Are vintage basketball cards market saturated?

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

No doubt, MODERN basketball is saturated. Still hard to find much of the vintage stuff, i.e. pre-1975

[aconte]

The prices can't keep going straight up forever.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by aconte

The prices can't keep going straight up forever.

Definitely right. Seen a lot of speculators grab up 86 Fleer in hopes of striking gold. Unfortunately, those prices have fallen like a rock. Too much supply and now little demand.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Definitely right. Seen a lot of speculators grab up 86 Fleer in hopes of striking gold. Unfortunately, those prices have fallen like a rock. Too much supply and now little demand.

I agree there is a large supply of 1986 Fleer basketball, but "fallen like a rock"? Maybe a slight cool down, but I haven't seen that. Folks are still paying $200 for a PSA 8 Larry Bird, >$1,000 for a PSA 9 Barkley, and Jordan still strong. Agreed, not at its highest level, but still pretty high for that issue.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

No doubt, MODERN basketball is saturated. Still hard to find much of the vintage stuff, i.e. pre-1975

This here.

The vintage is limited and I agree that this playing the game by auction house musical chairs. I think a market correction in all sports will take place in the next couple years as collectables are going to get hit hard as a tax shelter with the 600 dollar reporting. Modern will get designated as 90s junk wax values for 2015+ and vintage will go back to the prices of 5 years ago. Personal opinion.

[rjackson44]

Ive been buying vintage hockey i love it . Not easy

[BobC]

Originally Posted by JustinD

This here.

The vintage is limited and I agree that this playing the game by auction house musical chairs. I think a market correction in all sports will take place in the next couple years as collectables are going to get hit hard as a tax shelter with the 600 dollar reporting. Modern will get designated as 90s junk wax values for 2015+ and vintage will go back to the prices of 5 years ago. Personal opinion.

Makes a lot of sense, but not so sure about the vintage dropping back so much, depending on what your definition of vintage is now. Can see the modern stuff cooling off a bit, like back in the '90s. But thinking that maybe out of a lot of the new collectors and money that have been coming into the hobby on the modern side, if that modern side does start to falter and collapse a bit, we'll find that not all the new blood was strictly investors and not collectors. I would expect that some portion of these new collectors, albeit maybe just a small portion, will truly get bit by the collecting bug, and as a result, gravitate over to vintage. Just like a lot of us here on this forum started out.

Can see the high-end vintage coming down a bit, like a lot of it has already started to in some cases this past year. But that would likely be due to changes in the thinking of the high-end investors. Don't feel the lower grade vintage will take a similar hit. Can see some fallback, but not nearly as much as the high-end stuff may see. I feel the true collectors, plus whatever new ones get added to the ranks from the recent surge in collecting popularity, will keep the vintage market a lot less volatile.

And because a lot of this increased modern card popularity is in football and basketball, can see vintage for both of those sports getting a nice boost as well, as some of the modern collectors start looking back.