Card prices skyrocketing

[Johnny630]

The younger generation of america is smart, has good jobs, and is wealthy; very wealthy. On higher end key GOATS in all Baseball Basketball and Football of Nrmt or better grades I can only see a continuation of prices going up from here.

It's great for the hobby/industry.

[Gnep31]

In 2020 I bought more modern product than I have in the past 10 years. In part because of speculation/high card prices and also because I am in an essential industry so we were not greatly effected by what Covid did to the economy. My vintage purchasing remained about the same, but it is getting harder to find deals for the items I collect.

I don't see myself purchasing anywhere near what I did last yr. I'm sure I will have some impulse buys, but actively hitting store after store looking for blasters won't happen this year. The new administration will vey likely have a negative impact on my industry with increased regulation, taxes and fuel prices. So I will be tightening the belt, so to speak, in most of my discretionary spending habits.

[dio]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The younger generation of america is smart, has good jobs, and is wealthy; very wealthy. On higher end key GOATS in all Baseball Basketball and Football of Nrmt or better grades I can only see a continuation of prices going up from here.

It's great for the hobby/industry.

Young generation just begin in their vintage adventure
They make too much in modern need to diversify their collection

[packs]

I am very happy to see my collection appreciating in value but I think anyone who pays 3K for a PSA 1 Cobb T206 is going to regret it.

[Exhibitman]

When it comes to the top cards condition is not detrimental to price increases. I paid more for a card with writing on it than I ever thought I would and I am happy to own it at that price.

[Hankphenom]

I think the demise of communism and growth of free-market capitalism in the past several decades has created a tremendous amount of wealth and left a LOT of money floating around, and I think this will continue for a while as more countries decide to stop being stupid and get on the prosperity bandwagon. I also believe that a sizeable portion of that money should have been going to pay off the party we've been having on our children, grandchildren, and more distant generations. At some point that same free market will come calling for its due--think rolling over a national debt of 30 trillion at 10% interest and see what's left for the rest of the budget--and there will be a serious rebalancing of spending priorities everywhere. But until that austerity gets imposed on us, we might as well enjoy our hobbies--as economists love to say, in the long run we're all dead--and who knows, when they start rolling the money-printing presses fast enough to try to pay off our bills from all those years of deficits, our cards might just become the new standard of value!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by packs

I am very happy to see my collection appreciating in value but I think anyone who pays 3K for a PSA 1 Cobb T206 is going to regret it.

Is this card worth 3K?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Is this card worth 3K?

If somebody paid it, then, uh, yes it is.

[packs]

Worth today and paid to acquire are two different principals. I would not want to pay close to 3K for a PSA 1 of any pose. But I already have two I still didn't pay 3K combined for so I don't really have to worry about it either:

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by packs

Worth today and paid to acquire are two different principals. I would not want to pay close to 3K for a PSA 1 of any pose. But I already have two I still didn't pay 3K combined for so I don't really have to worry about it either:

Yes, but that's like me saying I paid 600K for my house that is worth 1.3 now. Would I pay 1.3 for it, probably not because I already paid 600K for it, would somebody pay 1.3 for it yes. Could it be worth less than 1.3? of course, that's the cyclical nature of markets. Will a green Cobb like that sell for $800 again, maybe, I'm not sure what market forces would have to take place in order for that to happen but its going to be awhile before a Green Cobb 1 sells for $800 again. So if somebody wants one in their collection they have to pay the going rate, if the rate is too high they won't. Is an Aaron rookie worth 6K more this week than 2 weeks ago? Not to me but to plenty of people it is.

All fun stuff to talk about.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Yes, but that's like me saying I paid 600K for my house that is worth 1.3 now. Would I pay 1.3 for it, probably not because I already paid 600K for it, would somebody pay 1.3 for it yes. Could it be worth less than 1.3? of course, that's the cyclical nature of markets. Will a green Cobb like that sell for $800 again, maybe, I'm not sure what market forces would have to take place in order for that to happen but its going to be awhile before a Green Cobb 1 sells for $800 again. So if somebody wants one in their collection they have to pay the going rate, if the rate is too high they won't. Is an Aaron rookie worth 6K more this week than 2 weeks ago? Not to me but to plenty of people it is.

All fun stuff to talk about.

All good points. In the end it's good with the bad. Good my cards are worth more but bad I have to pay more for others. At the same time it's a lot easier to finance suddenly expensive cards if you're selling your own suddenly expensive cards.

[glchen]

I think it's a bubble, and it's in modern cards moreso than vintage. If the 3 year old Mahomes card is worth 200K, then that Cobb is worth 3K. This is irrational exuberance if I've ever seen it. I read on cnbc today Robinhood-type retail investors are trying to short squeeze hedge funds: Link. I think some folks are just throwing crazy money at different investment vehicles right now. Is this really the new normal, I don't know.

[jakebeckleyoldeagleeye]

I won a 1951-52 Parkhurst Richard PSA 6 in an auction 5 years ago for around $500 and what they are going for now just makes me shake my head.

[packs]

Originally Posted by jakebeckleyoldeagleeye

I won a 1951-52 Parkhurst Richard PSA 6 in an auction 5 years ago for around $500 and what they are going for now just makes me shake my head.

8 years ago I was the only bidder on this card and won it for $500

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by jakebeckleyoldeagleeye

I won a 1951-52 Parkhurst Richard PSA 6 in an auction 5 years ago for around $500 and what they are going for now just makes me shake my head.

There is no way you could buy a PSA 6 Rocket Richard rookie for $500 five years ago! They were worth much more than that!

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by glchen

I think it's a bubble, and it's in modern cards moreso than vintage. If the 3 year old Mahomes card is worth 200K, then that Cobb is worth 3K. This is irrational exuberance if I've ever seen it. I read on cnbc today Robinhood-type retail investors are trying to short squeeze hedge funds: Link. I think some folks are just throwing crazy money at different investment vehicles right now. Is this really the new normal, I don't know.

The stratospheric heights modern is going to may be a bubble, but long term I think it will hold higher value than all but Ruth and a few others - Gehrig, Jackie Robinson, Mantle, Mays, Aaron - in the vintage world.
The 80's to present day players are the sporting icons these last few generations have grown up with. It's this group of new collectors that are establishing the worth to own limited stock of the rookie card of players they've actually lived alongside and experienced first hand.
The vintage stuff wasn't birthed the same way..... it became widely popular with later hobby historians and deeply sport related enthusiasts.

I foresee RC's of Trout, MJ, Lebron, Jeter, Brady, and perhaps a few others like Montana/Rice, Mahomes, etc to be higher priced cards than almost all vintage.

It's not dumb to me, actually makes perfect sense
Old cardboard isn't fundamentally more valuable than new cardboard, it's the associations with a large enough collecting community that means the most.

I've actually grown to like the shiny stuff, I only really buy a little Lebron and Mahomes, but can enjoy the design and materials and limited print runs to create really pretty modern artwork.
There will be waaaaay more modern collectors who carry this hobby forward than the type of hard core knowledge hobbyists you'd find here on 54'.
Not a bad or good thing for mine, it just is.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

The stratospheric heights modern is going to may be a bubble, but long term I think it will hold higher value than all but Ruth and a few others in the vintage world.
These are the sporting icons these last few generations have grown up with. It's this group of new collectors that are establishing the worth to own limited stock of the rookie card of players they've actually lived alongside and experienced first hand.
The vintage stuff wasn't birthed the same way..... it became widely popular with later hobby historians and deeply sport related enthusiasts.

I foresee RC's of Trout, MJ, Lebron, Jeter, Brady, and perhaps a few others like Montana/Rice, Mahomes, etc to be higher priced cards than almost all vintage.

It's not dumb to me, actually makes perfect sense
Old cardboard isn't fundamentally more valuable than new cardboard, it's the associations with a large enough collecting community that means the most.

I've actually grown to like the shiny stuff, I only really buy a little Lebron and Mahomes, but can enjoy the design and materials and limited print runs to create really pretty modern artwork.
There will be waaaaay more modern collectors who carry this hobby forward than the type of hard core knowledge hobbyists you'd find here on 54'.
Not a bad or good thing for mine, it just is.

Agree Especially with Modern NBA a lot of Foreign PRC Cash ! They love Jordan Kobe and Lebron and they have a lot of hens too.

[68Hawk]

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws or differentiation like 'backs'.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k T206 Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

[Kutcher55]

The Aaron mania is really something. I never thought his cards would go this bonkers following his passing. That didn't happen as much with the other HOFers that left us recently. Of course, Aaron is in a class by himself compared to those other greats, and his cards were probably undervalued for a very long time certainly relative to the Mick and so it sorta makes sense. His RC had a huge run-up in the past year+ and then he passes away and it jumps 50% overnight. It's a beautiful card and on the short list of post WW2 most important cards no doubt. But it's not like it's a particularly rare issue. Then again, supply/demand. Before he died you had 500 guys looking for his RC at any given moment. Now it's probably 2,500 guys or something.

I also wonder if the passing of someone of his cultural significance has drawn attention to HOF rookie cards in general. You gotta think people are doing the math and thinking Willie Mays is a great investment right now. Even relatively dormant and high pop RCs like the 1960 Yaz card have seen quite a jump here in the past 30-60 days.

It's great if you were able to get in on some of these cards a year ago, or even a month ago, which is probably everyone on these boards. So you also have the phenomena where most hobbyists are playing with house money as they watch the value of their collections jump up day after day. And so between that and covid and the stiumulus you've got guys throwing money around, not just the ultra rich either. I can't say what is likely to happen but the short run looks good for more growth. Not sure about the medium/long run.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I also wonder if the passing of someone of his cultural significance has drawn attention to HOF rookie cards in general. You gotta think people are doing the math and thinking Willie Mays is a great investment right now. Even relatively dormant and high pop RCs like the 1960 Yaz card have seen quite a jump here in the past 30-60 days.

It’s already started with Mays. The few cards I was looking at got out of my range overnight.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

It’s already started with Mays. The few cards I was looking at got out of my range overnight.

I noticed this as well...I had couple Mays cards in my "watch list" for auctions ending last Sunday. They closed at 2x what they would have about a week ago. I was expecting the passing of Aaron to cause a spike in Aaron cards...but I was NOT expecting Aaron's passing to affect Mays cards. But I think that's what happened.

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Is this card worth 3K?

When a non-descript new sofa and couple of matching chairs run you the same number, that you will discard or sell for peanuts in ten years at a garage sale, then yes, owning something that will be preserved and desired by many going forward is easily worth 3k.

People need to dispose of their imagination that limits card collecting to a casual affordable hobby whose focus was assembling full collections of certain issues, or teams, or favorite players, and onto the new reality that today we value collecting and keeping certain things that speak to us. And JUST those things that speak to us, not the surrounding flotsam.
In Net54 speak, it's about being a type collector or HOF collector rather than set collector. Using your available resources to target only what you most desire to see every day.

Young people 20-40 years old aren't as wedded to the aquisition of their first home as a settling stone foundation to an early marriage, or future wealth basis.
They want to surround themselves with things that speak to their experiences, some sporting, some musical perhaps, and a litany of others.
They get paid great money, they're not raising kids, they either grew up during or hearing later about the dot com bubble and how some made their riches, the fact their parents bet and continue to bet most of their entire retirement on some vague thing called stocks and futures and stuff - most of which are based on trading and questionable book keeping rather than a true representation of companies production and worth - and think 'sure', a green Cobb sounds cool and at least as worthy of worth.
'No, maybe can't afford a $40K example, but 3K, yep - is it legible?'
The condition isn't the qualifier, but rather the opportunity for ownership against competing interest.

If you don't revamp your thinking of what this 'hobby' has evolved into, you'll be stuck wondering the same stuff over and over again and unable to understand the opportunities it will raise for you......especially if you have reasonable hobby knowledge.

These new investors don't learn thaaaat much before making a decision, they go with name recognition, where they see the money moving and seeming general interest to reside.
So if as a vintage hobbyist you know the hobby icons that will be most valuable going forward, the scarcity of those players issues and historical desirability thereof, you will be able to navigate and safely either purchase to own, or trade in and out of to improve your collection or wealth going forward.

Strap up if you want to participate, it's a new world.