Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[BeanTown]

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

[Joshwesley]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

So who do we buy now? 😎

I'm gonna say this trend keeps moving north into 70's cards

Ozzie smith
Eddie Murray
Etc

[Stonepony]

Originally Posted by Joshwesley

So who do we buy now? 😎

I'm gonna say this trend keeps moving north into 70's cards

Ozzie smith
Eddie Murray
Etc

How about buying cards you enjoy and WANT to collect?

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

How about buying cards you enjoy and WANT to collect?

that's my plan. I am out of the market for high end cards anyway so I have been focusing on Braves I can afford and HOF'ers of my childhood (late 70's and 80's) as well as some pre-war guys I really liked. It makes it sustainable and affordable while still getting nice cards.

Not to mention you can get really good deals on raw rookies these days. I got a Tony Gwynn for $12 that would probably grade 8 or above as it's perfectly centered and has no apparent flaws to the eye. Graded? I probably couldn't afford it!

[Joshwesley]

That cards I "want" to collect are high dollar..

I certainly can't go out and compete with the guys paying crazy dollars right now..nor would I... Even if I could (I think)?

I would rather have a handful of really nice investment type cards than boxes of average/low value stuff.


Just my preference... Everyone should collect as they see fit.. That's the fun of it!

[sushihotwings]

As long as they are many who are concerned about this being a bubble getting ready to pop, then there is still more upside. This is called climbing the "wall of worry". We won't reach a top until most of the skeptics have given up being skeptical

[aloondilana]

What's Peter Spaeth's take on Brent's post.
Peter you live on this site, I know you've read Brent's post at least half dozen times. Why are you so quiet?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by sushihotwings

As long as they are many who are concerned about this being a bubble getting ready to pop, then there is still more upside. This is called climbing the "wall of worry". We won't reach a top until most of the skeptics have given up being skeptical

Great post.

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on optimism, and die on euphoria."

Sir John Templeton

It certainly doesn't feel euphoric like the message board activity surrounding unopened did. No shortage of skeptics that's for sure.

[cincyredlegs]

Personally for me, we are in a SAD state of the hobby. I believe a big % of the people who have cards are truly collectors. People that love the hobby. You get a small % who want to capitalize and make money and drive the prices through the roof.

You just have to many people that are more worried about the numerical grade than just a nice looking card. I am with Adam, if I had any of "high graded" cards, I would be cashing out and finding the nicest card in 2-3 grades lower.

Somebody is going to get killed when the bubble bursts. Unlike Brent, I do believe it is a bubble. I know I won't get stuck holding the bag.

Here, here to the vg/ex card......centered with no creases. Maybe a tobacco card stain on the back.

Mark

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

Now you have the idea! There are far too many '50's and '60's Topps cards for the market in low to middle grade to keep going up--at best, drawing a comparison to coins, the market will be cyclical for such items. There are also a lot of far more rare and even more significant cards from the 1910's, '20's, 30's and '40's than Clemente or Rose rookies in "8" or better, which are quiet right now. Not wanting to offend, but I certainly hope that no one on the board thinks that either of the above two rank right near the top of the all time best at their positions (Clemente is 6th in JAWS, and far behind those ahead of him, including Ruth, Aaron, Musial, Ott and Frank Robinson; Rose is 5th, but substantially behind those ahead of him also)--should you believe that, take the time to go to baseballreference.com and view where such players stand according to JAWS (based on both peak and career wins above replacement), or Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (in most cases, the two agree quite nicely).

Take a tip from John J. Pittman, who bought rare and significant coins during quiet times for the items he sought in the market, rather than what is supernova "hot" at the moment--demand almost always comes around to what is truly rare and significant, with value appreciation tending upwards in a very nearly linear, rather than cyclical fashion. Pittman focused on such items, never able to afford the true "trophy coins" like the 1913 Liberty Head nickel, 1894 S dime, 1804 silver dollar, etc., etc., and over five decades, put together a collection which was auctioned for nearly $40 million.

I also don't think so-called "condition rarities" in cards will parallel what those in coins have done when the subject is those from the '50's and '60's. There are just too many (THOUSANDS) slightly lower grade cards to drain off demand among true collectors, and the latter are what matter in the long run, not the 10-30 investors Brent speaks of. Buyers who are purely investors tend to leave the field after a relatively short period of time, during which they DO exert significant influence upon the market, while collectors form the real lasting demand. Once the investors have moved on to other areas, however, the prices of even higher grade superstars from the '50's and '60's will fall to the level of the true, long-term collector market for such items. Inflated values for the lower grade examples, however, will lead the downward correction--use your head: if there's several thousand examples of any card in low grade, paying five figures for one simply does not make sense!

Best of luck in your collecting,

Larry