Card prices skyrocketing

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

It’s already started with Mays. The few cards I was looking at got out of my range overnight.

I noticed this as well...I had couple Mays cards in my "watch list" for auctions ending last Sunday. They closed at 2x what they would have about a week ago. I was expecting the passing of Aaron to cause a spike in Aaron cards...but I was NOT expecting Aaron's passing to affect Mays cards. But I think that's what happened.

[packs]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

I noticed this as well...I had couple Mays cards in my "watch list" for auctions ending last Sunday. They closed at 2x what they would have about a week ago. I was expecting the passing of Aaron to cause a spike in Aaron cards...but I was NOT expecting Aaron's passing to affect Mays cards. But I think that's what happened.

I don't really understand this phenomenon. Why does a death impact cards that have been in circulation for 70 years? I of course understand the bump autographs get after a death; there won't be anymore of them. But why do cards get the same bump?

[polakoff]

I used to feel this way, and I wrote bout it after Kobe died using almost the exact same wording as you about autographs: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...-sports-cards/

After Aaron died, I got it, and wrote a little mea culpa: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...en-heroes-die/

It is a bizarre thing and I truly didn't get it until last week. Something about seeing my Aarons made me want to hang onto them. I didn't even see the guy play. It's a strange mentality.

[Exhibitman]

“Agree it’s very rare that I see the younger generation set building say a guy who is in mid 30’s Wall Street manager makes 500k plus a year. He says he wants a 52 Mantle Jackie and Mays in PSA 7’s I ask him what about the rest of the set how are you doing on it. He says I don’t care for them I just want the Stars. High end common set building I think is a thing of the past.”

Johnny, I agree with much of this. I have never been a set builder because I didn’t care about the commons. Still do not. I used to be an anomaly, but now I am much closer to mainstream

“Mistake I've made is selling a card without having it's replacement lined up. I figured I'd sell it, get paid, then go shopping. Well the sale went fine, but it's been months now and I can't find the right replacement. In the meantime, prices seem to go up up up.”

So true. It is the only way to proceed in a market like this.

“Those of us who have been active for decades in the hobby are feeling like we are about to get priced out so we are pulling the trigger on big ones we have always wanted and even paying a little more than we wanted to. We do this because of the fear it will be out of our price range before long.”

Absolutely. I started doing that a few years ago with some cards; wish I’d done more. FOMO is real.

[Touch'EmAll]

Ok, agree the top tier vintage HOFers from prominent sets is what more people are trying to obtain these days. Commons not so much, even from big time sets.

I wonder what future may hold for some of the more obscure sets with Cobb/Matty/W. Johnson/etc. ? Not the T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey - but stuff like S74 silks, 1910 Sweet Cap pins, Domino Discs, to a lesser degree M116's, early Exhibits, odd 1920's issues - all have Cobb/Matty/Young/W. Johnson in them. These cards have been stagnant for a while now. Is it their time now to break thru and start skyrocketing?

Aaron vs. Mays - since way back their prices have been quite comparable. So now Aaron passes, his cards go up. I can see the logic behind the Mays cards closely following to keep pace.

No longer able to afford what I once collected, am now turning to modern shiny stuff of todays mega stars, Curry, Giannis, Trout, few others. It keeps me active in the hobby which is sure nice. And can't believe it but last couple weeks just plunked down some decent coin for a few old 1999 first year Pokemon Holo's. Oh, my - what am I doing ?!?!

[polakoff]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Ok, agree the top tier vintage HOFers from prominent sets is what more people are trying to obtain these days. Commons not so much, even from big time sets.

I wonder what future may hold for some of the more obscure sets with Cobb/Matty/W. Johnson/etc. ? Not the T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey - but stuff like S74 silks, 1910 Sweet Cap pins, Domino Discs, to a lesser degree M116's, early Exhibits, odd 1920's issues - all have Cobb/Matty/Young/W. Johnson in them. These cards have been stagnant for a while now. Is it their time now to break thru and start skyrocketing?

Aaron vs. Mays - since way back their prices have been quite comparable. So now Aaron passes, his cards go up. I can see the logic behind the Mays cards closely following to keep pace.

No longer able to afford what I once collected, am now turning to modern shiny stuff of todays mega stars, Curry, Giannis, Trout, few others. It keeps me active in the hobby which is sure nice. And can't believe it but last couple weeks just plunked down some decent coin for a few old 1999 first year Pokemon Holo's. Oh, my - what am I doing ?!?!

From my perspective the further away it is from a piece of cardboard the less it moves with the market. Strip cards lag behind standard cards, stamps behind them, and silks, blankets, pins, coins, and so on are far behind. They'll increase but I don't see them "breaking out." Just my two cents.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Ok, agree the top tier vintage HOFers from prominent sets is what more people are trying to obtain these days. Commons not so much, even from big time sets.

I wonder what future may hold for some of the more obscure sets with Cobb/Matty/W. Johnson/etc. ? Not the T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey - but stuff like S74 silks, 1910 Sweet Cap pins, Domino Discs, to a lesser degree M116's, early Exhibits, odd 1920's issues - all have Cobb/Matty/Young/W. Johnson in them. These cards have been stagnant for a while now. Is it their time now to break thru and start skyrocketing?

Aaron vs. Mays - since way back their prices have been quite comparable. So now Aaron passes, his cards go up. I can see the logic behind the Mays cards closely following to keep pace.

No longer able to afford what I once collected, am now turning to modern shiny stuff of todays mega stars, Curry, Giannis, Trout, few others. It keeps me active in the hobby which is sure nice. And can't believe it but last couple weeks just plunked down some decent coin for a few old 1999 first year Pokemon Holo's. Oh, my - what am I doing ?!?!

this..., nah....you'll probably have the last laugh

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by polakoff

I used to feel this way, and I wrote bout it after Kobe died using almost the exact same wording as you about autographs: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...-sports-cards/

After Aaron died, I got it, and wrote a little mea culpa: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...en-heroes-die/

It is a bizarre thing and I truly didn't get it until last week. Something about seeing my Aarons made me want to hang onto them. I didn't even see the guy play. It's a strange mentality.

That's a good piece on Aaron. I think your assessment it right. It's something I've thought about as well after seeing this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ-6Pe6iNyw

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by polakoff

I used to feel this way, and I wrote bout it after Kobe died using almost the exact same wording as you about autographs: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...-sports-cards/

After Aaron died, I got it, and wrote a little mea culpa: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...en-heroes-die/

It is a bizarre thing and I truly didn't get it until last week. Something about seeing my Aarons made me want to hang onto them. I didn't even see the guy play. It's a strange mentality.

I have collected his stuff for 45 years. While I am tempted to cash in my RC, I can't. This is the third one I've owned and each time I had to get another one.

As to prices in general, it is crazy. They are up so much that I've had to redo my insurance this year. I don't know how far it will go, but I am glad I didn't cash out some of the cards 30% ago when I was tempted.

[BobbyVCP]

To the point of the OP

I know of at least one Hedge Fund started and they raised $10 mil in the first 30 days. They are having additional rounds coming up and expect to raise about 50 mil by summer.

[tonyo]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I have collected his stuff for 45 years. While I am tempted to cash in my RC, I can't. This is the third one I've owned and each time I had to get another one.

As to prices in general, it is crazy. They are up so much that I've had to redo my insurance this year. I don't know how far it will go, but I am glad I didn't cash out some of the cards 30% ago when I was tempted.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

While I am tempted to cash in my RC, I can't.

I feel ya..... I'm whittling down my collection around the edges so It'll be more manageable when my daughters open the suitcase with Al Crisafulli's son.

I'm pretty confident I'll never sell any of my Aarons ... except maybe that 75 topps (uugghh)

[Fred]

Apply lessons learned from the GameStop and AMC Theatres stock manipulation... funny stuff.

[vintagewhitesox]

For the past 4-5 years, I've been picking up all the shiny stuff from the 90s. Cards I could not find as a teenager ripping wax at the weekend shows at the local VFW.
lately, those cards, mostly Jordan, Kobe (RIP) any basketball insert, has skyrocketed. Im getting pushed out of that part of the hobby. I don't see the all time greats losing value. But the newer stuff of active players does not seem sustainable.

[Jewish-collector]

Other hobbies like photography, gardening, playing sports, etc,... are more about techniques and skill rather than money. There are some expenses to them of course, but not to the degree of sports cards. Our hobby we all love is based more on money than anything else. Anyone very wealthy can have a world class sports card collection in a very short time.

If you're a low end collector like myself, you have to find other aspects of this hobby that give you enjoyment.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

If you're a low end collector like myself, you have to find other aspects of this hobby that give you enjoyment.

There are so many areas of memorabilia that seem undervalued, and even plenty of cards out there that don't cost much. Just now, I got on eBay and picked up about 15 WaJo cards from the last decade or so I hadn't gotten around to, all for about $25 total with shipping. Some of them are beautiful, much nicer than anything put out while he was playing. I will have a ball getting them in the mail one by one, then putting them in my WaJo card album. Us relatively poor guys are consigned to collecting what we see out there that we like and can afford, which is what everyone does, after all. Even with my limited resources I've never had any trouble finding plenty of stuff to collect.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

Other hobbies like photography, gardening, playing sports, etc,... are more about techniques and skill rather than money. There are some expenses to them of course, but not to the degree of sports cards. Our hobby we all love is based more on money than anything else. Anyone very wealthy can have a world class sports card collection in a very short time.

If you're a low end collector like myself, you have to find other aspects of this hobby that give you enjoyment.

I could not agree more. I’ve never understood why people congratulate others for their recent pickups. “Congratulations on that graded 7 1952 Topps Mantle.” What special skill did he demonstrate, other than having the funds to write a really large check? We are really congratulating his medical degree, law degree, or ability to operate a business, bank, or hedge fund. You hit the nail on the head - anyone with a checkbook can become a collecting God without any special skill, knowledge or technique.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Prices are moving up so fast, ebay buyers are having trouble with sellers cancelling orders because they can get more for the card the day after selling.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

Prices are moving up so fast, ebay buyers are having trouble with sellers cancelling orders because they can get more for the card the day after selling.

I made an offer of $900 on a card listed at $995 OBO. The seller raised the price to $1295 and countered at $1195. I declined on principal and the card sold an hour later. We’ve come a long way from sellers dealing with buyers canceling due to remorse.

[Rich Klein]

The buyers who cancel with remorse are mostly newer buyers who reneg when the card does not go up in price because of either on-field reversals or market adjustments.

Rich

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I made an offer of $900 on a card listed at $995 OBO. The seller raised the price to $1295 and countered at $1195. I declined on principal and the card sold an hour later. We’ve come a long way from sellers dealing with buyers canceling due to remorse.

I’ve also seen this first hand. More than once I’ve had a card listed, gotten several watchers, then raised the price on a hunch and had it sell almost immediately. I don’t totally understand the psychology behind it but it is definitely a thing.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I could not agree more. I’ve never understood why people congratulate others for their recent pickups. “Congratulations on that graded 7 1952 Topps Mantle.” What special skill did he demonstrate, other than having the funds to write a really large check? We are really congratulating his medical degree, law degree, or ability to operate a business, bank, or hedge fund. You hit the nail on the head - anyone with a checkbook can become a collecting God without any special skill, knowledge or technique.

I disagree. There's a member here who could buy any card he wants, and sometimes he does, who is one of the most gracious and supportive people here. He's also is a very knowledgeable collector with regards to the history of baseball and the importance of certain issues. I can get excited and congratulate him on a 20K acquisition that I know is important to his collection the same way I get excited for my friend Andy when he scores an E90-1 caramel for $40. Or a member who had been looking for a Clemente panel for 30 years, think about it, 30 years, it ain't about the money, it never has been. I've seen JollyElm score one off random stuff on the cheap all the time, I'm excited for him because he's excited about his acquisition and yes we should congratulate each other for our victories against the outside world. This is a special placed filled with really knowledgeable people of great character.

The guy you're talking about spends 5 mil on a Mantle and wears a t-shirt that says Dope on it for his Photo Op to promote his brand. I guarantee he could never attain the depth of knowledge that long time members here have spent decades acquiring. It's not about the money man, it never has been.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

There's a member here who could buy any card he wants, and sometimes he does, who is one of the most gracious and supportive people here. He's also is a very knowledgeable collector with regards to the history of baseball and the importance of certain issues. I can get excited and congratulate him on a 20K acquisition that I know is important to his collection the same way I get excited for my friend Andy when he scores an E90-1 caramel for $40. Or a member who had been looking for a Clemente panel for 30 years, think about it, 30 years, it ain't about the money, it never has been. I've seen JollyElm score one off random stuff on the cheap all the time, I'm excited for him because he's excited about his acquisition and yes we should congratulate each other for our victories against the outside world. This is a special placed filled with really knowledgeable people of great character.

That profile fits a lot of collectors: if it was just about money no one would bother writing, researching, or studying cards, there would be no National, etc. Money has been an issue lately because of the nutty market but collectors would be into it even if the cards were worthless. It's that excitement that is contagious, not the cost of the item.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

That profile fits a lot of collectors: if it was just about money no one would bother writing, researching, or studying cards, there would be no National, etc. Money has been an issue lately because of the nutty market but collectors would be into it even if the cards were worthless. It's that excitement that is contagious, not the cost of the item.

Well said. I always try to have cards in my collection that I just find enjoyment in so that if I woke up tomorrow and they were worthless, I'd still enjoy collecting them.

[obiwan1129]

I've given up on full sets like I used to do in the old days. More because I didn't want to go through all the packs of cards. I had boxes, upon boxes of sorted commons etc. When I started getting back into things 10-12 years ago I got really into all the chase cards and found that enjoyable. I mainly go after Cubs cards and enjoy that.

I read a write-up on the Orbit Gum pins and saw there were some pretty cool names in there and that with 60 pins in the unnumbered set, thought to myself that looks like I could do that and afford it. It was my first foray into the older stuff, other than a few stray low grade T206's I have. I started with a Kiki Cuyler and kinda went from there. I keep a spreadsheet with what I need, doubles and how much I have paid. I think I have managed to keep my costs down, but as I get to the last 3 it's dragging on. I've lost out on 2 Gabby Hartnett auctions over the last couple of months. Last second bidders, I can't bring myself to use a sniper auction tool.

I ran some numbers on Gwynn/Boggs/Sandberg 83 Topps PSA 10's over the last year. Wow. I really regret not buying some Sandberg 10's a couple of years back.

[Rich Klein]

1) The Hedge Fund money coming in is very real. I think we may have barely touched the surface of whom is coming in

2) Vintage Commons will probably settle down for the most part. Most of the "New" money is looking to buy the biggest names in the best condition possible. That means the cards have been professionally graded.

3) We've been going through this for at least 40 years now. Donny Lepore in a 1979, YES 1979 Baseball Hobby News had a quote something like this: "No one who is an expert would have sold a baseball card over the past 10 years until now". 40 years later, same principle seems to be applying

4) FOMO: If you think this is a bubble to be burst, then SELL into the Up Market. I realize this hurts on a collecting basis but if you believe this you will be able to BUY when the market softens. Nothing like using profits to make your costs on your collection cheaper

5) I have a friend in the DFW area who has been a collector/dealer for a long time and he was talking to his wife about selling too cheaply. His wife had some very sage comments: "Look at the beautiful collection you were able to amass with those profits." Nothing wrong with doing both if cards is NOT Your primary income. Now if you are a full-time dealer you should not be a collector except for a very limited basis just to remember what collectors do.

I'm sure there are things I've missed but one other thing

5.2) Everyone has the right to set whatever prices they want and everyone has the right to buy/not buy at those levels. That is really the basis of this business.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

1)5) I have a friend in the DFW area who has been a collector/dealer for a long time and he was talking to his wife about selling too cheaply. His wife had some very sage comments: "Look at the beautiful collection you were able to amass with those profits." Nothing wrong with doing both if cards is NOT Your primary income. Now if you are a full-time dealer you should not be a collector except for a very limited basis just to remember what collectors do.

This is my outlook. The card I could've sold for double today (rather than half yesterday) doesn't change anything if the card I'm buying is also double today.

[Popcorn]

I have newly listed eBay searches I check out to see what’s for sale and I can’t rack my brain around the prices lol

It’s a catch 22, nice my collection is more valuable but it’s tuff to pull the trigger when cards are doubling every MONTH!

clct earning next week will be interesting

[jchcollins]

Yeah it's kind of absurd. I was looking at a '67 Aaron last week for my set, and virtually everything on eBay that is graded has an asking price at least $100 above PSA Auction Prices or VCP. Maybe it will settle down some.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Yeah it's kind of absurd. I was looking at a '67 Aaron last week for my set, and virtually everything on eBay that is graded has an asking price at least $100 above PSA Auction Prices or VCP. Maybe it will settle down some.

You can win a graded 67 Aaron for $73.44 in the NLBM raffle on the front page.