First Vintage Set - Graded vs. Raw?

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by Mbjerry

Thanks for the recommendation. Two follow up questions... One, how do you store your graded sets? Two, do you foresee the cost for graded commons going up with the recent grading cost increases?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

I store my graded cards in two-row "shoeboxes"...a lot of them.

In regards to the cost for collectors (value to current owners) of PSA graded commons going up, yes, I do expect the PSA graded cards currently selling in the $10-50 range will increase in cost/value. Your question has been on my mind a lot the past 6 months, especially since many of the PSA cards in my collection are in the $10-50 range in current market value.

My thought process is IF, the $20 "value" grading option PSA offers returns at $20 (and not more), I feel many of the PSA graded commons from the 50s through the 70s will indeed increase in value.

With the increase in grading costs, for now at least, less submissions will occur at the $20 price point per card than what occurred at the $6-8 price point as current values would not nearly cover the grading cost. Eventually the supply of commons originally graded at a $6-8 price point will dry up causing the power of supply and demand to take over. This lack of supply, due to far fewer new to market slabs, will cause what is now a $10 market value PSA common to ultimately become a $20-25 common. Once the value increases due to low supply, there will be less reluctance to grade a common at the $20 price point which will cause a supply increase thus causing cost/value to stabilize. It would be tough to believe that PSA set builders on the registry would just give up on their quests to build sets and/or leave sets unfinished.

Is it possible many non-excessively populated PSA commons with current values of $50 or less will increase in value by $10-15 each over the next few years due to PSA raising their rates? My guess is yes, highly likely.

Will this happen immediately? IMO, no, not across the board. Not until the supply diminishes. However, in some cases, I have seen spikes on a few cards I am seeking for my sets.

Will this effect higher value cards as much as commons? IMO, no...the increases in grading costs will just be absorbed into the cost of the higher valued cards.

How long will this process take for commons to increase in value? This is the big question....depends on how quick the market adjusts to the diminishing supply. My guess is year(s) versus months