memory Lane $11,395 (Very Good condition)

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=71998

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.

Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!

I'm curious Howard,
How close did you get to a signed complete set?

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I'm curious Howard,
How close did you get to a signed complete set?

Hi Phil,

I never worked on a signed set? Am I missing something in my post?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

All I know is the items I am trying to buy are not going down. An auction item sells for one bid over the second highest bidder. It could be that the differences in price is because of a lack of second bidder. On odd ball items, two bidders can drive a price up and a second auction close to the record sale could end a lot lower even though the underbidder on the first is willing to pay a lot more.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by rats60

All I know is the items I am trying to buy are not going down. An auction item sells for one bid over the second highest bidder. It could be that the differences in price is because of a lack of second bidder. On odd ball items, two bidders can drive a price up and a second auction close to the record sale could end a lot lower even though the underbidder on the first is willing to pay a lot more.

This is the argument for private sales on scarce/esoteric items. If one person is willing to pay as high as X for a particular item and no other person is willing to pay over .5X then in an auction the item will go for one increment over .5X. In a private sale the item might go for X or very close.