Card prices skyrocketing

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by glchen

I think it's a bubble, and it's in modern cards moreso than vintage. If the 3 year old Mahomes card is worth 200K, then that Cobb is worth 3K. This is irrational exuberance if I've ever seen it. I read on cnbc today Robinhood-type retail investors are trying to short squeeze hedge funds: Link. I think some folks are just throwing crazy money at different investment vehicles right now. Is this really the new normal, I don't know.

The stratospheric heights modern is going to may be a bubble, but long term I think it will hold higher value than all but Ruth and a few others - Gehrig, Jackie Robinson, Mantle, Mays, Aaron - in the vintage world.
The 80's to present day players are the sporting icons these last few generations have grown up with. It's this group of new collectors that are establishing the worth to own limited stock of the rookie card of players they've actually lived alongside and experienced first hand.
The vintage stuff wasn't birthed the same way..... it became widely popular with later hobby historians and deeply sport related enthusiasts.

I foresee RC's of Trout, MJ, Lebron, Jeter, Brady, and perhaps a few others like Montana/Rice, Mahomes, etc to be higher priced cards than almost all vintage.

It's not dumb to me, actually makes perfect sense
Old cardboard isn't fundamentally more valuable than new cardboard, it's the associations with a large enough collecting community that means the most.

I've actually grown to like the shiny stuff, I only really buy a little Lebron and Mahomes, but can enjoy the design and materials and limited print runs to create really pretty modern artwork.
There will be waaaaay more modern collectors who carry this hobby forward than the type of hard core knowledge hobbyists you'd find here on 54'.
Not a bad or good thing for mine, it just is.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

The stratospheric heights modern is going to may be a bubble, but long term I think it will hold higher value than all but Ruth and a few others in the vintage world.
These are the sporting icons these last few generations have grown up with. It's this group of new collectors that are establishing the worth to own limited stock of the rookie card of players they've actually lived alongside and experienced first hand.
The vintage stuff wasn't birthed the same way..... it became widely popular with later hobby historians and deeply sport related enthusiasts.

I foresee RC's of Trout, MJ, Lebron, Jeter, Brady, and perhaps a few others like Montana/Rice, Mahomes, etc to be higher priced cards than almost all vintage.

It's not dumb to me, actually makes perfect sense
Old cardboard isn't fundamentally more valuable than new cardboard, it's the associations with a large enough collecting community that means the most.

I've actually grown to like the shiny stuff, I only really buy a little Lebron and Mahomes, but can enjoy the design and materials and limited print runs to create really pretty modern artwork.
There will be waaaaay more modern collectors who carry this hobby forward than the type of hard core knowledge hobbyists you'd find here on 54'.
Not a bad or good thing for mine, it just is.

Agree Especially with Modern NBA a lot of Foreign PRC Cash ! They love Jordan Kobe and Lebron and they have a lot of hens too.

[68Hawk]

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws or differentiation like 'backs'.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k T206 Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

Agree it’s very rare that I see the younger generation set building say a guy who is in mid 30’s Wall Street manager makes 500k plus a year. He says he wants a 52 Mantle Jackie and Mays in PSA 7’s I ask him what about the rest of the set how are you doing on it. He says I don’t care for them I just want the Stars. High end common set building I think is a thing of the past.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Agree it’s very rare that I see the younger generation set building say a guy who is in mid 30’s Wall Street manager makes 500k plus a year. He says he wants a 52 Mantle Jackie and Mays in PSA 7’s I ask him what about the rest of the set how are you doing on it. He says I don’t care for them I just want the Stars. High end common set building I think is a thing of the past.

You might be right about the "High end" common set building. However, I don't think vintage set building will die overall.

As a collector of baseball cards (not an investor), building sets is how I stretch my card budget. I can only afford so many BIG cards each year (for me, a BIG card is $100+). So I pick sets that have a few BIG cards in them and then build around them. That gives me a reason to search for and acquire cards on a regular basis that won't break the bank. Then a few times a year I treat myself to a BIG card. It's a fun way to collect on a budget.

I feel like there are enough guys like me (and most vintage sets are rare enough) that there will ALWAYS be a market for commons. You may not profit very much from buying mid-grade commons, but I think they'll hold their value in the decades to come.

The problem I'm having (and is the subject of this thread) is that many of those BIG cards are getting out of my price range...so I'm having to get creative with the sets I'm chasing.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws or differentiation like 'backs'.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k T206 Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

Did you see the T206 prices realized in all the David Hall (Heritage) auctions? Prices keep going up, and setting records. A common BL460 actually sold for $18k the other night...not $8k anymore. The big sets (T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey, 52 Topps) will always be in demand. It’s been that way for decades, and no signs of slowing down. The great thing with this hobby is the immense variety of “flavors”, something for everyone.

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Did you see the T206 prices realized in all the David Hall (Heritage) auctions? Prices keep going up, and setting records. A common BL460 actually sold for $18k the other night...not $8k anymore. The big sets (T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey, 52 Topps) will always be in demand. It’s been that way for decades, and no signs of slowing down. The great thing with this hobby is the immense variety of “flavors”, something for everyone.

Agree with both your points, however how many of the 'everyone' that wants T206 commons/Cracker Jack commons/Goudey commons/52' Commons will remain in the hobby going forward is the point I was making.
The people supporting much of the vintage hobby and especially the deep pocketed ones have been doing so since the early 2000's and before.
They knew what they liked before it cost a bunch, were hunting rarity then and ever since, and still have the where with all and interest to 'complete' their searching desires.

I don't believe many of those collectors are going to be replaced in 20 years time. While this is the stuff of which we've all been enamored for the last 60 years, its relevance to those born since the 1980's is far less than what you might hope.

I never said all, I was careful to do so. Younger collectors find this site all the time and begin their journeys just as many of us have done over the decades.
But if they are competing against fewer collectors as those of us in our 50's and older die off, prices for esoteric no-name player stuff won't be there.
IMO.

It's a long course call, am totally happy for you to believe otherwise.
It's when talk of bubbles, and growth, and where that growth has it's belly, that I think sky high numbers for non HOF players are most risky for massive correction.

[MVSNYC]

Gotcha. Fair enough. So, in your scenario, down the line, you're saying HOF/high-profile vintage players, will still be in demand (within T206, CJ, Goudey, 52 Topps, etc), but commons not so much?

[Hankphenom]

As a significant economic enterprise, sports card and memorabilia buying and selling is a young endeavor, roughly 40 years old. In that time, prices may have briefly stalled a time or two, but in general have risen steadily throughout. I don't think two generations of this experience is enough to claim some kind of permanent situation, though, and as others have pointed out, in particular there are compelling macroeconomic reasons to explain the recent surge, including simple momentum. Much of what we collect will have continuing appeal, along with all kinds of other antiques and collectibles, but a mere generation or two pushing prices higher and higher over a few decades doesn't give me the confidence that at some point that momentum won't slow, stop, or even reverse. Everything always seems to be the way it has always been, until it isn't anymore.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

As a significant economic enterprise, sports card and memorabilia buying and selling is a young endeavor, roughly 40 years old. In that time, prices may have briefly stalled a time or two, but in general have risen steadily throughout. I don't think two generations of this experience is enough to claim some kind of permanent situation, though, and as others have pointed out, in particular there are compelling macroeconomic reasons to explain the recent surge, including simple momentum. Much of what we collect will have continuing appeal, along with all kinds of other antiques and collectibles, but a mere generation or two pushing prices higher and higher over a few decades doesn't give me the confidence that at some point that momentum won't slow, stop, or even reverse. Everything always seems to be the way it has always been, until it isn't anymore.

Great post

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Gotcha. Fair enough. So, in your scenario, down the line, you're saying HOF/high-profile vintage players, will still be in demand (within T206, CJ, Goudey, 52 Topps, etc), but commons not so much?

Yup.

[rjackson44]

Ive been buying bread issues and t210s orange borders ,just saying

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws or differentiation like 'backs'.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k T206 Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

I think it is a generation or 2 away before it starts to happen.

[Touch'EmAll]

Out of all the new younger card collectors/investors, one would have to argue at some point enough of them will eventually gravitate to big name vintage - then what, that currently spendy Cobb/W. Johnson/Matty/Ruth/Gehrig etc. will cost a whole lot more.

Just sittin' on my stuff with a smile.

Yeah, I too have dabbled in modern last year or two, raw. I have about 175 cards into PSA for grading. The turnaround is crazy long these days. But look at it this way, if I already had them back in reasonable turnaround time I would probably have sold a bunch. Now I am forced to sit and wait for my submission ... while prices keep rising, and rising. Thank you PSA for taking such a long time - will get even more for them later.