Vintage Undervalued Roookies

[Big Six]

1965 Topps Carlton...


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[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Big Six

1965 Topps Carlton...


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I would tend to agree with you, but cards like that have seemingly been stuck in the mud for decades. '65 Carlton and Joe Morgan. '57 F. Robby and the '60 Yaz rookie. Just because a player is great doesn't always translate to card values. Stan Musial remains grossly undervalued for the player he was for virtually all of his cards that were produced after the 1940's. It's difficult to understand.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I would tend to agree with you, but cards like that have seemingly been stuck in the mud for decades. '65 Carlton and Joe Morgan. '57 F. Robby and the '60 Yaz rookie. Just because a player is great doesn't always translate to card values. Stan Musial remains grossly undervalued for the player he was for virtually all of his cards that were produced after the 1940's. It's difficult to understand.

On the flip side, there is no purely baseball reason for Mantle to dwarf everyone else in value; obviously there are many intangibles involved in why some players are relatively underappreciated card-wise. But I don't expect after all this time much will change for Musial, Spahn, Foxx, E Collins, etc.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

On the flip side, there is no purely baseball reason for Mantle to dwarf everyone else in value; obviously there are many intangibles involved in why some players are relatively underappreciated card-wise. But I don't expect after all this time much will change for Musial, Spahn, Foxx, E Collins, etc.

True, but Mantle is virtually a unique situation unto himself, owing to how the hobby evolved in the late 1970's and early 80's. When things went from underground hotel shows to retail and multiple card shops in many towns by 1985 and later, many of the target baby boomer customers had all grown up idolizing Mickey Mantle. That's what I attribute it to, anyway. From a pure baseball perspective, he wasn't as good as Williams, Musial, Mays, Aaron, and possibly others.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

True, but Mantle is virtually a unique situation unto himself, owing to how the hobby evolved in the late 1970's and early 80's. When things went from underground hotel shows to retail and multiple card shops in many towns by 1985 and later, many of the target baby boomer customers had all grown up idolizing Mickey Mantle. That's what I attribute it to, anyway. From a pure baseball perspective, he wasn't as good as Williams, Musial, Mays, Aaron, and possibly others.

Not totally unique. Maris values are utterly disproportionate. Same, honestly, with Koufax (150 wins). Munson. Purely statistically speaking, Jackie.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not totally unique. Maris values are utterly disproportionate. Same, honestly, with Koufax (150 wins). Munson. Purely statistically speaking, Jackie.

I would agree, but in proportion. Maris isn't valued anywhere near Mantle, of course.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Same, honestly, with Koufax (150 wins). Purely statistically speaking, Jackie.

You just shut your Dodger hating mouth.

Seriously though, while the mystique of what might have been (and the unprecedented run of dominance) definitely lift Koufax over what his career numbers would lead you to expect. I think Jackie is underrated as an actual player.

Jackie - all the percentage numbers are among the all time greats at the position OPS+ of 132 if 6th all time among 2b in the 20th century. Since the brevity of his career wasn't even injury, but rather societally created I don't think you can look at counting stats the same way you can even with someone like Koufax.

Make me a list of 2b with a career slash of .311/.409/.474 it's a damn short list! Not a lot of nearly .900 Career OPS guys at 2b.

162 Game average of 111 Runs 178 Hits 32 Doubles 6 Triples 16 Home Runs 86 RBI 23 Steals 87 BB and only 34 K's is pretty stellar.

So yeah the counting numbers might not be there, but he was never mediocre, his career wasn't shortened by injury. The stats he was able to put up in the time he had are pretty astonishing.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

True, but Mantle is virtually a unique situation unto himself, owing to how the hobby evolved in the late 1970's and early 80's. When things went from underground hotel shows to retail and multiple card shops in many towns by 1985 and later, many of the target baby boomer customers had all grown up idolizing Mickey Mantle. That's what I attribute it to, anyway. From a pure baseball perspective, he wasn't as good as Williams, Musial, Mays, Aaron, and possibly others.

There are several potential factors that explain the disproportionate value gaps between Mantle, Mays, and Aaron cards, considering their careers essentially began around the same time.

First, there is the Yankee factor. Mantle was a life-long Yankee, and played for the sporting world’s most well-known franchise. People collect the best player on the best team. Second, there is New York City factor. Although Mays partially played his career in NYC, Mantle played his entire career in it. Mantle received more exposure during his playing days.

Third, there is the winning factor. Mays and Aaron only have one title each. Mantle was a seven-time world series champion. Again, more exposure. Fourth, Mantle has the most iconic post-war card, which is arguably the second all-time most iconic card only behind the T-206 Wagner. There is a trickle-down effect to other cards. You see this with Wagner’s other cards as well.

Finally, I’m not trying to start any political debates, but there is the race factor. The 1950s and 1960s was obviously an entirely different era. White kids from this era grew up idolizing and pretending to be Mantle, while African American kids grew up idolizing and pretending to be Mays/Aaron at the plate in their sandlots.

This simply carried over to collecting. There are more white collectors than African American ones (at least based solely on my unscientific observations from attending shows for over 30 years), and these baby boomers are simply collecting their childhood hero more than Mays/Aaron. I think all these factors are at play.

On a side note, has anyone else observed the Mays explosion since January? You simply cannot find a decently priced Mays card anymore. Wow!

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

There are several potential factors that explain the disproportionate value gaps between Mantle, Mays, and Aaron cards, considering their careers essentially began around the same time.

Totally. The fact that he played his whole career in NY, was constantly showing his phiz on TV in October of every year, etc. etc. played heavily into WHY he was the idol of so many baby boomers who got into the hobby again in the 1980's.

[skelly423]

I've operated on this theory for a while, but the only players who really move the needle are all-time stars. Eventually everyone else fades into obscurity.
If you're not dealing with the players who were regarded as the top 1-2 players in the world during their career, their cards don't (and shouldn't) appreciate at the same rate as the all time greats.

There's no disrespect intended for these remarkable careers, but I don't look at these secondary stars as underpriced. I think their value reflects the fact that they aren't going to be the first names mentioned in a discussion of baseball history (Cobb, Ruth, Robinson, Mays, Aaron, etc.)

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by skelly423

I've operated on this theory for a while, but the only players who really move the needle are all-time stars. Eventually everyone else fades into obscurity.
If you're not dealing with the players who were regarded as the top 1-2 players in the world during their career, their cards don't (and shouldn't) appreciate at the same rate as the all time greats.

There's no disrespect intended for these remarkable careers, but I don't look at these secondary stars as underpriced. I think their value reflects the fact that they aren't going to be the first names mentioned in a discussion of baseball history (Cobb, Ruth, Robinson, Mays, Aaron, etc.)

This seems right to me - it's not about all-time stats. The players whose cards skyrocket are the ones who transcend the baseball fan/hobby demographic and have some level of broader pop cultural significance. Which makes perfect sense, in that having, say, a Warren Spahn rookie card doesn't allow you to show off, because you first have to educate 99% of people on who Warren Spahn was. Then maybe they'll be a little bit impressed. Whereas a lot more people will be instantly impressed by your Mickey or Jackie.

[skelly423]

Originally Posted by ASF123

This seems right to me - it's not about all-time stats. The players whose cards skyrocket are the ones who transcend the baseball fan/hobby demographic and have some level of broader pop cultural significance. Which makes perfect sense, in that having, say, a Warren Spahn rookie card doesn't allow you to show off, because you first have to educate 99% of people on who Warren Spahn was. Then maybe they'll be a little bit impressed. Whereas a lot more people will be instantly impressed by your Mickey or Jackie.

You said that better than I did. I will add that I think there may be some extra boost that comes when a player starred for a behemoth like the Yankees rather than a smaller market like Milwaukee. The Yankees bring an automatic boost to pop cultural appeal (my wife knows the Yankees, she's go no idea where the Braves play/played). It's not fair, but I do think that if Stan Musial played in NYC, he would be mentioned in the same echelon as Willie Mays. Likewise, Mickey Mantle as a St. Louis Brown becomes just another name.

[packs]

Originally Posted by skelly423

You said that better than I did. I will add that I think there may be some extra boost that comes when a player starred for a behemoth like the Yankees rather than a smaller market like Milwaukee. The Yankees bring an automatic boost to pop cultural appeal (my wife knows the Yankees, she's go no idea where the Braves play/played). It's not fair, but I do think that if Stan Musial played in NYC, he would be mentioned in the same echelon as Willie Mays. Likewise, Mickey Mantle as a St. Louis Brown becomes just another name.

That's been a prevalent theory in the hobby for a long time but interestingly enough it doesn't apply to modern cards in the least. Trout's cards can't be touched by anyone and he plays for a perennial loser and always will.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I would tend to agree with you, but cards like that have seemingly been stuck in the mud for decades. '65 Carlton and Joe Morgan. '57 F. Robby and the '60 Yaz rookie. Just because a player is great doesn't always translate to card values. Stan Musial remains grossly undervalued for the player he was for virtually all of his cards that were produced after the 1940's. It's difficult to understand.

But it wasn't always that way. Ted Williams and Musial used to be priced in higher tiers. Some of these rookie cards were priced much higher relative to where they are today. 1938 Goudey DiMaggio and 1939 Ted Williams for Prewar. 1948 Bowman Musial, 1957 Brooks Robinson, 1960 Yaz, 1965 Carlton, 1967 Seaver and 1973 Schmidt for postwar. The 1968 Bench was always the same as the 1968 Ryan until ~1989-91 when Ryan got hot. Mantle wasn't priced above other top tier HOFs until a few dealers decided to buy up Mantles to sell to non collectors. So, I wouldn't absolutely say that some of these couldn't turn around.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by rats60

But it wasn't always that way. Ted Williams and Musial used to be priced in higher tiers. Some of these rookie cards were priced much higher relative to where they are today. 1938 Goudey DiMaggio and 1939 Ted Williams for Prewar. 1948 Bowman Musial, 1957 Brooks Robinson, 1960 Yaz, 1965 Carlton, 1967 Seaver and 1973 Schmidt for postwar. The 1968 Bench was always the same as the 1968 Ryan until ~1989-91 when Ryan got hot. Mantle wasn't priced above other top tier HOFs until a few dealers decided to buy up Mantles to sell to non collectors. So, I wouldn't absolutely say that some of these couldn't turn around.

Yeah but the Mantle price points relative to other HOF'ers have been basically the same for 40 years now. It could change, but I would be surprised if it changes dramatically.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Yeah but the Mantle price points relative to other HOF'ers have been basically the same for 40 years now. It could change, but I would be surprised if it changes dramatically.

I really don't see Mantle being replaced at the top. However, some of those cards could be more in line. Collecting in the 60s, Ted Williams was #1 followed by Musial, Mays, Koufax and then Mantle. Mays and Aaron seem to be closing the gap and in the past Jackie and Clemente have made big jumps. I can see Ted and Stan being guys poised for good run ups with their RCs leading the way.

[AGuinness]

I think the Speaker T206 could be on the list, which is considered his rookie by some (I'm sure that topic could be a whole other post).
Overall, I'm not sure that ANY cards these days are being undervalued. Some of the prices are just jaw-dropping. I don't think this is a bubble, per say, but I think that it's very likely that many cards will drop back down some when the pandemic really slows down and people get back to "normal" lives (some cards certainly much more than others). We'll see how many of the new collector/investors stay active, how many sell to collect the profits and how many shove their cards in the back of the closet.

[packs]

All due respect to Tris Speaker and Eddie Collins but why exactly are they due for a bump? Outside of this board specifically, I think it would be tough to find any casual fan who is familiar with either player. The images on their T206's aren't very inspiring either. I know people like the Collins portrait but it doesn't catch my eye like say, the Lajoie with bat does.

I think when it comes to T206's card image is always going to play a major role in value. That's why Shag and Titus are where they are. And why the Lajoie with bat is where it is. Not sure I see any reason to pay more for Speaker or Collins.

[bigred1]

Stan Musial for me, even lost age 24 season for military service.