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First Vintage Set - Graded vs. Raw?
Hello,
Some of you may have seen my new member intro post. I am new into vintage and really wanted to build a set. With the help of Gustomania I selected 1956 topps and decided to start with graded to get my feet wet. I planned to do the entire set graded over multiple years. However, now that I have good examples of grades four through six (about 30 cards) and have looked the cards over closely, I am considering moving to raw for a few reasons. Mainly, being able to flip through my cards in binder and enjoy them more often rather than storing a few heavy boxes and having to flip through slabs. Looking to hear pros and cons of graded vs. raw sets. Would love to hear why you chose to do your sets graded or raw. If you do raw, do you do your bigger cards graded? My bigger cards will likely be 2s to 3s so I am considering buying those graded and cracking out to add to binder. Thanks for helping me work through this decision. |
I used to be a graded only collector, but have recently moved to raw for a number of reasons. The biggest factor is price; you can get really nice raw cards for a small fraction of their graded price. It's more efficient financially, and your money goes a lot further.
The other factor, that should probably be your primary consideration, was my ability to evaluate cards independently. I feel comfortable in my chosen sets that I can identify fake and altered cards, and that I have a good eye for condition. I will still buy the top tier cards graded when I can't inspect them in-hand first, but I usually crack them out when they arrive. If I ever want to sell my raw cards, I can submit them for grading with reasonable confidence I know the number on the slab that will be returned to me. If you're confident you can avoid fakes and altered cards, this is probably the way to go IMO. |
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I usually default to eBay, but there are a number of great sellers out there depending on the cards. I've used the-battersbox.com and tonyetrade.com and found both easy to deal with. Of course, there are plenty of impressive cards available on these forums as well if you watch the BST postings.
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With the exception of the 1952 Topps set, I have built all of my sets from the 1950 Bowman set through the late 70s Topps sets (minus 3 cards each in 51, 53, 54 Bowman sets) mainly raw first. All of my 1952 Topps were collected in the graded form. With my other mostly raw sets, an occasional key graded card that I had from before starting the set would become part of my mostly raw set. Some sets I have built (61-63 Post cereal, 70s Hostess, 65-80 OPC) will remain mostly all raw (primarily due to cost), as I enjoy the binder experience too.
Over the past 15+ years, I have taken multiple sets from mostly raw to the mostly graded/completely graded state. I took this route because I had many of the key cards already graded. My 52, 62, 72, and 75 sets are completely graded, my 57s and 71s are 93% and 98% of the way graded, while several others are 60%+ graded (61, 65, 68, 74). As most of cards needed to finish these sets graded are commons, if the price of graded commons stays down, my goal is to finish these sets fully graded. My recommendation is to build the sets mostly raw first with only key cards graded , then slowly work the set from raw to graded if funding/desire permits. |
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I would advocate for graded if you see yourself selling this at some point in the near or distant future.
Graded has more drawbacks now, however, than even a year ago. If you are going the PSA route you are currently unable to submit your own raw cards and if and when it finally opens back up it might be prohibitively expensive to do so. The 56T set looks great in 8 pocket sleeves. I always felt it was cool to look at the set and flip the binder pages from top to bottom vs the typical book page by page. Good luck either way with this. It's a great set. RayB |
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The plastic cases housing graded cards might as well be made of gold, because there is such a huge discrepancy in price between the 'same' graded and non-graded cards. You can get a helluva lot more for your money buying ungraded. Many people prefer having slabs to ensure the cards are authentic, but with all the crap coming down the river from PSA, even that is very questionable at times.
I guess what I'm trying to say is, you'll probably have to find a balance that works for you. If you're attending a card show and can really examine the cards to make sure they are authentic, you can make some nice headway buying ungraded cards. On-line, it's a little bit of a tougher undertaking, but the good news is eBay is pretty good (maybe too good) with supporting buyers who feel they've gotten scammed, so there isn't too much real risk involved. Good luck!! |
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In regards to the cost for collectors (value to current owners) of PSA graded commons going up, yes, I do expect the PSA graded cards currently selling in the $10-50 range will increase in cost/value. Your question has been on my mind a lot the past 6 months, especially since many of the PSA cards in my collection are in the $10-50 range in current market value. My thought process is IF, the $20 "value" grading option PSA offers returns at $20 (and not more), I feel many of the PSA graded commons from the 50s through the 70s will indeed increase in value. With the increase in grading costs, for now at least, less submissions will occur at the $20 price point per card than what occurred at the $6-8 price point as current values would not nearly cover the grading cost. Eventually the supply of commons originally graded at a $6-8 price point will dry up causing the power of supply and demand to take over. This lack of supply, due to far fewer new to market slabs, will cause what is now a $10 market value PSA common to ultimately become a $20-25 common. Once the value increases due to low supply, there will be less reluctance to grade a common at the $20 price point which will cause a supply increase thus causing cost/value to stabilize. It would be tough to believe that PSA set builders on the registry would just give up on their quests to build sets and/or leave sets unfinished. Is it possible many non-excessively populated PSA commons with current values of $50 or less will increase in value by $10-15 each over the next few years due to PSA raising their rates? My guess is yes, highly likely. Will this happen immediately? IMO, no, not across the board. Not until the supply diminishes. However, in some cases, I have seen spikes on a few cards I am seeking for my sets. Will this effect higher value cards as much as commons? IMO, no...the increases in grading costs will just be absorbed into the cost of the higher valued cards. How long will this process take for commons to increase in value? This is the big question....depends on how quick the market adjusts to the diminishing supply. My guess is year(s) versus months |
The last thing I would do is buy graded big cards and then crack them out (especially since you said that the financial factor is a big consideration). If you prefer raw that much and want the conformity of everything in a binder, you're often better off paying up a little bit for raw from really established dealers (which is still naturally cheaper than slabs, especially PSA).
I've spent a lot of time here and there deciding how to best land the kind of '50s key cards that you need for a '56, and I've often ended up with graded for something around a 4 or 5, and raw for anything low grade. You're right in the middle of that range for your main '56 cards. If I were in your spot, I'd lean toward graded. It's not that cumbersome to get out half a dozen top slabs to look at. It's how my sets have often unfolded |
I also collect 56T and what I did was buy the biggies graded (Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Robinson, Clemente etc) and the commons raw. That way Im more confident that they aren't counterfeits and if I need to sell quickly I can.
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I would agree with the mixed approach
Specific to the 56 set - I would get Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Banks, Kaline, Killebrew, Aaron, Aparicio and Mays graded - be picky - in the grade range you are looking at there are huge differences in eye appeal - be willing to spend more for nicer looking cards. The balance of the set I would do raw.
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I would say just go raw. Just find some dealers you can trust.
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Not much new for me to add to the conversation, but just wanted to chime in that my vote is collect your set in mostly raw condition. You will get more for your money, and I think it's more satisfying to handle and sort raw cards, they look great in a binder, and take up less space.
But if you are concerned about authenticity and future value and accurate condition, then purchase the high dollar cards graded. This is the approach I took with my 1952 Bowman set in EX condition. I only have four more cards to go (I have all the BIG ones), and basically any card worth around $100 or more I purchased graded (about six cards), and everything else is raw. I have the graded cards in back of my binder in four pocket pages and everything else raw in nine pocket pages. Looks pretty good. I will say, however, the biggest downside with buying raw online is not being able to tell the true condition of the card until you get it "in hand". My goal is to have a completely EX condition or higher set, which means no creases or wrinkles. However it's fairly common for a card to look EX or NM in scans, only to find they have light surface wrinkles. So it's best to buy graded on the high dollar cards if you have a specific condition in mind. Also, I think you can add Greg Morris Cards to your list of trusted dealers. His auctions seem to end a little higher than most, but his condition estimates on raw cards are accurate. I've not had any unexpected wrinkles, etc. from anything I've bought from him. |
+1 for Greg Morris
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Building a 1956 Topps set in grades 4-6 would be significantly cheaper raw then graded. IMO graded makes sense if you're building a set in NM 7 or higher since those cards are going to be fairly tough to come by raw.
Grades 4-6 are much easier to find at card shows, which I'd highly recommend. Find yourself a big local show and you'll find multiple dealers with inventory. You want to see examples in hand to determine if it meets your eye appeal criteria and if you're buying multiple cards at a time in cash from the same dealer, you're going to save more vs. buying off a dealer on ebay. It's a personal decision to build raw vs graded, I'd say EX 5 would be my threshold though to build a raw '56 set. If building an EX-MT 6 set I'd likely buy all the stars and minor stars graded and the commons raw. NM 7 and up I'd do 100% of the set graded. Either way enjoy the journey. Who cares how many years it takes to build it? Buy the best examples you can find and you'll truly appreciate every card in your set. |
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I spent about a year and a half putting together a fully graded near complete (only needed 10 or so cards) 1953 Topps set, everything graded between a 5 and 7. Here are my thoughts:
* If I had to do it again (and I am, actually), I would collect 99% of the set raw. You generally don't have to worry about someone creating a fake copy of Del Rice or Gus Niarhos. The reason I am choosing raw moving forward is that I want to collect so many different sets, especially pre-war tobacco stuff, that for me, it doesn't make financial sense to pay $25-30 for a graded common in a PSA 5, when I could buy 10+ raw cards for one of the sets I am working on for that same price. I will never have the top rated set on any PSA registry because I won't spend hundreds/thousands of dollars for PSA 9/10 copies of commons. So that isn't a game I am going to play anymore. I just really want to have as many completed vintage sets as possible. * Last summer, you could grade vintage commons with PSA for $7-8 per card, and it was a no brainer to do that when playing the PSA set registry game. Now, the calculus has certainly changed, and we have no idea what the bulk price will look like when it eventually opens back up. I suspect that when bulk/value re-opens, and the cost is $30+ per card, the price on existing PSA graded vintage commons will increase. At least it certainly should. * When it comes to the HoF, then my inclination will be to buy a graded copy. Obviously new raw collections are always coming to market, but for me its almost not worth the hassle of trying to buy an EX/EXMINT copy of a Mantle or Mays raw unless the price is a real bargain. May as well just pay the premium to get an already slabbed version. * I'm not a binders person because I don't trust myself to not mangle the cards when putting them in/taking them out of the pages. Cardsavers and big boxes for raw is fine for me. * Don't overpay for cards. I know that one is hard to really adhere to in the moment, when you see a card you've been looking for, but really unless you are dealing in really rare cards that almost never come to market, you will see another copy of it. I searched for a few months for a 1953 Topps Jackie Jensen in PSA 5 or higher with decent centering and couldn't find one. When one finally popped up, it was a lot more expensive than I wanted to pay, but I bought it anyway. Then, within 3-4 weeks, 2 more popped up on ebay, with the same general eye appeal, for 30% less than I paid. And I was sad. If you are going to go with raw, you should generally set an upper limit on commons and just refuse to pay more. Another copy will come along, and when you are tackling big sets of 400+ cards, there are always others to grab while waiting for the next one to come along. Good luck |
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I don't really have much new to add but will share my personal experiences in case any of it is of value.
When I started to build my 52 Topps set (minus Mantle) I knew I wanted to keep them in a binder for easy and pleasant viewing. I find that I never look at my slabbed cards but I look at and enjoy my binder sets all the time. Just the habits I have formed. You'll have to decide what is best for you. Anyway, my plan was to buy the vast majority of 52s raw and then the premium cards I would buy graded for a little extra peace of mind, and then break them out and add to my binder. Agree with others that there are several reputable dealers who you can feel confident in buying raw. (I mostly used battersbox, tonyetrade, and kit young. Also, several members on these boards). In theory, that plan seemed good - I hate missing cards in my binders - just an OCD thing of mine, and this was several years ago, so the cost of even the premium cards wasn't yet out of this world (PSA 1.5 Mays for $450; PSA 2 Jackie for $800 - remember those days?!). So I felt comfortable cracking them all. I bring this up just to caution you about cracking slabs. Fast forward to today and even though I love the 52 set in a binder, I am not comfortable keeping the Jackie and Willie in the pages, so I have pulled them out and keep them in recessed screwdowns. At some point I will resubmit to PSA. I regret cracking those two out. As time went on, and the value of certain graded cards increased, I found that I wasn't comfortable cracking more and more cards from the 52 set. I kept Campanella, Pee Wee Reese, Eddie Mathews, and a few other HOFers and high numbers in their slabs. What I am probably going to do is buy reprints of these cards to add to my binder so I don't have all those unsightly blank spaces. I guess where I am now, is that I have set an unofficial personal threshold for slabbed / raw that I follow as best as possible, knowing I have to be flexible when the opportunity for a good deal arises. For instance, my 52 Wilhelm was purchased raw and is in the binder, while my 52 Robin Roberts is graded, even though the Wilhelm is more valuable. At the end of the day I guess it depends on your collecting goals. I will be leaving my collection to my wife and/or kids and realize that it will most likely be much easier for my daughters to sell high value cards that are graded than if they were raw. I feel like I'm talking in circles now, but the essence of it all is to store and display in the way that will give you the most enjoyment, and help you meet your collecting goals. If you do go the binder route, I highly recommend the lighthouse binders with slipcases that are available on Amazon. They are more expensive, but very solid structure, and the slipcase not only keeps dust off, but allows you to store with the ring on top and pages dangling to guards against bending / folding. I've been very pleased. |
I don’t have a whole lot new to add, but my experience with building my 1953 Topps set has been I prefer them raw. It’s nice to be able to look at them one by one (most are in toploaders) and be able to handle them. If I were doing it over again, I would focus more on the stars first. I kept telling myself that I could get Mantle and Paige later, and now they’re at several multiples of where they were a year and a half ago. On the plus side, I locked down Robinson and Campanella before the run up; I don’t know where I’d be if I had to get them now.
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I too keep my sets in binders with just about all the cards raw.
The small amount of cards in a set that are graded are either on display or in the 4 pocket pages. Mike |
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When I feel like flipping through an album, I don't even have to leave my couch. :rolleyes:
1956 Topps Album |
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I used to see ultra pro (I think) 4 pocket pages that had “compartments” or recessed slots for graded cards….they would snap in. Seemed a better option than the regular 4 pocket pages. Did they stop making these? Any other options that folks here like? I see options on eBay but not sure they are reputable.
Also not sure if those are “universal”…they seem geared only to PSA amd not the other TPGs. I collect vintage sets the way other have posted…nice raw commons and typically the top 8-12 cards in each set graded. I think a regular binder should be big enough to house the raw commons in regular ultra pro sheets and 2-3 of those “snap-tight” graded sheets…if I can ever find good ones |
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