Poll: is Mariano Rivera one of the top 10 pitchers of all time?

[Ricky]

Yes, Rivera is the greatest one inning closer ever. We all agree on that. What we don't agree on is that he is the greatest pitcher of all time... or in the Top 10.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Ricky

Yes, Rivera is the greatest one inning closer ever. We all agree on that. What we don't agree on is that he is the greatest pitcher of all time... or in the Top 10.

Define pitcher. Because if its the pitcher who wins you the game, Mariano is the best hands down.

[Ricky]

Cy Young and his 511 wins say hello.

[packs]

I think we can agree on this point: getting the win and winning the game are not the same thing.

[Ricky]

Originally Posted by packs

I think we can agree on this point: getting the win and winning the game are not the same thing.

You can't win the game if the pitcher(s) before you don't put you in that position. I think you are in a deep minority in considering Mariano the greatest pitcher of all time, but as you are obviously a diehard Yankees fan, I do understand it. As much as I appreciate what he accomplished over a long time in his role, I can't consider a one inning pitcher who probably would have failed miserably and not lasted anywhere near as long had he been asked to throw 250 innings a year, the greatest pitcher of all time. Not up against starting pitchers who, in many cases, were as dominant or moreso in their roles as he was.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by packs

I think we can agree on this point: getting the win and winning the game are not the same thing.

I will grant you the point that they are different things, and Mariano wasn't good at either of them.

"Saving" the win (when bolstered by a 90% chance of winning due to the game situation when he pitched) is something that Mariano was good at.

"Getting the win" or "winning the game" not so much.

[packs]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

I will grant you the point that they are different things, and Mariano wasn't good at either of them.

"Saving" the win (when bolstered by a 90% chance of winning due to the game situation when he pitched) is something that Mariano was good at.

"Getting the win" or "winning the game" not so much.

I see those numbers listed in the article but I still don't understand where they come from. I posted this the other day. The highest save percentage for a team in 2018 was only 75 %. So where does that 90% chance of winning come from? The league average for all of MLB was only 66%.

http://proxy.espn.com/mlb/stats/team...ded&order=true

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by packs

I see those numbers listed in the article but I still don't understand where they come from. I posted this the other day. The highest save percentage for a team in 2018 was only 75 %. So where does that 90% chance of winning come from? The league average for all of MLB was only 66%.

http://proxy.espn.com/mlb/stats/team...ded&order=true

It comes in your beloved 9th inning, when a team goes in while leading.

[BearBailey]

No, not even close.

[Bigdaddy]

Trying to compare a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher is like trying to compare a first baseman with a shortstop. They are both infielders, but are asked to do two very different things.

Would you vote Lou Gehrig as the best infielder ever? Over Wags, Ripken, Brooks, Schmitty, etc?? Why, he didn't even have to throw the ball.

Of course not, they are two different positions, but both infielders. Just like relievers and starters are both pitchers, but different positions.

This is a baited question. It should be: Was Mo the greatest reliever ever?

The game changes. Roles change. Relief pitchers are now not just failed starters, designated hitters are a thing. And we are seeing even more changes with more defensive shifts, hitters swinging for the fence, higher strikeout numbers, managers handling pitchers differently, off-season conditioning, etc.

Mo was the greatest at what he did. He shortened the game to 8 innings for the Yankees on defense. He wasn't a starter any more than he was a shortstop. So don't try to compare him to one.

BTW, I voted 'no' on this question, but I think it was the wrong question.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

...but I think it was the wrong question.

I agree with everything you said accept the last part. Based on conversations taking place since his unanimous induction it was a valid question, posed not so much to elicit a response but to make a point.

And I agree with your vote.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by packs

Define pitcher. Because if its the pitcher who wins you the game, Mariano is the best hands down.

Your hands may be down, I'm thinking that Cy Young (and others) have a different hand position...

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by packs

Define pitcher. Because if its the pitcher who wins you the game, Mariano is the best hands down.

Stealing from the ESPN story from 2013 that Paul posted a link to below :

Let me again cite the work of Project Retrosheet founder Dave Smith:


Teams leading by one run after eight innings have gone on to win 85.7 percent of the time. That number goes up to 93.7 percent when leading by two runs, and 97.5 percent when leading by three runs.

Mull that over, and then please tell me why Rivera is so amazing for having an 89.1 percent career save rate (which, by the way, is lower than Joe Nathan's). Because, basically, Rivera was not used except in games the Yankees were going to win 88 percent of the time anyway. Actually, the percentages were usually higher than that. According to Elias, of Rivera's 652 career saves, just under a third (210) were with a one-run lead when he took the mound while 216 were with a two-run lead, 180 with a three-run lead and 46 with a lead of at least four runs.


To paraphrase, Mariano has :
210 saves when he came in with an 85.7% chance of winning
216 saves when he came in with a 93.7% chance of winning
180 saves when he came in with a 97.5% chance of winning
46 saves when he came in with better than a 97.5% chance of winning

The save is a stupid stat.

As I said before, he was really really good, probably the best, at the job he was asked to do.

Doug

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Stealing from the ESPN story from 2013 that Paul posted a link to below :

Let me again cite the work of Project Retrosheet founder Dave Smith:


Teams leading by one run after eight innings have gone on to win 85.7 percent of the time. That number goes up to 93.7 percent when leading by two runs, and 97.5 percent when leading by three runs.

Mull that over, and then please tell me why Rivera is so amazing for having an 89.1 percent career save rate (which, by the way, is lower than Joe Nathan's). Because, basically, Rivera was not used except in games the Yankees were going to win 88 percent of the time anyway. Actually, the percentages were usually higher than that. According to Elias, of Rivera's 652 career saves, just under a third (210) were with a one-run lead when he took the mound while 216 were with a two-run lead, 180 with a three-run lead and 46 with a lead of at least four runs.


To paraphrase, Mariano has :
210 saves when he came in with an 85.7% chance of winning
216 saves when he came in with a 93.7% chance of winning
180 saves when he came in with a 97.5% chance of winning
46 saves when he came in with better than a 97.5% chance of winning

The save is a stupid stat.

As I said before, he was really really good, probably the best, at the job he was asked to do.

Doug

You are comparing apples and oranges. Save rate is not win rate. You can blow the save and still win the game so save rate is the more restrictive of the two. I think we can all agree that starter and closer are two different pitching positions. We can also agree that Mariano was by far the greatest closer ever. Mariano was superior to any other closer ever by more than the best starting pitcher ever (you fill in your choice)has been to the second best starting pitcher ever. I’ll stop there. If I had to get one hitter out and could pick one pitcher to do it it would be Mariano. If I needed a starting pitcher for game 7 of the World Series, and I would be hoping he could go deep into the game, it would not be Mariano.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

You are comparing apples and oranges. Save rate is not win rate. You can blow the save and still win the game so save rate is the more restrictive of the two. I think we can all agree that starter and closer are two different pitching positions. We can also agree that Mariano was by far the greatest closer ever. Mariano was superior to any other closer ever by more than the best starting pitcher ever (you fill in your choice)has been to the second best starting pitcher ever. I’ll stop there. If I had to get one hitter out and could pick one pitcher to do it it would be Mariano. If I needed a starting pitcher for game 7 of the World Series, and I would be hoping he could go deep into the game, it would not be Mariano.

I'm not comparing anything, I'm saying that while he was really really good at what he was asked to do, he was still very one dimensional and the difference between him and any other "closer" is best argued by the David Smith research paper that Peter posted below.

He was a really really good 1 inning pitcher when staked to a lead.

We never really got to see him pitch much in other situations.

Doug

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

You are comparing apples and oranges. Save rate is not win rate. You can blow the save and still win the game so save rate is the more restrictive of the two. I think we can all agree that starter and closer are two different pitching positions. We can also agree that Mariano was by far the greatest closer ever. Mariano was superior to any other closer ever by more than the best starting pitcher ever (you fill in your choice)has been to the second best starting pitcher ever. I’ll stop there. If I had to get one hitter out and could pick one pitcher to do it it would be Mariano. If I needed a starting pitcher for game 7 of the World Series, and I would be hoping he could go deep into the game, it would not be Mariano.

You have to wonder at his remarkably low inherited runner total. If he was indeed the best ever at getting that one batter out, why wasn't he used more in emergency situations, as opposed to starting the ninth with a lead? 8th inning, two men on, none out, down by a run, don't you want your best pitcher in there to keep the game in check? But I think Rivera was rarely the guy who got that call.

[Throttlesteer]

I'm really dreading the discussion that comes about when Jeter goes in. I'm sure he'll be considered the greatest ever by someone.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

I'm really dreading the discussion that comes about when Jeter goes in. I'm sure he'll be considered the greatest ever by someone.

At least he played entire games...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

I'm really dreading the discussion that comes about when Jeter goes in. I'm sure he'll be considered the greatest ever by someone.

It will be very hard to argue he was better than Wagner or Ripken or (assuming you count him as a SS) ARod. For Jeter I think much of your rating depends on how much you count defense for a SS -- if you count it a lot, that's going to take away from him because he was pretty average all told.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

I'm really dreading the discussion that comes about when Jeter goes in. I'm sure he'll be considered the greatest ever by someone.

I would not say he is the greatest ever or even the best shortstop but I doubt you can name a singe player that tried harder while playing.

[tschock]

.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by packs

Define pitcher. Because if its the pitcher who wins you the game, Mariano is the best hands down.

Mariano is NOT winning the game....he is SAVING the game by getting 3 outs of the 27 needed to complete a 9 inning game. That’s why he gets a SAVE and NOT a WIN! Very simple reasoning here. If you are trying to say a pitcher who closes out a game by getting 3 outs with no men on base when he enters the game is more important than the pitcher who recorded 24 outs over 8 innings to put his team in a win situation, then I really don’t what to say???? Your stance makes absolutely ZERO sense. Plus, add the fact that the great pre-1980 starting pitchers completed all 9 innings for many of their wins, Mariano cannot even be mentioned in the SAME BREATH as these great starters. The pre-1980 starting pitchers were closing out their own games after throwing 100+ pitches. Mariano closed out games throwing 15-20’pitches at 100% capacity. No need to pace himself, no need to make batter adjustments because this is the 2nd/3rd/4th time you are facing the same hitter, etc. FYI, for the record I am a HUGE Yankee fan and worshiped Rivera. However, him being the greatest closer ever will never cloud my judgement regarding Rivera’s all-time stature vs. a great starting pitcher. No contest whatsoever. He cannot even be mentioned in the same breath with baseball’s great starting pitchers. Case closed.