Are vintage basketball cards market saturated?

[chriskim]

Thx for the analysis, i guess whoever paid $350k for it only bought a PSA 9 holder.

[slightlyrounded]

Originally Posted by chriskim

Thx for the analysis, i guess whoever paid $350k for it only bought a PSA 9 holder.

Well, since their ask didn't get hit they technically haven't lost a penny yet! "Only too soon, never too much" and all that.

[Exhibitman]

There's a lot of Fleer in nice shape (notwithstanding centering), more so than Bowman or 1957 Topps. Pre-1969 basketball is a backwater of regional, local and team issues, since there were only two mainstream sets during the first 20 years of the league's operations (excluding the NBL and 1948 Bowman). Those regional-local-team issues range from scarce to rare, so no saturation there.

[Arazi4442]

To get back to the OPs original question, I think it’s very possible that the vintage market is saturated. Seems to me like a lot of vintage basketball, especially ultra high end, is getting auctioned over and over in the last 18 months or so. If the prime driver of these price surges is flippers vs. collectors, I could see prices taking a decent dip pretty soon.

Feels like supply is significantly increasing and most of the demand is manufactured quick $ flippers. Someone has to hang onto these purchases at some point.

[Johnny630]

Much of this high end stuff is playing musical chairs from auction house to auction house push pump redo. All a game.

[LincolnVT]

Same argument could be made for vintage baseball. Same blue chip cards selling in the same auctions over and over again.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

Same argument could be made for vintage baseball. Same blue chip cards selling in the same auctions over and over again.

True Statement……

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Much of this high end stuff is playing musical chairs from auction house to auction house push pump redo. All a game.

I agree with this assessment.



Regarding the question posed by the OP:

If you're referring to "saturated" in terms of current supply vs. current demand, the mass exodus of recent hobby newcomers is likely exerting a short-term negative influence on the market. I don't believe this will last long, though. The amount of vintage basketball available isn't really that much.

In terms of actual quantity, vintage basketball cards are in significantly lower supply than baseball cards from the same era. They're in somewhat lower supply than football cards, too. At least, that's the conclusion I drew from an admittedly quick glance at PSA Pop Reports.

While that might be mildly interesting, try comparing vintage basketball pop counts to those of modern cards. It puts things into perspective very quickly. Here's a benumbing statistic:

There are roughly the same number of PSA 10 Zion Prizm Base Rookies as every single 1957 Topps basketball card they've ever graded. Let that sink in. One version, of one card, from one set, in one grade.

So, relatively speaking, vintage basketball is a tiny drop in the overall hobby bucket.

[Snapolit1]

Anyone who paid massive dollars for a Zion card ought to be a little concerned. Just sayin.