![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#2
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
Quote:
|
#3
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
I am not following this thread, but thought I would chime in...I am tired of seeing the misspelling on the title thread "Best lefty OFF all time".
The thing is I can't shame the OP to change it because he is banned...maybe a moderator or Leon can make my life a little more 'of' and little less 'off'. Brian (best Lefty is Lefty Grove, because he was obviously better than Lefty Gomez). |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
So in Spahn's BEST season, he was 88% better than the average 1953 MLB pitcher AFTER benefitting from a significant amount of good luck. In Ryu's best full season, he was 79% better than the average 2019 MLB pitcher WITHOUT benefitting from good luck. Once you adjust for luck and for how much better the average 2019 pitcher was than the average 1953 pitcher, then it's really not even close at all if you're asking who had the better peak or who had the best "stuff". Obviously, I fully realize that Ryu's overall career is hardly a shred of Spahn's overall career, and that there is tremendous value in being an above average pitcher for a very long time. But if you could teleport Ryu back to the 1940s and 50s, he's would absolutely terrorize the league. We'd probably all be talking about him being the GOAT right now. The same is true of any other top 10 pitcher in the league today. They would just absolutely rape hitters from the 40s and 50s. As far as your claim about me being "inconsistent", again, that's nonsense. You're the one who keeps claiming I only discount Grove's era and Spahn's era but not Koufax's. That's nonsense. You made that assumption and keep perpetuating it. I said no such thing. Koufax's numbers would absolutely suffer from any statistical model I would build. He pitched in a pitcher's park (so did Spahn), he pitched from a high mound, he pitched from an expanded strike zone in his best 4 years, he also had a lucky BABIP (though the entire league had a low BABIP at that time). His numbers would absolutely suffer from controlling for these variables. The reason I haven't focused on that fact is because it simply doesn't matter. I don't need to discount Spahn's era in order for Koufax to have a better peak 4, 5, or 6 years. Koufax's numbers themselves are simply miles better than Spahn's, WIHTOUT demoting Spahn for having pitched in a weaker era. But even if I did make the necessary adjustment to be able to compare apples to apples, Koufax's numbers would go down, Spahn's numbers would go down even more, and Grove's numbers would go down even more than Spahn's. The talent pool of the league gets worse the further back in time you go, not better. Here's a glimpse of a few stats from Spahn's best 5 year peak and Koufax's best 5 year peak that are actually predictive, unlike Wins and ERA. Spahn - 136 ERA+ average Koufax - 168 ERA+ average Spahn - 3.21 FIP average Koufax - 2.02 FIP average Spahn - 1.18 WHIP Koufax - 0.94 WHIP Spahn - 2.8 BB/9 Koufax - 2.1 BB/9 Spahn - 5.2 K/9 Koufax - 9.5 K/9 Spahn - 1.9 K/BB Koufax - 4.6 K/BB These differences are remarkable. There is no amount of adjusting (sizes of strike zone, talent level of their contemporaries, mound heights, ballparks, BABIP, etc) that you could possibly implement that would put these 5-year numbers on an even remotely similar playing field. Perhaps you should read those deltas again if you're not getting this. The differences between 5-year-peak Koufax and 5-year-peak Spahn are difficult to exaggerate. I could probably find 100 pitchers between them value-wise. That's how far apart these guys were. The only possible argument anyone could ever make for Spahn is by looking at cumulative career value. He was an above-average pitcher for a very long time. Value adds up, and WAR gives him extra credit because his peers sucked. But he was never even the best pitcher in a single season. Not even when he won the CYA, and not even in his best two seasons. Last edited by Snowman; 11-18-2021 at 02:07 AM. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[QUOTE=Snowman;2165342] Yes, that's right, the year Warren Spahn won the CYA his ERA+ was 130. That's a staggering statistic. 130 is NOT great. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that no other pitcher since has won the CYA with a lower ERA+ than that.
Um, not even close: Pete Vuckovich 1982 (the worst Cy Young winner ever) 114 Steve Stone 1980 - 123 Bob Welch 1990 - 125 Mike McCormick 1967 - 118 Early Wynn 1959 - 120 and I'm going to stop because there's too many to list them all. 130 is actually lower tier of the middle of the pack. "Record" appears to be Jim Lonborg 1967 at 112
__________________
Check out https://www.thecollectorconnection.com Always looking for consignments 717.327.8915 We sell your less expensive pre-war cards individually instead of in bulk lots to make YOU the most money possible! and Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thecollectorconnectionauctions Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 11-18-2021 at 04:52 AM. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[QUOTE=Aquarian Sports Cards;2165354]
Quote:
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
Palmer and Sutcliffe had the best seasons in the AL that year, but at 15-5 and 14-8, it was heresy to give them the Cy Young. Vuckovich 18-6 with that low ERA+ and a WHIP of 1.502. Now that is something that's probably a record for the worst WHIP of any CYA winner. And it wasn't even close. 14 first place votes for Vuck. No one else had more than five. But as far as politics (or would it be better described as simply popularity and reputation)....look at Steve Carlton winning the NL CYA over Steve Rogers that year ('82). Though that also included the obsession with wins. Because even though Rogers went 19-8 and had vastly superior numbers, a 23 win Steve Carlton season was all that mattered. Oh and 20 out of 24 first place votes for that one Last edited by cardsagain74; 11-18-2021 at 05:39 AM. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[QUOTE=Snowman;2165360]
Quote:
Nolan Ryan should've won in 1987 leading the league in ERA, ERA+, FIP, K/9, H/9 and K/BB but there was no way in hell an 8 - 16 pitcher was going to win an award back then. It's amazing that he finished 5th actually.
__________________
Check out https://www.thecollectorconnection.com Always looking for consignments 717.327.8915 We sell your less expensive pre-war cards individually instead of in bulk lots to make YOU the most money possible! and Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thecollectorconnectionauctions |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[QUOTE=Aquarian Sports Cards;2165354]
Quote:
|
#11
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
In short, players today are of COURSE superior, but they aren't genetically any different than their forerunners, so the best way to compare across eras is to compare a player to his peers and then compare the comparisons. Where THAT falls short is, as everyone has access to today's advances it flattens the curve of greatness and reduces outliers like Ruth or possibly Grove, because today's "lesser players" have made themselves greater through modern methods, whereas the players with greater natural advantages can only improve so much.
__________________
Check out https://www.thecollectorconnection.com Always looking for consignments 717.327.8915 We sell your less expensive pre-war cards individually instead of in bulk lots to make YOU the most money possible! and Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thecollectorconnectionauctions Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 11-18-2021 at 04:40 AM. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
Last edited by BobC; 11-18-2021 at 08:13 AM. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#14
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
It's funny, if you were to have a discussion of (for example) who was the best midfielder ever in soccer, statistics probably wouldn't enter into the discussion at all. Baseball is unbelievably rich in statistics and even more so with all the advanced metrics, but they don't seem to settle anything.
__________________
Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-18-2021 at 10:15 AM. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#16
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
Your soccer midfielder is a great example of a player's value being non-statistical. The best way to help your team win might have nothing to do with stats. When I was in grade school, we played a game called Battle Ball. It was like Dodge Ball except you could catch the ball. If you dropped it, or if the opposition caught your throw on the fly, you were out and had to go to the sidelines where you could still throw at the other team whenever you got the ball. We played it during gym class, at recess, and after school. Not to mention weekends. We had about 100 kids in each grade, divided into 4 classrooms. So the first day of each school year, we'd eagerly look at all the class lists to see what room/teacher we had, and also to see what room would have the best Battle Ball team. Well, in 6th grade, I was in room 303 and we had an all star team. The first time we played another class during our 30 minute gym time, we won 4 games - wiping out their class, starting a new game, doing it again, and again, and again. So, one of our best and smartest players, Richard Lord, started getting out on purpose at the beginning of each game, so he could move to the out sideline and set up a crossfire attack. If we'd kept stats, Lord would look like the worst player in the whole grade, getting out in the first 10 seconds of every game. But with our team loaded, there was no chance we would lose - so eliminating the opponent as quickly as possible was the goal and he figured that out and played his role superbly. |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#18
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
If you go back and read an earlier post in this thread it was stated that sabermetrics and statistical analysis was basically developed for gambling purposes. Well that is only for predicting games between two teams today. And over time, statisticians could tweak and refine those as they'd actually get to see how well it predicted the winner of a game. But there is no outcome or winner when you try to use statistics to decide the best lefty of all time. The formulas being used don't predict anything, and there is no winner decided that allows you to prove your formula was right, or to tweak your statistical formula if it was proven wrong. Statisticians just use the numbers they pull directly from baseball, ignoring outside and human influences, and interpret those stats in how they feel they would. The stats and formulas are nothing but talking points, as they can't prove or disprove anything regarding who really was the best. You can interpret the numbers how you want. And they are certainly not infallible for gambling purposes either, as they don't always pick the winner. Last edited by BobC; 11-18-2021 at 01:26 PM. |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#20
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Let y = 2x + 3
If x = 5, then y = 13 BobC - "Well that's just like, your opinion, man." |
#21
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#22
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
When you consider that during the pre war era that the rest of the world population wasn't even used like it is in modern times(and none of the minority american population was used either), that pool of available athletes gets even more smaller. If you take a look at the average height of a MLB pitcher from now and compare it generation by generation you will see it increasing. That isn't evolution, yet the players are indeed taller. Weight and strength have increased too and that has some aspects of nutrition and training, but height is not really something that is easily changed from what you are already programmed to be(unless maybe extreme malnourishment impedes it). On top of the population there are many people who choose mating partners for the express purpose of producing a larger and more athletic off spring so the off spring has a better shot at scholarships and the big money contracts. Size does matter indeed. The median height of a pitcher in 1920 was 6 feet and 178 pounds. The median height of a pitcher in 1960 was 6 feet 1 and 191 pounds. The median height of a pitcher in 2000 was 6 feet 2 and 197 pounds. The median height of a pitcher in 2019 was 6 feeet 3 and and 215 pounds. MPH data has not always been recorded, but the the average fastball has been steadily increasing. In 2002 the avg fastball was 88.6 MPH In 2006 the avg fastball was 88.9 MPH In 2008 the avg fastball was 90.1 MPH In 2016 the avg fastball was 92.3 MPH In 2019 the avg fastball was 93.1 MPH In 2021 the avg fastball was 93.5 MPH Looking at those two concrete examples of the height/weight changes, and the MPH changes, in addition to the population disparity, there is not a smidge of logic that would point to the average player in 1930 throwing anywhere near as hard as the average player in 2020, and evolution has nothing to do with it. The size and strength of the hitters have also seen the same increase. Every hitter in the lineup can hit a home run off of a mistake. There are no weak spots where a pitcher can 'ease up'. Baseball science plays some part in those increases in MPH, but only a part. The majority of it comes from population, more world wide players being available, and selective breeding....And no discrimination like Pre-War years. So comparing players, when one has a weaker set of peers to be compared to, is NOT a valid comparison. How valid can it be when Ryu has to somehow be better than everyone in the league when the AVERAGE pitcher is the same size as him and throws just as hard, and a guy from another era had to only compete against pitchers three inches smaller, 37 pounds lighter, and throwing anywhere from five to ten MPH slower on average? Have you ever seen that photo of Nolan Ryan standing next to Randy Johnson?? He makes Ryan look like a midget. That photo alone explains everything I'm saying without the use of a single word. This is no disrespect to the early players, because they paved the way. Ruth out homered every team in the league, not because he is that much better of a hitter than Vlad Guerroro JR, but because his environment allowed that to happen. Ruth simply could not do that today because he would have to hit 300 home runs in a season, and off of BETTER pitchers. Different environment. People marvel at Nolan Ryan. Longevity aside, Vlad Jr. sees Nolan Ryan type stuff 'almost' every game, and most with much better command. Ryan was a freak even as late as the 1970's. Today, he is just another pitcher(again, longevity aside)...and he would be just an averaged sized pitcher too. It isn't a dig at old time players as the respect will always be there for them. It is however a nod to players like Vlad Jr. and company who get disrespected by fans because they strike out too much, or for whatever other reason. When players in the 1970's faced stuff like the pitchers throw today, they struck out a lot too....when facing Nolan Ryan ![]()
__________________
http://originaloldnewspapers.com |
![]() |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Lefty Grove = Lefty Groves... And Lefty's 1921 Tip Top Bread Card | leftygrove10 | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 12 | 10-15-2019 12:55 AM |
62 koufax ,59 mays,72 mays vg ends monday 8 est time sold ended | rjackson44 | Live Auctions - Only 2-3 open, per member, at once. | 3 | 05-22-2017 05:00 PM |
Final Poll!! Vote of the all time worst Topps produced set | almostdone | Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980) | 22 | 07-28-2015 07:55 PM |
Long Time Lurker. First time poster. Crazy to gamble on this Gehrig? | wheels56 | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 17 | 05-17-2015 04:25 AM |
It's the most wonderful time of the year. Cobb/Edwards auction time! | iggyman | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 68 | 09-17-2013 12:42 AM |