Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[begsu1013]

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[PowderedH2O]

I am like Steve D. I can't afford to play. But, I can still afford most cards in Vg or Vg-Ex. I can deal with that.

[Republicaninmass]

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1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

You'd know best, as you are shipping them.

[packs]

I can't imagine collecting can possibly be fun for anyone who thinks like this.

[Rookiemonster]

The up swing in prices has happened in all grades. So unless someone has a print run on all the key rookies. We don't know how many can be out in the world.

The rising prices are not only found in the card collecting hobby. So maybe it's that darn tv again. Shows like American pickers,pawn stars, antique roadshow has put collecting and flipping in the public eye like never before.

Outlets like eBay , Amazon , comc, have made it easy to buy sell and flip.we can do it all from our phones at any time of the day.

When I talk to adults my age(34)and tell them I collect cards. They all have found memory's of collecting when they were young. And ask questions about the hobbie. So that allows me to believe that others are just jumping back in.

[doug.goodman]

I'm happy for the people who make a killing when selling their plastic cases that also happen that contain opinions and cards (in that order of importance).

And, I get a big grin on my face when the buyer loses a bunch of money trying to get a return on their "investment", oh wait, that doesn't actually happen, because they have a better chance of cracking and resubmitting for an even better opinion, and then THEY become the ones making a killing.

Good for them. Everybody wins.

Happy collecting,
Doug Goodman

[perezfan]

Wow.... very insightful indeed!

Here is another post from 3 years back that was pretty spot-on....

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

I'm happy for the people who make a killing when selling their plastic cases that also happen that contain opinions and cards (in that order of importance).

And, I get a big grin on my face when the buyer loses a bunch of money trying to get a return on their "investment", oh wait, that doesn't actually happen, because they have a better chance of cracking and resubmitting for an even better opinion, and then THEY become the ones making a killing.

Good for them. Everybody wins.

Happy collecting,
Doug Goodman

If you read the OP, it is so sad that this a-hole cares only about money. No love of the game or reverence for the cards themselves. Just dollar signs and profits made by any means possible. Thankfully, his insatiable greed has now put his status as a "free man" in jeopardy. But very sad that he was given the power to help ruin the hobby and subsequently cast doubt upon all of our collections.

Great job Jason, reviving this post!

[BeanTown]

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

[Joshwesley]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

So who do we buy now? 😎

I'm gonna say this trend keeps moving north into 70's cards

Ozzie smith
Eddie Murray
Etc

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

Now you have the idea! There are far too many '50's and '60's Topps cards for the market in low to middle grade to keep going up--at best, drawing a comparison to coins, the market will be cyclical for such items. There are also a lot of far more rare and even more significant cards from the 1910's, '20's, 30's and '40's than Clemente or Rose rookies in "8" or better, which are quiet right now. Not wanting to offend, but I certainly hope that no one on the board thinks that either of the above two rank right near the top of the all time best at their positions (Clemente is 6th in JAWS, and far behind those ahead of him, including Ruth, Aaron, Musial, Ott and Frank Robinson; Rose is 5th, but substantially behind those ahead of him also)--should you believe that, take the time to go to baseballreference.com and view where such players stand according to JAWS (based on both peak and career wins above replacement), or Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (in most cases, the two agree quite nicely).

Take a tip from John J. Pittman, who bought rare and significant coins during quiet times for the items he sought in the market, rather than what is supernova "hot" at the moment--demand almost always comes around to what is truly rare and significant, with value appreciation tending upwards in a very nearly linear, rather than cyclical fashion. Pittman focused on such items, never able to afford the true "trophy coins" like the 1913 Liberty Head nickel, 1894 S dime, 1804 silver dollar, etc., etc., and over five decades, put together a collection which was auctioned for nearly $40 million.

I also don't think so-called "condition rarities" in cards will parallel what those in coins have done when the subject is those from the '50's and '60's. There are just too many (THOUSANDS) slightly lower grade cards to drain off demand among true collectors, and the latter are what matter in the long run, not the 10-30 investors Brent speaks of. Buyers who are purely investors tend to leave the field after a relatively short period of time, during which they DO exert significant influence upon the market, while collectors form the real lasting demand. Once the investors have moved on to other areas, however, the prices of even higher grade superstars from the '50's and '60's will fall to the level of the true, long-term collector market for such items. Inflated values for the lower grade examples, however, will lead the downward correction--use your head: if there's several thousand examples of any card in low grade, paying five figures for one simply does not make sense!

Best of luck in your collecting,

Larry

[birdman42]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

will only be a matter of time before the first piranha bites and this thread gets turned into a stake burning.

I'm more of a minnow than a piranha, and I can't find my lighter right now, but I think my experience is relevant here.

Brent, you bring up the examples of coins and fine art. I was active in the rare coin market for about 10 years, from the late 1970s to the late 80s, mostly on the dealer side, so I had a front-row seat for the commodification of coins--both rare and not-so-rare. There were a number of factors behind the change in the marketplace:

• Inflation and interest rates were relatively high, so cash investments were getting hammered. This led to a flight to value, especially precious metals.
• For a short period individuals were allowed to put non-cash items into their IRAs, increasing the demand.
• Several very high-profile collections came on the market that caught the public's attention (Garrett, Eliasberg, Jerry Buss, etc.).

Back in the boom days of the coin market, early- to mid-80s, the poster child for all the craziness was proof 3-cent nickels (look it up). Original mintage numbers for each date are fairly high (500 to a few thousand each year), so these are not what you'd call rare, or even particularly scarce. Within about 6 months the active trading price of these coins went from around $2,500 up to $8,000 or more. I had several of these pass through my hands. Not a one went to a long-time collector. Some went from hand to hand, while others went to people looking to protect their money. Current value, 30 years on? A nice clean MS-63 1878 proof (a proof-only date) sold not that long ago for a bit under $2,000.

Yes, this is an isolated example. It was part of a years-long trend, though, that brought many people into the market for the first time. This influx can be a good thing, but if those new people are the "Ooh! Shiny!" folk, then they're not going to last long or provide long-term price support. Some of them will get hooked by the allure of the product and stay around, but soon enough most will move on to the next thing. And yes, you do still see record prices set. But that's for the rarest of the rare, and Mantles don't qualify there. As a whole, the high end coin market turned out to be a lousy investment.

Where I see the similarity is that, at the time, even the sophisticated coin dealers completely bought into the idea that the trend would continue. For lots of reasons that's natural; if you don't believe in your product or the market, maybe you should be doing something else. I'm not saying that baseball cards are tulip bulbs, but I believe, based on what I've seen, that at some point the music will stop.