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  #1  
Old 11-18-2021, 10:15 AM
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It's funny, if you were to have a discussion of (for example) who was the best midfielder ever in soccer, statistics probably wouldn't enter into the discussion at all. Baseball is unbelievably rich in statistics and even more so with all the advanced metrics, but they don't seem to settle anything.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-18-2021 at 10:15 AM.
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  #2  
Old 11-18-2021, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
It's funny, if you were to have a discussion of (for example) who was the best midfielder ever in soccer, statistics probably wouldn't enter into the discussion at all. Baseball is unbelievably rich in statistics and even more so with all the advanced metrics, but they don't seem to settle anything.
You're right, there are too many variables in play, especially when comparing people or games from different times/eras. And you can't prove who really is right or wrong. It is really no more than an educated guess.
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Old 11-18-2021, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
It's funny, if you were to have a discussion of (for example) who was the best midfielder ever in soccer, statistics probably wouldn't enter into the discussion at all. Baseball is unbelievably rich in statistics and even more so with all the advanced metrics, but they don't seem to settle anything.
Players in various sports serve their team best by finding the role that is most helpful for his/her team. If a guy like Grove has a 6-0 lead after 4 innings, he serves his team best by not trying for perfection, but by laying the ball over the plate and making the opposition hit it. If they get a couple base runners, then he has to bear down to prevent too much damage, but otherwise, for expediency, he'd rather throw 90 pitches and win 6-3 than throw 120 pitches, striking out 10, and winning 6-0. In the age of the 4 man rotation and no relief specialists, complete games helped the rest of the staff get through the long season, especially when rain-outs made double-headers pile up towards the end. And if a pitcher can save a little wear on his arm, that's common sense. I don't remember who it was, but some pitcher said he very rarely threw over to first to hold a runner on, because he figured he only had so many throws in his arm.

Your soccer midfielder is a great example of a player's value being non-statistical. The best way to help your team win might have nothing to do with stats.

When I was in grade school, we played a game called Battle Ball. It was like Dodge Ball except you could catch the ball. If you dropped it, or if the opposition caught your throw on the fly, you were out and had to go to the sidelines where you could still throw at the other team whenever you got the ball.

We played it during gym class, at recess, and after school. Not to mention weekends. We had about 100 kids in each grade, divided into 4 classrooms. So the first day of each school year, we'd eagerly look at all the class lists to see what room/teacher we had, and also to see what room would have the best Battle Ball team. Well, in 6th grade, I was in room 303 and we had an all star team. The first time we played another class during our 30 minute gym time, we won 4 games - wiping out their class, starting a new game, doing it again, and again, and again.

So, one of our best and smartest players, Richard Lord, started getting out on purpose at the beginning of each game, so he could move to the out sideline and set up a crossfire attack. If we'd kept stats, Lord would look like the worst player in the whole grade, getting out in the first 10 seconds of every game. But with our team loaded, there was no chance we would lose - so eliminating the opponent as quickly as possible was the goal and he figured that out and played his role superbly.
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Old 11-18-2021, 11:58 AM
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On the soccer question, if you had the discussion among the world's most knowledgeable fans, players, coaches, writers, etc., you might not get to a complete consensus, but the same few names would be in the discussion -- all without the benefit of statistics. The "witness of the eyes" as I think John Updike called it.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-18-2021 at 11:59 AM.
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  #5  
Old 11-18-2021, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
On the soccer question, if you had the discussion among the world's most knowledgeable fans, players, coaches, writers, etc., you might not get to a complete consensus, but the same few names would be in the discussion -- all without the benefit of statistics. The "witness of the eyes" as I think John Updike called it.
+1
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Old 11-18-2021, 02:10 PM
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I’d like to interrupt our regularly scheduled lefty debate by saying this thread has just become only the 7th in the main forum’s history to reach 1,000 replies. That’s no easy feat, but even more remarkably, it only took 52,000 views (and change) to achieve it. A stunning lurking/chiming ratio!

As you were…

https://ibb.co/C8MDVmt

Last edited by cjedmonton; 11-18-2021 at 02:18 PM.
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  #7  
Old 11-18-2021, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by cjedmonton View Post
I’d like to interrupt our regularly scheduled lefty debate by saying this thread has just become only the 7th in the main forum’s history to reach 1,000 replies. That’s no easy feat, but even more remarkably, it only took 52,000 views (and change) to achieve it. A stunning lurking/chiming ratio!

As you were…

https://ibb.co/C8MDVmt
Which is surprising, considering the misspelling of 'of' in the title! You would think that annoyance would keep people from posting on the thread.

Brian...I have now posted twice on the thread, both times in regard to what should have been 'of' in the title. I predict my persistence will eventually pay of (misspelled on purpose to drive home my point).
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  #8  
Old 11-19-2021, 04:26 PM
BobC BobC is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cjedmonton View Post
I’d like to interrupt our regularly scheduled lefty debate by saying this thread has just become only the 7th in the main forum’s history to reach 1,000 replies. That’s no easy feat, but even more remarkably, it only took 52,000 views (and change) to achieve it. A stunning lurking/chiming ratio!

As you were…

https://ibb.co/C8MDVmt
OMG!

CJ,

Please don't start posting all kinds of numbers and other numerical data like that. Next thing you know, some statisticians will come on here and see it, and use it to claim they have created a statistical formula or equation that will allow them to accurately predict and name the winner of every debate thread here on Net54.

And I wouldn't be surprised if they had their formulas somehow always pointed right back to them being the projected debate winners.

Last edited by BobC; 11-19-2021 at 05:42 PM.
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  #9  
Old 11-19-2021, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by BobC View Post
OMG!

CJ,

Please don't start posting all kinds of numbers and other numerical data like that. Next thing you know, some statisticians will come on here and see it, and use it to claim they have created a statistical formula or equation that will allow them to accurately predict and name the winner of every debate thread here on Ner54.

And I wouldn't be surprised if they had their formulas somehow always pointed right back to them being the projected debate winners.
The extent to which you guys are infatuated with my posts/opinions is rather embarrassing.
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  #10  
Old 11-18-2021, 03:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
On the soccer question, if you had the discussion among the world's most knowledgeable fans, players, coaches, writers, etc., you might not get to a complete consensus, but the same few names would be in the discussion -- all without the benefit of statistics. The "witness of the eyes" as I think John Updike called it.
The same could be said of any sport though. Just because a player's contributions aren't currently being tracked or valued by the mainstream doesn't mean that those contributions can't be measured. The fact of the matter is that when teams look to gain an advantage over their competition, in any sport, they turn to statisticians/data scientists to tell them how they can improve. Everyone knows the Moneyball story. This is precisely how baseball changed. Some don't like the changes for various reasons, but each change that has happened was the result of someone figuring out a way to gain an edge, however small or might be, over their competition through statistical analysis. Same thing with football and when to go for it on 4th down or when to kick a field goal. And basketball as well. Watching an NBA game today is almost like watching an entirely different game than even just 20 years ago. People who don't know any better often say that "Steph Curry changed the way the game is played", but of course that's not true. It was statistical analysis that changed the way the game is played. The MIT Sloan Sports Conference, which is where most of this transformative work comes from and gets presented prior to the changes being implemented by owners, coaches, and GMs, had several talks about how the three point shot was severely under utilized in the NBA and how any team could gain a significant advantage by stocking up on 3 point shooters. It is no accident that the first team to buy into the analytics was the team from Silicon Valley, whose ownership believes in science. It's no accident that they assembled a team of multiple strong 3 point shooters and hired Steve Kerr to coach it. Steph Curry didn't change the way the game was played, data scientists did. Curry was the beneficiary. Most people think Curry is the best shooter of all time, but they aren't even aware that Steve Kerr actually had a better 3 point shooting percentage than Curry did during his playing years.

Soccer is no exception. Just because you can identify talent without statistics doesn't mean that you can't better identify talent WITH statistics. Many of the things a midfielder does to help his team win doesn't get tracked, or at least hasn't been historically. But that's changing and will continue to change in the future as more and more data savvy owners recognize the value that statistical analysis adds to their organization.

Last edited by Snowman; 11-18-2021 at 03:06 PM.
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  #11  
Old 11-18-2021, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
It's funny, if you were to have a discussion of (for example) who was the best midfielder ever in soccer, statistics probably wouldn't enter into the discussion at all. Baseball is unbelievably rich in statistics and even more so with all the advanced metrics, but they don't seem to settle anything.
Statistics may not enter the discussion, but it probably should. Interestingly, I also build predictive models for soccer that estimate the value of every midfielder, both offensively and defensively. I've used it to bet on each of the past 3 world cups, and it's been by far my best ROI of all the sports I bet on.
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