First Vintage Set - Graded vs. Raw?

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

I store my graded cards in two-row "shoeboxes"...a lot of them.



In regards to the cost for collectors (value to current owners) of PSA graded commons going up, yes, I do expect the PSA graded cards currently selling in the $10-50 range will increase in cost/value. Your question has been on my mind a lot the past 6 months, especially since many of the PSA cards in my collection are in the $10-50 range in current market value.



My thought process is IF, the $20 "value" grading option PSA offers returns at $20 (and not more), I feel many of the PSA graded commons from the 50s through the 70s will indeed increase in value.



With the increase in grading costs, for now at least, less submissions will occur at the $20 price point per card than what occurred at the $6-8 price point as current values would not nearly cover the grading cost. Eventually the supply of commons originally graded at a $6-8 price point will dry up causing the power of supply and demand to take over. This lack of supply, due to far fewer new to market slabs, will cause what is now a $10 market value PSA common to ultimately become a $20-25 common. Once the value increases due to low supply, there will be less reluctance to grade a common at the $20 price point which will cause a supply increase thus causing cost/value to stabilize. It would be tough to believe that PSA set builders on the registry would just give up on their quests to build sets and/or leave sets unfinished.



Is it possible many non-excessively populated PSA commons with current values of $50 or less will increase in value by $10-15 each over the next few years due to PSA raising their rates? My guess is yes, highly likely.



Will this happen immediately? IMO, no, not across the board. Not until the supply diminishes. However, in some cases, I have seen spikes on a few cards I am seeking for my sets.



Will this effect higher value cards as much as commons? IMO, no...the increases in grading costs will just be absorbed into the cost of the higher valued cards.



How long will this process take for commons to increase in value? This is the big question....depends on how quick the market adjusts to the diminishing supply. My guess is year(s) versus months

Enjoyed reading this. Thanks

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[hcv123]

Specific to the 56 set - I would get Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Banks, Kaline, Killebrew, Aaron, Aparicio and Mays graded - be picky - in the grade range you are looking at there are huge differences in eye appeal - be willing to spend more for nicer looking cards. The balance of the set I would do raw.

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Specific to the 56 set - I would get Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Banks, Kaline, Killebrew, Aaron, Aparicio and Mays graded - be picky - in the grade range you are looking at there are huge differences in eye appeal - be willing to spend more for nicer looking cards. The balance of the set I would do raw.

Thanks for listing the players. I am leaning towards this strategy.

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[jgannon]

I would say just go raw. Just find some dealers you can trust.

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by jgannon

I would say just go raw. Just find some dealers you can trust.

Thank you. Mind directing me to some of the trusted dealers?

[jgannon]

Originally Posted by Mbjerry

Thank you. Mind directing me to some of the trusted dealers?

Battersbox, siriussportsauctions, and starxcards are nice...

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Not much new for me to add to the conversation, but just wanted to chime in that my vote is collect your set in mostly raw condition. You will get more for your money, and I think it's more satisfying to handle and sort raw cards, they look great in a binder, and take up less space.

But if you are concerned about authenticity and future value and accurate condition, then purchase the high dollar cards graded.

This is the approach I took with my 1952 Bowman set in EX condition. I only have four more cards to go (I have all the BIG ones), and basically any card worth around $100 or more I purchased graded (about six cards), and everything else is raw.

I have the graded cards in back of my binder in four pocket pages and everything else raw in nine pocket pages. Looks pretty good.

I will say, however, the biggest downside with buying raw online is not being able to tell the true condition of the card until you get it "in hand". My goal is to have a completely EX condition or higher set, which means no creases or wrinkles. However it's fairly common for a card to look EX or NM in scans, only to find they have light surface wrinkles. So it's best to buy graded on the high dollar cards if you have a specific condition in mind.

Also, I think you can add Greg Morris Cards to your list of trusted dealers. His auctions seem to end a little higher than most, but his condition estimates on raw cards are accurate. I've not had any unexpected wrinkles, etc. from anything I've bought from him.