OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[vintagetoppsguy]

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David

Originally Posted by the 'stache

No.

I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended.

But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics.

He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better.

There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency.

I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him.

You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014?

371

Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however.

What about 40 home run seasons?

There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs.

But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career.

Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote!

Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way.

I just don't see him in Cooperstown.

Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.

[pbspelly]

The last two posts are, in my opinion, the clearest (and most civilized) articulations of the two sides of the Adam Dunn HOF issue that I've read so far. We ought to just erase all the other posts--including my many longwinded and argumentative comments--and close the thread, agreeing that there are differences of opinion over Adam Dunn's value and what truly makes someone HOF-worthy.

[the 'stache]

No problem, David.

Regarding Nolan Ryan, I don't put a lot of weight in his win-loss record. He played for so many bad teams. I'd be willing to bet he was on more losing teams than winning ones. Maybe I'll look at that later tonight. But some of the best pitchers today, like Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw, only have a few 20 win seasons between them, and that's not because of anything they've done. A great pitcher can win fewer games than a good pitcher if that good pitcher has a great defense, and a really potent offense behind them. In 1987, Nolan Ryan led the National League with a 2.87 ERA, in strikeouts, in Fip, in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, in K:BB ratio, and ERA +. But he was 8-16. Those numbers don't reconcile in my brain.

Ryan has more strikeouts, and more no hitters than anybody in history, and really, there's nobody close to either figure. He has an 839 strikeout lead, and the guy he leads is retired. And the nearest active strikeout pitcher is more than 3,300 strikeouts behind Ryan. And while Dunn didn't lead in any major category, Ryan led his league in strikeouts 11 times, and ERA twice. He holds the single season strikeout record, too, with 383. And he never won a Cy Young, but he finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting six times.

Also, his 6.6 hits per 9 innings pitched is the best ever. And he did that while pitching 5,386 innings.

I don't know what Adam Dunn would have to do to get in. I don't think there's anything he can do. Even if he hit 600 home runs, I don't think he gets in. He's playing in an era where home runs are plentiful. His one claim to fame is home runs, but he's never been the best at it. Every year, there was at least one guy better than him. He finished second in the league in home runs three times. Third once. Fourth twice. Fifth twice. So again, he was pretty good, but never the best. If he were a big time run producer, that might be a little easier to overlook. But he's not even that great an RBI guy. He's hit 462 homers, and driven in 1,162 runs. He's driven in 700 other base runners besides himself.

If you look at the first two 500 home run guys he'll meet if he gets to 500, here's how they'll match up RBI-wise.

Adam Dunn 462 home runs, 1,162* RBI
Eddie Murray 504 home runs, 1,917 RBI
Gary Sheffield 509 home runs, 1,676 RBI

Say Dunn plays one more year, hits 38 home runs, and drives in 100 RBI. He's at 1,262. He's 414 RBI behind Sheffield, and 655 behind Murray.

Dunn's best RBI seasons are as follows:
106 RBI 2007
105 RBI 2009
103 RBI 2010
102 RBI 2004
101 RBI 2005
100 RBI 2008

Why are his RBI totals so low? Adam Dunn is a career .225 hitter with runners in scoring position. He is a .229 career hitter in high leverage situations. He is a career .237 hitter in medium leverage situations, and a .242 career hitter in low leverage situations. You want your power hitters to perform well in high leverage situations.

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm more in the Bill James camp on Nolan Ryan -- he ranks him the 24th best pitcher of all time, considerably lower than most of the public -- but even so there is no meaningful analogy between Ryan and Dunn.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm more in the Bill James camp on Nolan Ryan -- he ranks him the 24th best pitcher of all time, considerably lower than most of the public -- but even so there is no meaningful analogy between Ryan and Dunn.

I didn't mean for it to be an anology between Ryan and Dunn. My comments meant to show that you don't have to have all the titles that everyone keeps referring to (Silver Slugger, MVP, Golded Glove, Cy Young or whatever) to be a HOFer. There are plenty of guys in the HOF w/o any of those awards. Ryan was just one example.

[glynparson]

HE deserves to be mentioned in a display or film, maybe have one of his bats in an exhibit, but he does not deserve induction. I would feel this way even if he reaches 600 HR's.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I didn't mean for it to be an anology between Ryan and Dunn. My comments meant to show that you don't have to have all the titles that everyone keeps referring to (Silver Slugger, MVP, Golded Glove, Cy Young or whatever) to be a HOFer. There are plenty of guys in the HOF w/o any of those awards. Ryan was just one example.

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

[bn2cardz]

The only help Dunn was to his team was hitting home runs, 28.50% of his hits were home runs.

Comparison to the top 10 home run hitters:

Bonds: 25.96%
Aaron: 20.02%
Ruth: 24.85%
Mays: 20.10%
A.Rodriguez: 22.25%
Griffey: 22.65%
Thome: 26.29%
Sosa: 25.29%
F.Robinson: 19.91%
McGwire: 35.85%

McGwire is the only player with a higher percentage of HR/Hit than Dunn on that list. Yet McGwire was able to do it while having a BA of .263 compared to Dunn's BA of .238 (this includes a horrible .159 in 2011).

Dunn did nothing to help in the field, Rpos -109 and his Batting just wasn't enough (Rbat= 218 [with a -27 in 2011, and only 10 seasons with 10 or more runs above average from batting). His horrible fielding combined with his mediocre batting put him -80 RAA, that is runs below the average player in his career. He also has a negative WAA replacement number at -9.2. There were 9 seasons were he was in the negative for RAA, and only one full season where he was above 10 (2004 with 27).

If a player is providing less runs for his team for most of his career rather than adding them he really shouldn't be in the HOF. He just happened to hit the ball a long distance when he happened to make contact, but he rarely made contact.