Omnious sign in market?

[Johnny630]

What Happened to $306,000 last month in REA on an SGC 5 Now a 5 Sells for $146,000 Tonight? Was the other card in REA with 150,000 plus more cause had a little nicer corners and centering maybe but to me, it’s a bridge too far. I think last month was an outlier. There is still hope for us mere mortals who do not own a 311 52 Mickey.

[ullmandds]

I see an e126 ruth in mem lane in psa 4 almost 80K...some cards are rocketing to the moon...still.

[puckpaul]

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SGC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the best comp.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SHC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the beat comp.

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

Agree Howrd

[Snapolit1]

Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.

[Shoeless Moe]

Much better condition Program went for 2K less than same lesser condition one in Feb.

Feb Lelands $13,477 (Poor/Good condition)

https://auction.lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=108454

Sept Memory Lane $11,395 (Very Good condition)

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=71998

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Howard - great post. I think like real estate, there is no one market, but as you say different markets serving different interests. It always strikes me that people will cite some crazy ass sales of high end cards as evidence everything is soaring. It's not. A lot of segments of the market have stalled, some have gone down little, and some have dropped a lot. I also think as collectors we overestimate the number of people on the hunt for what we want. Take a really nice card like a $25,000 Ruth Goudey. At any given time there might be 20 people in total looking earnestly to acquire that. Sure, lots of people nibbling around the edges, but really ready wiling and able to pony up $25,000 tomorrow? 10? 12? 8? Less than you might think. And if 5 or 6 sold in the last two or three months or last week, you could see a lot less competition (and drops in prices) develop quickly.

Thanks Steve!

While I certainly stand by my original post, I'm not sure I agree with the 33 Ruth as a good illustration. Ruth (ESPECIALLY the high demand 33 Goudey's) in my experience happens to be a card where I believe there are considerably more people ready and willing to plunk down low-mid 5 figures than any of us would believe. I have bought and sold 33 Ruth's from graded 1's - to graded 5.5's. I am picky about nice eye appeal examples, but have so far, always sold them quickly for strong prices. Now if you want to talk about the high end of the market Like graded 7's and higher in the 6 figure range, perhaps I would join you, but then again, they didn't get to 6 figure cards (with multiple sales) by just a couple of guys chasing them! BTW I do have a #144 PSA 8 on consignment if anyone is looking!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

All I know is the items I am trying to buy are not going down. An auction item sells for one bid over the second highest bidder. It could be that the differences in price is because of a lack of second bidder. On odd ball items, two bidders can drive a price up and a second auction close to the record sale could end a lot lower even though the underbidder on the first is willing to pay a lot more.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by rats60

All I know is the items I am trying to buy are not going down. An auction item sells for one bid over the second highest bidder. It could be that the differences in price is because of a lack of second bidder. On odd ball items, two bidders can drive a price up and a second auction close to the record sale could end a lot lower even though the underbidder on the first is willing to pay a lot more.

This is the argument for private sales on scarce/esoteric items. If one person is willing to pay as high as X for a particular item and no other person is willing to pay over .5X then in an auction the item will go for one increment over .5X. In a private sale the item might go for X or very close.

[Snowman]

I've never even heard of SCP Auctions until I read this thread. So there's that.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I see an e126 ruth in mem lane in psa 4 almost 80K...some cards are rocketing to the moon...still.

Yah, one with paper loss on the front

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Yah, one with paper loss on the front

I didn't even notice that...it looked overgraded by todays standards regardless. makes me even happier to have this at 1/15th the price!

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What Happened to $306,000 last month in REA on an SGC 5 Now a 5 Sells for $146,000 Tonight? Was the other card in REA with 150,000 plus more cause had a little nicer corners and centering maybe but to me, it’s a bridge too far. I think last month was an outlier. There is still hope for us mere mortals who do not own a 311 52 Mickey.

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

Assuming the winner of the REA example was bidding against actual bidders who wanted to win the card, I suppose it is entirely possible that nobody but 2 bidders were going for it once it got to 150ish?

I have not looked closely at images of the two cards so simply going off of what has been suggested here--that the cards were pretty close in condition. If they are similar examples then I would not feel great as the buyer of the REA example.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

+1. I told a friend this exact same thing today. Outlier sales happen. I just wish it would be on my consignments (not specific to any AH)....
.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

I suspect a couple of collectors with cash to burn decided that this was their turn to get one. So they went nuts until one of them finally decided to throw in the towel. Naturally, if the underbidder ended up getting this next one, then it worked out well for him in the end.

[MVSNYC]

Just as we start to question the market...these two cards remind us just how crazy things still are...

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Just as we start to question the market...these two cards remind us just how crazy things still are...

The set break loophole to the eBay AG program appears to have closed?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The set break loophole to the eBay AG program appears to have closed?

I noticed that the set break loophole is gone too. I think even Greg Morris is authenticating their high value raw cards now.

[MVSNYC]

What's this about set break on eBay? Don't know about it.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I noticed that the set break loophole is gone too. I think even Greg Morris is authenticating their high value raw cards now.

Yes, Greg Morris confirmed...

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The set break loophole to the eBay AG program appears to have closed?

Set Break in the title still works. Appears Greg Morris has to hyphenate the two words now which makes the cards eligible for the AG program.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Set Break in the title still works. Appears Greg Morris has to hyphenate the two words now which makes the cards eligible for the AG program.

Saw this listing that had "Set Break" in the title but also required the "Authenticity Guarantee" so I thought the loophole wasn't working.

[jamest206]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Just as we start to question the market...these two cards remind us just how crazy things still are...

I bid on both-as well as the O’Hara, based on the PSA 1 sold last month. The 1.5 sold for over 7k- and I was hoping for a deal at 5k. LMFAO. There is no downturn in the market- and this week has-is-and will prove it!!

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Just as we start to question the market...these two cards remind us just how crazy things still are...

I can’t speak to the Lundgren but I bet the person who overbid on the Cy Young had decided a week ago that they would go after that card due to the high eye appeal. I bet they had a target bid in mind that they thought would surely win. I’d also bet that after spending 5.5 hours in bumper to bumper traffic and then soothing that frustration with some strong IPA’s and then seeing their high bid not hold up they frantically hit the next bid increment with 1 second left because they wanted something to go right yesterday. Just a guess though.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I can’t speak to the Lundgren but I bet the person who overbid on the Cy Young had decided a week ago that they would go after that card due to the high eye appeal. I bet they had a target bid in mind that they thought would surely win. I’d also bet that after spending 5.5 hours in bumper to bumper traffic and then soothing that frustration with some strong IPA’s and then seeing their high bid not hold up they frantically hit the next bid increment with 1 second left because they wanted something to go right yesterday. Just a guess though.

That Cy Young was bought for the aesthetics, not the number. Same way a lot of us collect or buy. I always buy the card and not the slab. It's better in the long run.
.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Leon

That Cy Young was bought for the aesthetics, not the number. Same way a lot of us collect or buy. I always buy the card and not the slab. It's better in the long run.
.

It 100% was. Thats why I put in that last frantic bid. It's an upgrade to my current Cy Young of the same grade.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I can’t speak to the Lundgren but I bet the person who overbid on the Cy Young had decided a week ago that they would go after that card due to the high eye appeal. I bet they had a target bid in mind that they thought would surely win. I’d also bet that after spending 5.5 hours in bumper to bumper traffic and then soothing that frustration with some strong IPA’s and then seeing their high bid not hold up they frantically hit the next bid increment with 1 second left because they wanted something to go right yesterday. Just a guess though.

Nice…lol