Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by glchen

The part here that concerns me, and I hope it is not the case is that I hope these 10 to 30 people that are pushing the market are truly collector/investors, and not card dealers who are in collusion with other card dealers to basically exchange inventory among themselves while pushing the value of their entire holdings up.

Yes...a highly possible scenario.

[Yoda]

Watch out Hobby when the next T206 Honus hits the market. Dutch tulips step aside, this is the real deal. I bet a few of the lucky holders of the "Holy Grail" are getting itchy palms just wondering how much the old boy might fetch. Lots and lots of Benjamins for one baseball card. Hmmm

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Watch out Hobby when the next T206 Honus hits the market. Dutch tulips step aside, this is the real deal. I bet a few of the lucky holders of the "Holy Grail" are getting itchy palms just wondering how much the old boy might fetch. Lots and lots of Benjamins for one baseball card. Hmmm

Forget the Benjamins; Woodrow Wilsons.

[bravos4evr]

The thing is, those "investors" who pay $150k for a rose rookie are going to want to flip it for $200k and soon too, eventually there is going to come a time when some of these "whales" (to use gambling parlance) are going to liquidate everything and someone , or several ones, are going to be left holding the bag as the prices become unsustainable. Sure some cards will always rise, but they tend to do it slowly, these 1000% bumps in just a few months are going to cause a landslide eventually.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

The thing is, those "investors" who pay $150k for a rose rookie are going to want to flip it for $200k and soon too, eventually there is going to come a time when some of these "whales" (to use gambling parlance) are going to liquidate everything and someone , or several ones, are going to be left holding the bag as the prices become unsustainable. Sure some cards will always rise, but they tend to do it slowly, these 1000% bumps in just a few months are going to cause a landslide eventually.

+1 - couldn't have said it any better myself.

[Maraya]

It's got to be a bubble. What goes up, must come down. I saw a tremendous rise of coins in the 1980 rare coin market with wall street investors buying up rare coins. Then in the early 80's the market began to slide downwards as those investors began to sell off. it has taken years maybe couple of decades to come back. Make purchases with the head, not the heart.

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Maraya

It's got to be a bubble. What goes up, must come down. I saw a tremendous rise of coins in the 1980 rare coin market with wall street investors buying up rare coins. Then in the early 80's the market began to slide downwards as those investors began to sell off. it has taken years maybe couple of decades to come back. Make purchases with the head, not the heart.

Welcome to the board. For those who don't know her - Marion is a long time well respected card dealer

Rich

[vintagesportscollector]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Welcome to the board. For those who don't know her - Marion is a long time well respected card dealer

Rich

Welcome! 7 years to make your first post...that's a new record.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Forget the Benjamins; Woodrow Wilsons.

Great reference! I wonder how may got it?

Chase would be more realistic, and I'd guess you know why, but does anyone else?

Steve B

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by steve B

Great reference! I wonder how may got it?

Chase would be more realistic, and I'd guess you know why, but does anyone else?

Steve B

Yes...we've all seen the big bills.

[steve B]

I've never seen the two big ones in person, but did often win a few beers using them as bar trivia questions. The top one isn't believed to have circulated publicly but was used for transferring largish sums between banks.

Steve B

[jmb]

The $100k Wilson bill is illegal to own as it was only used between banks. It has an orange back as it is a Gold Certificate. The $10k Chase bill is the largest bill one can legally own. It was issued as both a Federal Reserve note and a Gold Certificate. Another hobby of mine.

[Exhibitman]

As interesting as this all is academically, to an average upper middle class professional person who collects as a leisure activity (like me) what happens with five and six figure PSA-labeled RCs has as much relevance as a discussion of prices on brownstones on Park Avenue in Manhattan. I am not in the market for one, I will never be in the market for one, and I don't really care whether it sells for $10,000 or $10,000,000, because over a certain price level I have no foreseeable stake in the outcome.

If I happened to be holding one of these marquee cards right now I would certainly liquidate it and replace it with a nice looking example in a holder with a lower number. That's just common sense for a collector like me: when I can pay for a year of college tuition by selling a single card and still have enough change to buy a nice looking one for myself, that card is gone.

The sole effect this has on a commoner like me (besides just making me sad about where a hobby I enjoy is going) is to push me to get into cards I've wanted but not had any urgency to get, simply because I know that there will be more competition for these cards now that the specimens in high end slabs have been priced out of most collectors' ranges. Which is why these pasteboard treasures both are and are not commodities like gold. When the price of gold rises to dizzying heights, investors move to another commodity, but when a 1954 Aaron rises precipitously, us Aaron collectors can't just 'skip' it and not have his RC. We downshift to lower grade specimens. Over the last two years I've bought or traded into numerous lower grade specimens of cards that have made the 'investor' list, and I am interested in obtaining more of them, provided they are available at my price points.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Yes...a highly possible scenario.

Agreed. There is nobody on this planet that can convince me that these recent and ridiculous prices on high profile rookies is where the market truly is, and that the prices are spot on. Something is going on, big time. If not, where have they been in the last 25 years? We are seeing prices that don't even make sense to people that have been in the hobby for 25 years plus...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Agreed. There is nobody on this planet that can convince me that these recent and ridiculous prices on high profile rookies is where the market truly is, and that the prices are spot on. Something is going on, big time. If not, where have they been in the last 25 years? We are seeing prices that don't even make sense to people that have been in the hobby for 25 years plus...

I guess, but you (as a net54 community) cant criticize the craziness but when sell your own cards cite the prior sales to support your high price...you cant have it both ways..... i talking generally not directly the the person quoted.

[scotgreb]

If you listen you can hear it
It's the laughter in the street
It's the motion in the music
And the fire beneath your feet
All the signs are right this time
You don't have to try so very hard
If you live in this world
You're feelin' the change of the guard

All the cowboys and your neighbors
Can you swallow up your pride
Take your guns off it you're willin'
And you know we're on your side
If you want to get through the years
It's high time you played your card
If you live in this world
You're feelin' the change of the guard

[Rookiemonster]

You know how I found net54 ? I would google things about cards. I noticed that
I could find some answers here. So after a while decided to sign up.

so if someone was new to the hobby wouldn't they Google things about it?
So where are they ? They must be a few that are members on net54 .
If they wanted more info and to see pics of examples they would find it here.

Where are these "investors" or "new collectors "?chime in if you fit the
In to one of those.

[Beastmode]

This most recent activity has me looking to stay in front of the herd. If this is a real demand, we'll see Football, Basketball, and (gulp..) Hockey HOF's trending upwards.

I still haven't bought from these sports, but it's looking awfully compelling now, and who wouldn't want to own a Jerry West or Walter Payton Rookie card.

[Republicaninmass]

I'm betting there is 3-5 players

[Bradyhill]

Maybe I am wrong, however all of this makes me chuckle. Everybody is trying to solve some master puzzle if this is a bubble or not. Who cares? To me this is simple...

I say people should buy cards and have fun with what you are doing and if you are not comfortable with the price then don't buy it.

Carry on...

[cardcountry]

Originally Posted by Bradyhill

Maybe I am wrong, however all of this makes me chuckle. Everybody is trying to solve some master puzzle if this is a bubble or not. Who cares? To me this is simple...

I say people should buy cards and have fun with what you are doing and if you are not comfortable with the price then don't buy it.

Carry on...

Well said Brady!!

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Bradyhill

Maybe I am wrong, however all of this makes me chuckle. Everybody is trying to solve some master puzzle if this is a bubble or not. Who cares? To me this is simple...

I say people should buy cards and have fun with what you are doing and if you are not comfortable with the price then don't buy it.

Carry on...

+1000.....thank you Brady!

Joe T.