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  #1  
Old 09-11-2022, 03:24 PM
hcv123 hcv123 is offline
Howard Chasser
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Default Interesting example

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.
Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!
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I have been a Net 54 member since 2009 and have an Ebay store since 1998 https://www.ebay.com/usr/favorite_things

Cards for sale: https://www.flickr.com/photos/185900663@N07/albums

I am actively buying and selling vintage sports cards graded and raw. Feedback as a buyer: https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=297262

I am accepting select private consignments of quality vintage cards (raw or graded) and collecting "want" lists for higher end ($1K+) vintage cards.

Last edited by hcv123; 09-11-2022 at 03:26 PM.
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  #2  
Old 09-11-2022, 03:40 PM
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Casey2296 Casey2296 is online now
Is Mudville so bad?
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Originally Posted by hcv123 View Post
Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!
I'm curious Howard,
How close did you get to a signed complete set?
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  #3  
Old 09-12-2022, 02:54 PM
hcv123 hcv123 is offline
Howard Chasser
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I'm curious Howard,
How close did you get to a signed complete set?
Hi Phil,

I never worked on a signed set? Am I missing something in my post?
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I have been a Net 54 member since 2009 and have an Ebay store since 1998 https://www.ebay.com/usr/favorite_things

Cards for sale: https://www.flickr.com/photos/185900663@N07/albums

I am actively buying and selling vintage sports cards graded and raw. Feedback as a buyer: https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=297262

I am accepting select private consignments of quality vintage cards (raw or graded) and collecting "want" lists for higher end ($1K+) vintage cards.
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  #4  
Old 09-12-2022, 04:04 PM
RhodeyRhode RhodeyRhode is offline
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I don't think market is going at all, to me it seems there are so many quality items all flooding the auctions so people are waiting for the item they really want then are ponying up for it. Where as before not as many options gave people the fomo to hurry and bid since it might be a while before hits market again. The past 6 months the amount of rare items and cards up for auction has to be at a high, and for those not rare say the 33 ruth something in grades 2-5 seems to be going higher every auction. Just my opinion but probably way off
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  #5  
Old 09-13-2022, 09:00 AM
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Leon Leon is offline
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Originally Posted by RhodeyRhode View Post
I don't think market is going at all, to me it seems there are so many quality items all flooding the auctions so people are waiting for the item they really want then are ponying up for it. Where as before not as many options gave people the fomo to hurry and bid since it might be a while before hits market again. The past 6 months the amount of rare items and cards up for auction has to be at a high, and for those not rare say the 33 ruth something in grades 2-5 seems to be going higher every auction. Just my opinion but probably way off
Items might be flooding the market, but in our space especially, the cards all have unique attributes so they aren't common even when there are hundreds or thousands of examples. The Goudey Ruth 144 is actually quite common. Show me one for sale that has 50/50 centering though. Those are a needle in a haystack.

Great stuff is appreciating and the mid to lower stuff is staying the same or having a slight reduction, imo...
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Last edited by Leon; 09-13-2022 at 09:01 AM.
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  #6  
Old 09-13-2022, 10:06 AM
lumberjack lumberjack is offline
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Default the end is near...?

As far as photographs go, the market is a mile wide and two inches deep.
There are guys who will spend more for a photo than Babe Ruth got from the Red Sox. It's just that they are pretty discriminating and there aren't many of them.

And taste, which changes over time. In our prior century, when Martha Stewart ruled, you couldn't afford brown furniture or Depression glass. Now you can't give it away. Younger people don't associate with furnishing a house that looks like something their grandmother would have owned.

Question is: Will this happen to cards; will someone be left holding the bag.
lumberjack
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  #7  
Old 09-13-2022, 12:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon View Post
Items might be flooding the market, but in our space especially, the cards all have unique attributes so they aren't common even when there are hundreds or thousands of examples. The Goudey Ruth 144 is actually quite common. Show me one for sale that has 50/50 centering though. Those are a needle in a haystack.

Great stuff is appreciating and the mid to lower stuff is staying the same or having a slight reduction, imo...
.
This is the key. I don't think most collectors quite realize the extent to which this is true. I went through every single 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson card, one-by-one on VCP, and tallied up the number of cards that were dead 50/50 centered and the number that were fairly close, but just slightly off (say 48/52 one way and 50/50 the other). There were ~1,000 sales to comb through (note, I only looked at non-creased cards, mostly VG/VG-EX or better). Out of those ~1,000, there were 9 (yes NINE) dead-centered copies and only 22 that were close. Obviously, the Jackies don't have the exact same pop report as the Mantle, but it should be a directionally accurate approximation for it since the two cards were next to each other on the sheets, both being double printed.

As you said. Finding a 52T Mantle is easy. Finding a centered one? Good luck with that.

Last edited by Snowman; 09-13-2022 at 12:43 PM.
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  #8  
Old 09-13-2022, 12:42 PM
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As far as the differences in hammer price between the SGC 5 Mantle that recently sold on REA for $306k and the one that sold on Goldin the other night for $146k, I think it's actually pretty straight-forward.

The $306k example looks like a true 5 condition-wise. It is in EX condition. And, most importantly, it is dead-centered left to right with no tilt. For centering-obsessed OCDers like me, that L/R centering is often far more important than top/bottom centering. Buyers will pay a significant premium for the centering on this Mantle.

Contrast that with the $146k Mantle, and you can clearly see an evil tilt to the image, most noticeable on the left edge. Image tilt is the spawn of Satan to centering OCD collectors. It's not enough for the image to be in or near the middle of the card. The lines need to be parallel and border widths equal. Sure, the one on the right I would still expect to outsell a comparably conditioned card with a more significant shift in centering, but this isn't a card that eye-appeal guys are going to be jumping up and down for, whereas the one on the left most definitely is.

However, there's one more factor that surely played into the hammer price here. That SGC "5" on the right from Goldin is NOT an EX card. Those bottom two corners would NEVER grade at a 5 today. Not from PSA or SGC. This card was graded back in 2014, when standards were quite a bit looser (whereas the one on the left was graded in 2019). High-end vintage buyers are getting smarter. They know the one on the left is EX and the one on the right is a VG-EX card wearing an SGC 5 tuxedo. They're bidding accordingly. It's the other side of the same coin for why I keep having to "overpay" when I find cards that are under-graded.

Here they are side-by-side. You can decide for yourselves whether or not the differences are worth an extra $160k, but the centering difference is worth a lot, and the fact that one is EX while the other is VG-EX is probably worth a lot more, in my opinion.

Also, the one on the left is a Type 1 Mantle, and the one on the right is the Type 2 (and supposedly less desireable). Though I think this matters less than people argue.
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Last edited by Snowman; 09-13-2022 at 12:47 PM.
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