Omnious sign in market?

[Snapolit1]

Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.

[Shoeless Moe]

Much better condition Program went for 2K less than same lesser condition one in Feb.

Feb Lelands $13,477 (Poor/Good condition)

https://auction.lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=108454

Sept Memory Lane $11,395 (Very Good condition)

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=71998

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.

Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!

I'm curious Howard,
How close did you get to a signed complete set?

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I'm curious Howard,
How close did you get to a signed complete set?

Hi Phil,

I never worked on a signed set? Am I missing something in my post?

[RhodeyRhode]

I don't think market is going at all, to me it seems there are so many quality items all flooding the auctions so people are waiting for the item they really want then are ponying up for it. Where as before not as many options gave people the fomo to hurry and bid since it might be a while before hits market again. The past 6 months the amount of rare items and cards up for auction has to be at a high, and for those not rare say the 33 ruth something in grades 2-5 seems to be going higher every auction. Just my opinion but probably way off

[Leon]

Originally Posted by RhodeyRhode

I don't think market is going at all, to me it seems there are so many quality items all flooding the auctions so people are waiting for the item they really want then are ponying up for it. Where as before not as many options gave people the fomo to hurry and bid since it might be a while before hits market again. The past 6 months the amount of rare items and cards up for auction has to be at a high, and for those not rare say the 33 ruth something in grades 2-5 seems to be going higher every auction. Just my opinion but probably way off

Items might be flooding the market, but in our space especially, the cards all have unique attributes so they aren't common even when there are hundreds or thousands of examples. The Goudey Ruth 144 is actually quite common. Show me one for sale that has 50/50 centering though. Those are a needle in a haystack.

Great stuff is appreciating and the mid to lower stuff is staying the same or having a slight reduction, imo...
.

[lumberjack]

As far as photographs go, the market is a mile wide and two inches deep.
There are guys who will spend more for a photo than Babe Ruth got from the Red Sox. It's just that they are pretty discriminating and there aren't many of them.

And taste, which changes over time. In our prior century, when Martha Stewart ruled, you couldn't afford brown furniture or Depression glass. Now you can't give it away. Younger people don't associate with furnishing a house that looks like something their grandmother would have owned.

Question is: Will this happen to cards; will someone be left holding the bag.
lumberjack

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Leon

Items might be flooding the market, but in our space especially, the cards all have unique attributes so they aren't common even when there are hundreds or thousands of examples. The Goudey Ruth 144 is actually quite common. Show me one for sale that has 50/50 centering though. Those are a needle in a haystack.

Great stuff is appreciating and the mid to lower stuff is staying the same or having a slight reduction, imo...
.

This is the key. I don't think most collectors quite realize the extent to which this is true. I went through every single 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson card, one-by-one on VCP, and tallied up the number of cards that were dead 50/50 centered and the number that were fairly close, but just slightly off (say 48/52 one way and 50/50 the other). There were ~1,000 sales to comb through (note, I only looked at non-creased cards, mostly VG/VG-EX or better). Out of those ~1,000, there were 9 (yes NINE) dead-centered copies and only 22 that were close. Obviously, the Jackies don't have the exact same pop report as the Mantle, but it should be a directionally accurate approximation for it since the two cards were next to each other on the sheets, both being double printed.

As you said. Finding a 52T Mantle is easy. Finding a centered one? Good luck with that.