Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[BeanTown]

When the well is dry, they will be turning to other wells. It's a process with collectors/investors as they will look for even more rare cards to buy and instead of buying an 8 they will buy a 5 of a card that has less than ten known or it's the highest grade for that issue.

I think chances are very good that if one of the collectors/investors gets out of the hobby, that there will be two or three ore people to replace them. There are 7000 people dying each day in America and 11,000 are being born. We are adding 4000 people a day to our Country and that's not counting people coming here to live from other Countries. So, chances are really good we will continue too see growth in the hobby.

PWCC has done a great job in keeping the auction format alive on EBay which we all miss from a decade ago. Leon, Bill, and Elliot have done a great job running the board (at different times) for almost 20 years. This provides education for all collectors young and old, which is key for the growth!

[Steve D]

All I know is that if this is not a "bubble", then I am done. I'm in my early 50s, and simply can not compete monetarily with these "investors". Heck, with the prices I'm seeing, I can't even hope to obtain a PSA 5 Clemente RC, or a PSA 7 Reggie Jackson

The hobby I've known for 40+ years is history


Steve

[begsu1013]

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[PowderedH2O]

I am like Steve D. I can't afford to play. But, I can still afford most cards in Vg or Vg-Ex. I can deal with that.

[Republicaninmass]

.
1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

You'd know best, as you are shipping them.

[packs]

I can't imagine collecting can possibly be fun for anyone who thinks like this.

[Rookiemonster]

The up swing in prices has happened in all grades. So unless someone has a print run on all the key rookies. We don't know how many can be out in the world.

The rising prices are not only found in the card collecting hobby. So maybe it's that darn tv again. Shows like American pickers,pawn stars, antique roadshow has put collecting and flipping in the public eye like never before.

Outlets like eBay , Amazon , comc, have made it easy to buy sell and flip.we can do it all from our phones at any time of the day.

When I talk to adults my age(34)and tell them I collect cards. They all have found memory's of collecting when they were young. And ask questions about the hobbie. So that allows me to believe that others are just jumping back in.

[birdman42]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

will only be a matter of time before the first piranha bites and this thread gets turned into a stake burning.

I'm more of a minnow than a piranha, and I can't find my lighter right now, but I think my experience is relevant here.

Brent, you bring up the examples of coins and fine art. I was active in the rare coin market for about 10 years, from the late 1970s to the late 80s, mostly on the dealer side, so I had a front-row seat for the commodification of coins--both rare and not-so-rare. There were a number of factors behind the change in the marketplace:

• Inflation and interest rates were relatively high, so cash investments were getting hammered. This led to a flight to value, especially precious metals.
• For a short period individuals were allowed to put non-cash items into their IRAs, increasing the demand.
• Several very high-profile collections came on the market that caught the public's attention (Garrett, Eliasberg, Jerry Buss, etc.).

Back in the boom days of the coin market, early- to mid-80s, the poster child for all the craziness was proof 3-cent nickels (look it up). Original mintage numbers for each date are fairly high (500 to a few thousand each year), so these are not what you'd call rare, or even particularly scarce. Within about 6 months the active trading price of these coins went from around $2,500 up to $8,000 or more. I had several of these pass through my hands. Not a one went to a long-time collector. Some went from hand to hand, while others went to people looking to protect their money. Current value, 30 years on? A nice clean MS-63 1878 proof (a proof-only date) sold not that long ago for a bit under $2,000.

Yes, this is an isolated example. It was part of a years-long trend, though, that brought many people into the market for the first time. This influx can be a good thing, but if those new people are the "Ooh! Shiny!" folk, then they're not going to last long or provide long-term price support. Some of them will get hooked by the allure of the product and stay around, but soon enough most will move on to the next thing. And yes, you do still see record prices set. But that's for the rarest of the rare, and Mantles don't qualify there. As a whole, the high end coin market turned out to be a lousy investment.

Where I see the similarity is that, at the time, even the sophisticated coin dealers completely bought into the idea that the trend would continue. For lots of reasons that's natural; if you don't believe in your product or the market, maybe you should be doing something else. I'm not saying that baseball cards are tulip bulbs, but I believe, based on what I've seen, that at some point the music will stop.