Vintage Undervalued Roookies

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by packs

All due respect to Tris Speaker and Eddie Collins but why exactly are they due for a bump? Outside of this board specifically, I think it would be tough to find any casual fan who is familiar with either player. The images on their T206's aren't very inspiring either. I know people like the Collins portrait but it doesn't catch my eye like say, the Lajoie with bat does.

I think when it comes to T206's card image is always going to play a major role in value. That's why Shag and Titus are where they are. And why the Lajoie with bat is where it is. Not sure I see any reason to pay more for Speaker or Collins.

Maybe one reason to pay more for Speaker or Collins over Lajoie is that they were better baseball players.

[packs]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

Maybe one reason to pay more for Speaker or Collins over Lajoie is that they were better baseball players.

That's not how it works though. Otherwise Ten Million's Obak wouldn't be worth what it is. There needs to be an X factor for a card to take off that otherwise hasn't. I don't see a ton of interest coming Eddie Collins' way.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by packs

That's not how it works though. Otherwise Ten Million's Obak wouldn't be worth what it is. There needs to be an X factor for a card to take off that otherwise hasn't. I don't see a ton of interest coming Eddie Collins' way.

Sorry, I don't know what system of valuation to which you're referring. The topic at hand is undervalued rookie cards; not the premium paid for cool mustaches, funny names, or beautiful sunsets.

[packs]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

Sorry, I don't know what system of valuation to which you're referring. The topic at hand is undervalued rookie cards; not the premium paid for cool mustaches, funny names, or beautiful sunsets.

Sure, but for something to be undervalued it has to be priced below the level the hobby generally views the player or card. So when someone says Ted Williams' rookie card is undervalued, it's because the hobby more or less loves Williams.

You're talking about Eddie Collins and Tris Speaker, who don't have that same status in the hobby. I think their cards are priced accordingly per the interest they have. So I'm wondering what you see. If you think they were better than people give them credit for, that's not how I interpreted the question about value. But is definitely fair to say. They were great players.

[jchcollins]

Feel free to disagree, but unless it's like the M101 Babe Ruth, I've never thought that some black and white cards have gotten their due simply because of that. Most if we are being honest simply aren't as attractive as color issues.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Feel free to disagree, but unless it's like the M101 Babe Ruth, I've never thought that some black and white cards have gotten their due simply because of that. Most if we are being honest simply aren't as attractive as color issues.

Agree with this. Wanted to buy Teddy Ballgame's RC so many times, but the card is so not attractive in b&w and just couldn't pull the trigger. His 54 Bowman is the card to own

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

Agree with this. Wanted to buy Teddy Ballgame's RC so many times, but the card is so not attractive in b&w and just couldn't pull the trigger. His 54 Bowman is the card to own

I've always preferred this Ted Williams card over all others.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Feel free to disagree, but unless it's like the M101 Babe Ruth, I've never thought that some black and white cards have gotten their due simply because of that. Most if we are being honest simply aren't as attractive as color issues.

I feel like BW is one of the reasons the '47 Bond Bread Jackie Robinsons haven't seen the increases his Leaf has. However does seem his Bond Bread portrait and rounded corner rookies are picking up steam of late.

[Blunder19]

I would say the 51 bowman mantle is under valued as compared to the jump the 52topps counter part has recognized. I think the 51 bowman mantle rookie will be on its way up on the near future. $10k for a psa 1 type jump.

[vansaad]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

I feel like BW is one of the reasons the '47 Bond Bread Jackie Robinsons haven't seen the increases his Leaf has. However does seem his Bond Bread portrait and rounded corner rookies are picking up steam of late.

It's a bit of an unknown if the Bond Bread portraits are keeping up with the other Jackie iconic cards ('48 Leaf, '49 Bowman & '52 Topps), but my guess is that a mid to high grade example would bring record prices if brought to market right now. The total pop is 10-20% of those other cards, so there are much fewer sales comps over the last few months since prices exploded. Two PSA 6's sold in August 2020 for $15k and $19k, and another PSA 6 sold in January for $30k, so it had begun to take off like the others. The SGC 8.5 sold last August for $35k. A PSA 7 sold for $32k in early December. Based on the recent surge in prices for Jackie, I think anything higher than a PSA 5 would probably set a record now.

[Great Winfield]

There are two that stand out to me in a relative sense (making no judgement on whether the overall valuation "tide" is too high or not):

1. 1965 Topps Joe Morgan - There are only 80 PSA 9's and 2 10's. Sure, it is a two-player card, but the 9 at ~$2500 is almost certainly among the very cheapest high-grade rookie cards for any top 20 all-time player.

2. 1939 Play Ball Ted Williams - There are only 88 PSA 8's, 1 8.5, 12 9's and 1 10. Given the soaring prices of other top players, how is the PSA 8 not a six-figure card?? A mythical figure and American hero. His Baseballreference.com page is pure stats porn. Almost 5 prime years lost to military service. Most folks likely know about him not winning MVP in either of his triple crown seasons (not to mention the 1941 0.406 avg season) - but how about posting a 190 OPS+ in his final age-41 season, better than Joe D's BEST ever such figure. Pretty good final AB too!

[rman444]

Originally Posted by Great Winfield

His Baseballreference.com page is pure stats porn.

This made me smile

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Great Winfield

There are two that stand out to me in a relative sense (making no judgement on whether the overall valuation "tide" is too high or not):

1. 1965 Topps Joe Morgan - There are only 80 PSA 9's and 2 10's. Sure, it is a two-player card, but the 9 at ~$2500 is almost certainly among the very cheapest high-grade rookie cards for any top 20 all-time player.

2. 1939 Play Ball Ted Williams - There are only 88 PSA 8's, 1 8.5, 12 9's and 1 10. Given the soaring prices of other top players, how is the PSA 8 not a six-figure card?? A mythical figure and American hero. His Baseballreference.com page is pure stats porn. Almost 5 prime years lost to military service. Most folks likely know about him not winning MVP in either of his triple crown seasons (not to mention the 1941 0.406 avg season) - but how about posting a 190 OPS+ in his final age-41 season, better than Joe D's BEST ever such figure. Pretty good final AB too!

With due respect to Bill James, I would not rate Morgan in the top 20 players of all time. Anywhere south of 2 I would not argue with Williams though.

[rats60]

It seems like all the guys who lost prime years to the war are underrated. Joe DiMaggio, Bob Feller, Hank Greenberg, Johnny Mize, etc. Even though Musial only lost 1 year, it still could have made a big difference, such as hitting 500+ HRs. With Williams spending 5 years in the service, people used to give him credit, but not really anymore.

For Williams just give him 154 game averages for those 5 seasons and he has 2400 runs, 3550 hits, 700 2b, 700 HR, 2450 RBI, 6500 TB, 2700 BB and 160 WAR. He is now top 5 in all those and 1st in runs, RBI and BB. If he happens to break Ruth's HR record first then his profile goes higher. As time goes by people just forget and not having those numbers suppress his card values.

[Illustrious]

Originally Posted by Great Winfield

There are two that stand out to me in a relative sense (making no judgement on whether the overall valuation "tide" is too high or not):

1. 1965 Topps Joe Morgan - There are only 80 PSA 9's and 2 10's. Sure, it is a two-player card, but the 9 at ~$2500 is almost certainly among the very cheapest high-grade rookie cards for any top 20 all-time player.

2. 1939 Play Ball Ted Williams - There are only 88 PSA 8's, 1 8.5, 12 9's and 1 10. Given the soaring prices of other top players, how is the PSA 8 not a six-figure card?? A mythical figure and American hero. His Baseballreference.com page is pure stats porn. Almost 5 prime years lost to military service. Most folks likely know about him not winning MVP in either of his triple crown seasons (not to mention the 1941 0.406 avg season) - but how about posting a 190 OPS+ in his final age-41 season, better than Joe D's BEST ever such figure. Pretty good final AB too!

One of the first things I did last Spring when I saw the sports card market was about go into a boom period, was look at the vintage cards I had on my want list and pick 1 or 2 that I knew would probably explode if I didn't get them asap. For me, the number one card I thought would get out of my reach if I didn't make a move was the '39 Play Ball Ted Williams RC, and I was fortunate enough to be able to win a SGC 1 for around $1200. The number two card I on my list, which technically is not a RC, was the '52 Topps Willie Mays, which I bought from Dean's at a inflated price at the time, but in hindsight was quite a deal.

[BRoberts]

Originally Posted by Illustrious

One of the first things I did last Spring when I saw the sports card market was about go into a boom period, was look at the vintage cards I had on my want list and pick 1 or 2 that I knew would probably explode if I didn't get them asap.

Congratulations on being able to forecast this boom period just before it happened. You probably wish you had bought more.

[Illustrious]

Originally Posted by BRoberts

Congratulations on being able to forecast this boom period just before it happened. You probably wish you had bought more.

Well I wouldn't say I forecast it before it happened, I just saw the frenzy in modern cards happening, especially in basketball with the hype from the Last Dance documentary pushing things up, and I knew it would eventually reach the vintage market. Of course I wish I could have bought more vintage cards then, but I was pushing it as-is with what I could afford, and I was more concerned with just having the cards in my collection before I was priced out, over buying multiples for future resale.

[dio]

Congrat. I feel the same way. Vintage has been undervalued for so so long. We just starting to pick up a little and ppl are already claiming we're in a big bubble.