Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

David Wright hits the ballot in 2024. He’s got fantastic rate stats at an underrepresented position and is a New York favorite.

Just not seeing it as even a possibility.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Gray Ink
Batting - 88 (331), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 74 (283), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 36 (211), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Third Base (24th):
49.2 career WAR | 39.5 7yr-peak WAR | 44.3 JAWS | 5.0 WAR/162
Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

[BearBailey]

So harper is likely and machado is too soon to tell with better stats? Not to mention the defensive differences... sure Harper has 2 MVPs but Machado has the stats. Machado injuries were early in his career, Harpers are annually.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Just not seeing it as even a possibility.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Gray Ink
Batting - 88 (331), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 74 (283), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 36 (211), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Third Base (24th):
49.2 career WAR | 39.5 7yr-peak WAR | 44.3 JAWS | 5.0 WAR/162
Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

I don’t support his candidacy, but he’s close enough among 3B that his NY fan favorite status will get him considerable votes.

[rugbymarine]

Really enjoying the discussion, but this thread needs some cards!

1997 Bowman Chrome is underrated as a one of the better looking sets from the era. Love this Beltre RC.

[molenick]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don’t support his candidacy, but he’s close enough among 3B that his NY fan favorite status will get him considerable votes.

Sometimes being a NY fan favorite can help (Rizzuto, Hodges, Lazzeri, Combs, Gomez) but other times it doesn't help (Munson, Mattingly, Posada, Bernie Williams, Pettite, Hernandez). [Not meant as an extensive list...just names that came to mind.]

According to Baseball Reference, the most similar player to Kirby Puckett (first ballot) was Don Mattingly (topped out at 28%). I give credit to Puckett for playing a more important defensive position and for the post season...but Mattingly has an MVP and he was (and remains) a very popular player among Yankee fans.

Edited to add: I think it may help more in the Veteran's Committee where you basically need a favorable balance of people to get you in (like the Frankie Frisch years that got in Jesse Haines and George Kelly). I don't think it helps with the writers, who are from all over the country and where a pro-NY bias may be balanced by some anti-NY votes (or non-votes).

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by molenick

According to Baseball Reference, the most similar player to Kirby Puckett (first ballot) was Don Mattingly (topped out at 28%). I give credit to Puckett for playing a more important defensive position and for the post season...but Mattingly has an MVP and he was (and remains) a very popular player among Yankee fans.

They're similar but not. Puckett got in because his career ended in an instant when he was still a great player at a high leverage defensive position. Mattingly hung around for years as a not-great (overall) 1B with little power. Kirby was a great player for 10 years and still going strong at retirement. Mattingly was great for 6 and was below average offensively while playing the easiest defensive position by the end.

[molenick]

Fair enough. I'm not a big fan of Mattingly getting in (I think Hernandez should be in before him)...just that he was a very popular NY player and not a terrible candidate and that never got him over 30%.

I'm guessing Wright tops out in the 20s...the rate stats are good but not good enough to make up for the low counting stats. A Mets HOFer but not an MLB HOFer. Third base is under-represented, but Rolen is creeping up each year and Beltre is a lock.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by molenick

Fair enough. I'm not a big fan of Mattingly getting in (I think Hernandez should be in before him)...just that he was a very popular NY player and not a terrible candidate and that never got him over 30%.

I'm guessing Wright tops out in the 20s...the rate stats are good but not good enough to make up for the low counting stats. A Mets HOFer but not an MLB HOFer. Third base is under-represented, but Rolen is creeping up each year and Beltre is a lock.

Hernandez should be in....11 Gold Gloves, the most of any 1st baseman.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Svabinsky78

Hernandez should be in....11 Gold Gloves, the most of any 1st baseman.

And 162 homers.

If you start a 1B's HOF case talking about his defense, he doesn't belong.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by molenick

Sometimes being a NY fan favorite can help (Rizzuto, Hodges, Lazzeri, Combs, Gomez) but other times it doesn't help (Munson, Mattingly, Posada, Bernie Williams, Pettite, Hernandez). [Not meant as an extensive list...just names that came to mind.]

According to Baseball Reference, the most similar player to Kirby Puckett (first ballot) was Don Mattingly (topped out at 28%). I give credit to Puckett for playing a more important defensive position and for the post season...but Mattingly has an MVP and he was (and remains) a very popular player among Yankee fans.

Edited to add: I think it may help more in the Veteran's Committee where you basically need a favorable balance of people to get you in (like the Frankie Frisch years that got in Jesse Haines and George Kelly). I don't think it helps with the writers, who are from all over the country and where a pro-NY bias may be balanced by some anti-NY votes (or non-votes).

Munson and Mattingly are good examples of what I'm talking about. Popular captain/leader of a NY team generates more HOF votes than they'd otherwise get. Mattingly is a 42 WAR 1B whose career nosedived at 28. He remains one of the most bought up 'when is he getting in' players though.

I'll bet Wright gets significant voting.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don’t support his candidacy, but he’s close enough among 3B that his NY fan favorite status will get him considerable votes.

never mind point made by others

[eastonfalcon19]

Billy Wagner should be in. Not sure if anybody mentioned him or not.

[YankeeHotelFoxtrot]

Molina is a lock.

[Misunderestimated]

An interesting candidate with a 2014 debut -- Cuban Jose Abreu with the White Sox. He is "old" in that he started his career in Cuba before he made to the US. Abreu has started out 2022 really slow but he's put up some big numbers so far in his career and he's got a great story as player. I can see him getting in the HOF some day depending on how long he can keep putting playing well. Obviously he's "too soon to tell" but worth watching.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by eastonfalcon19

Billy Wagner should be in. Not sure if anybody mentioned him or not.

If you're going to put in 1-inning closers - something I don't really fully support - Wagner should be in.

[Casey2296]

I think Posey might get 1st ballot, as a Catcher, nice guy image, 3WS championships, ROY, MVP, etc. And considering the last true Giant to get inducted by the BBWAA was Gaylord Perry in 1991 it's time to put another Giant in the Hall.

[Svabinsky78]

1995 Beltran (should be a lock....)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (lock....not just likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (lock....maybe not Scherzer, Verlander, or Kershaw, but is one of the best of his era)
2002 Votto (lock)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (no)
2004 Molina (lock)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (lock)
2011 Altuve (likely.....if he continues to produce)
2011 Freeman (likely)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (disagree.....likely...Goldie may not be a first ballot, but he is going in....great first baseman....7 ASs, MVP, bunch of Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves)
2012 Harper (likely.....if he continues to produce and does not have a career ending injury in the next couple of years)
2013 Arenado (look at his hardware.....not too soon to tell.....very likely)
2013 Machado (likely)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell)
2014 Betts (likely)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely.... unfortunately for him, he started too late and is too injury prone)

Schilling will eventually get in as well....his "issues"....do not have anything to do with his performance...... people will eventually get over it.....

You have folks like Landis, Anson, Cobb, Speaker, Hornsby, Slaughter, and others in who were just flat out racists, bigots, who objected integration, were on record making disparaging remarks about black players, etc.

[BioCRN]

Greinke will be interesting because if he gets into the HOF (most likely should) he'll be representing KC and his 41%-ish win percentage with them.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Greinke will be interesting because if he gets into the HOF (most likely should) he'll be representing KC and his 41%-ish win percentage with them.

Greinke is not an "if"......he is a lock....maybe not first ballot.....but he is for sure getting in..... he is a hair shy of 3000 Ks

[cliffyb]

I think Altuve (over 2000 H, 3 batting titles, high WAR, etc.), Freeman (2000 H with what looks like many more to come, etc.) both get in. Arenado looks good too as he’s got ten 10 GGs and 5 Platinum gloves (unofficial perhaps I know but still impressive) and he’s continued to be a run producer after leaving Coors Field. And Betts will get in. Very high WAR, only 30 and still productive. And he can play middle infield as well! Remember, these guys can also cruise at DH and pile up the numbers towards the end of their careers if desired.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by eastonfalcon19

Billy Wagner should be in. Not sure if anybody mentioned him or not.

He'll get in within the next couple of years....

[cliffyb]

I think Betts (very high WAR and still only 30, etc.), Altuve (2000 H, high WAR, 3 batting titles, etc.), Freeman (2000 H with more to come, MVP, etc.) and Arenado (10 GGs, 5 Platinum Gloves, still a run producer after leaving Coors Field, etc.) are all going to get in. And Sabathia will get in because who else is going to win 250 games?

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by cliffyb

And Sabathia will get in because who else is going to win 250 games?

Justin Verlander has 255 wins.

Brian

[cliffyb]

Great topic. FWIW:

Betts is a lock. Currently at 72 WAR but more importantly, to the naked eye, a great player who is a winner. 3x WS, 6x GG, one MVP and three times finished second in the voting, a total team player who willingly plays (and excels at) multiple positions (take that Mr. Devers).

Freeman a lock. Lot of bold ink, winner, MVP, clutch player

Yadier Molina a lock. 2x WS, 10x AS, 9x GG (inc. 4 Platinum), 2100+ hits and .277 career batting avg., both very good for a career catcher.

Arenado a lock. His offensive numbers are good enough (346 HR) and he has 10 GG, including 6 Platinum.

deGrom is a fave of my family but he could be an interesting case. If he can accumulate more wins (at least 100 career) and top-5 CY voting with low ERA, etc. then I think he’ll get in as he is, when healthy, dominant. If he were to retire today then perhaps he’s a no. Unfortunately, pitchers are what they are today so the standards are different. I’m still trying to figure out why pitchers suffer so many more major injuries now when they seemingly throw fewer pitches and are babied so much more than generations ago. Let’s make that a topic for a different day!

[cgjackson222]

If Chris Sale has another Cy Young caliber season, he could get in.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

If Chris Sale has another Cy Young caliber season, he could get in.

I will add him to the list, good one.