Auction amounts - how high is high

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This ^^ +100%

I am 47, and love the players and cards from the late 1890s-1920s. I never saw any of them. My parents never saw any of them. I am pretty sure my grandparents barely (if at all) saw any of them. Very few people alive today, let alone on net54, ever saw these players. Yet t206s, 1914 CJs, etc are as coveted as ever.

And it’s not just baseball players. George Washington and Abe Lincoln items sell for a lot more than Kennedy and FDR, yet whoever is buying them never even had a chance to meet Washington’s great great niece.

I think the argument that “nobody will be into these guys bc they have never seen them” has been proven wrong time and time again. But you do you and I will do me. Each to their own

I didn't say this, not sure if anyone did. What I'm saying is there will be a dramatic drop in collectors of vintage in 30 years. You being 47 is right on that bubble. You ain't a spring chicken and you ain't an old fart. But you were in the era of the baseball card collecting boom - the 80's. Let's call it the pre-cell phone ERA.

And I'm not say ALL interest will be gone. I'm saying now you have about 75% who collect vintage 50 (maybe 47 and older. 25% who collect vintage 50 and under. So in 20-30 years that 75% will be all but gone, and I just don't see the 25% expanding to 75%. I see it holding steady, and even possibly dropping.....or maybe it does expand, but if so maybe to 35% give or take.

I think there will come a time there will be a lot less people in the swimming pool. Now it's over crowded. But we have already seen some get out from 2021. Still more in then 2019, but through attrition the numbers will change.

Also, in 30 years people might be spending their money on cars that do things we've yet to see, and trips in a rocket ship to outer space and back. Would you trade a '52 Mantle for a trip to into space and back? Would you rather have a material thing or an experience? I think the younger generation will opt for the experience. And for those in 30 years will they want to show off a Lebron Triple Logo do-hickey or a Mordecai Brown? We are still in that group that studied and read about the game even though we didn't see them play. Are the next generation doing much reading on the history of the game?

We are still in the boom, and collecting is still on fire, so somewhat hard to imagine, but I think there is a strong possibility prices could come down if the cards fall as they might.

[Casey2296]

You make some good points Paul and it's one aspect of the market. The beautiful thing about the run up coinciding with aging out is the plethora of high quality rare baseball cards that money brings out, whether it's due to death (uncle jimmy), or taking advantage of the market (David Hall), but the cards available right now on a fairly consistent basis is incredible. Quite frankly I don't care what my collection is worth when I'm dead, my kids will open 4-5 suitcases of cards reflecting my collecting journey, they'll know how important baseball was in my life and hopefully say "Jesus, he built a pretty solid collection".

Of course they'll be saying it to Al Crisafulli's kids as they consign it cuz Al and I will both be sleeping with the fishes.

Does money matter? You betcha, but as a collector it's way down on the list when you compare it to the relationships formed in this hobby and on this sub with old time guys, young folks catching the pre-war fever, and everything in between.

Pre war is like beachfront property, they ain't making anymore of it...

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Pre war is like beachfront property, they ain't making anymore of it...

This ^^^^^^^

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

This ^^^^^^^

Correct, but there will come a day when that beachfront property is in the ocean.

The question is not how much of it there is (although in another thread wasn't there yet another find?)....so they may not be making more, but again as that certain age group who grew up in the 60's 70's and 80's die off these "hoards/finds" come to light because their families don't want or care about the cards.

So again not that they are making more, but that the pool for those that want it will thin, and the age group that is currently holding the vast majority of it is in that 75% age group of over 50, so more will become available to a smaller group that wants it.

It's not like it's imminent, but it's coming. In the meantime some cards will see record prices, others will fall in price. The current swimming pool is packed so nothing changing dramatically in the immediate future.

[mrreality68]

the one advantage of the cycle of collectors and cards is that many cards that have not been seen, sold, or traded in an extremely long time have starting coming up for sale(as some want to profit off the surge or as they start dispersing their collections for whatever reason(age, health, retirement, etc)) and this has resulted in an opportunity for collectors to get cards they never thought they would see or get a chance to own.

When those come up especially the key players or key cards it becomes a frenzy for it and the demand goes up and the prices goes with it accordingly.

[cardsagain74]

The whole "once the bug bites you, that's it" assumption of steady high demand is far from infallible.

Anyone who set up at card shows around 1994 can attest to that. The junk wax "bug" fell off a cliff in a hurry.

[BKaufmann14]

Figured since I live close to wrigley now might as well add this puppy to the collection. First Carolina Brights in the PC.