Are vintage basketball cards market saturated?

[Johnny630]

Much of this high end stuff is playing musical chairs from auction house to auction house push pump redo. All a game.

[LincolnVT]

Same argument could be made for vintage baseball. Same blue chip cards selling in the same auctions over and over again.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

Same argument could be made for vintage baseball. Same blue chip cards selling in the same auctions over and over again.

True Statement……

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Much of this high end stuff is playing musical chairs from auction house to auction house push pump redo. All a game.

I agree with this assessment.



Regarding the question posed by the OP:

If you're referring to "saturated" in terms of current supply vs. current demand, the mass exodus of recent hobby newcomers is likely exerting a short-term negative influence on the market. I don't believe this will last long, though. The amount of vintage basketball available isn't really that much.

In terms of actual quantity, vintage basketball cards are in significantly lower supply than baseball cards from the same era. They're in somewhat lower supply than football cards, too. At least, that's the conclusion I drew from an admittedly quick glance at PSA Pop Reports.

While that might be mildly interesting, try comparing vintage basketball pop counts to those of modern cards. It puts things into perspective very quickly. Here's a benumbing statistic:

There are roughly the same number of PSA 10 Zion Prizm Base Rookies as every single 1957 Topps basketball card they've ever graded. Let that sink in. One version, of one card, from one set, in one grade.

So, relatively speaking, vintage basketball is a tiny drop in the overall hobby bucket.

[Snapolit1]

Anyone who paid massive dollars for a Zion card ought to be a little concerned. Just sayin.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Anyone who paid massive dollars for a Zion card ought to be a little concerned. Just sayin.

Or 800k for a Jordan.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

No doubt, MODERN basketball is saturated. Still hard to find much of the vintage stuff, i.e. pre-1975

[aconte]

The prices can't keep going straight up forever.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by aconte

The prices can't keep going straight up forever.

Definitely right. Seen a lot of speculators grab up 86 Fleer in hopes of striking gold. Unfortunately, those prices have fallen like a rock. Too much supply and now little demand.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

No doubt, MODERN basketball is saturated. Still hard to find much of the vintage stuff, i.e. pre-1975

This here.

The vintage is limited and I agree that this playing the game by auction house musical chairs. I think a market correction in all sports will take place in the next couple years as collectables are going to get hit hard as a tax shelter with the 600 dollar reporting. Modern will get designated as 90s junk wax values for 2015+ and vintage will go back to the prices of 5 years ago. Personal opinion.

[rjackson44]

Ive been buying vintage hockey i love it . Not easy

[BobC]

Originally Posted by JustinD

This here.

The vintage is limited and I agree that this playing the game by auction house musical chairs. I think a market correction in all sports will take place in the next couple years as collectables are going to get hit hard as a tax shelter with the 600 dollar reporting. Modern will get designated as 90s junk wax values for 2015+ and vintage will go back to the prices of 5 years ago. Personal opinion.

Makes a lot of sense, but not so sure about the vintage dropping back so much, depending on what your definition of vintage is now. Can see the modern stuff cooling off a bit, like back in the '90s. But thinking that maybe out of a lot of the new collectors and money that have been coming into the hobby on the modern side, if that modern side does start to falter and collapse a bit, we'll find that not all the new blood was strictly investors and not collectors. I would expect that some portion of these new collectors, albeit maybe just a small portion, will truly get bit by the collecting bug, and as a result, gravitate over to vintage. Just like a lot of us here on this forum started out.

Can see the high-end vintage coming down a bit, like a lot of it has already started to in some cases this past year. But that would likely be due to changes in the thinking of the high-end investors. Don't feel the lower grade vintage will take a similar hit. Can see some fallback, but not nearly as much as the high-end stuff may see. I feel the true collectors, plus whatever new ones get added to the ranks from the recent surge in collecting popularity, will keep the vintage market a lot less volatile.

And because a lot of this increased modern card popularity is in football and basketball, can see vintage for both of those sports getting a nice boost as well, as some of the modern collectors start looking back.