OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

[glchen]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

... As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. ...

I figured Ryan's mentality would have been: "you can't hit my stuff, I'm just going to blow a heater past you."

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

Not sure where you deduced anything other than "lots of BBs", unless it was from reading the stats in MLB Ref.

[Bored5000]

The Adam Dunn-Nolan Ryan comparison just seems ridiculious, IMO. Even if Ryan's win total is completely discounted, he far and away struck out more batters than any man in the history of the game and threw three more no hitters than anyone else in the history.

On the four "Hall of Fame Statistics" metrics on baseball-reference.com, Ryan easily qualifies in all four metrics on what is a Hall of Famer. Adam Dunn does not make the threshold for what constitutes a Hall of Famers in any of the four metrics. Even more damning, the best Dunn ranks on any of the four metrics is 257th all-time. That is a Hall of Famer?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

The Adam Dunn-Nolan Ryan comparison just seems ridiculious, IMO.

Let me say it one more time for those that have a problem understanding my point. It was not a Dunn-Ryan comparison. It was meant to show that one doesn't have to win certain awards to be inducted into the HOF. Earlier in the thread, several people mentioned that Dunn never won a MVP, etc., and therefore that was one of the reasons that he wouldn't be considered for the HOF. Ryan was mentioned (I could have used several other players to make my point, he just came to mind first) because he too never won an individual award (e.g. Cy Young), but it didn't keep him from the HOF.

My whole point is that one doesn't have to win a GG, SS, MVP, Cy Young, ROY, etc, to make the HOF. I simply made my point with Ryan, again it could have been one of many other players instead. If you still don't get my point, then maybe it's my fault. Maybe I'm not explaining it well.

[Centauri]

Close in awards also matters. Ryan was top ten in Cy Young voting 8 times, top 20 in MVP voting 3 times. Dunn's best is a #21 finish in the MVP vote. IT is a terrible comparison. Ryan is a true all-time great, even among the HOF guys he is way up there. Dunn is just a guy - a good player, earning a good living playing baseball, soon to be forgotten.

[nolemmings]

It isn't about not winning an MVP. It's about not ever even being close to being an MVP. How can you claim to be a prominent player in your league if you never lead that league in any meaningful stat and you are not deemed to even make the top 20 in MVP?

Ryan finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting 6 times, and twice more in the top 10. He led the league in strikeouts --the meaningful kind where you throw the ball and not swing and miss-- 11 times and in ERA twice. Dunn?

Edited to add: I'm slow on the switch, that'll teach me to answer the phone!

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Let me say it one more time for those that have a problem understanding my point. It was not a Dunn-Ryan comparison. It was meant to show that one doesn't have to win certain awards to be inducted into the HOF. Earlier in the thread, several people mentioned that Dunn never won a MVP, etc., and therefore that was one of the reasons that he wouldn't be considered for the HOF. Ryan was mentioned (I could have used several other players to make my point, he just came to mind first) because he too never won an individual award (e.g. Cy Young), but it didn't keep him from the HOF.

My whole point is that one doesn't have to win a GG, SS, MVP, Cy Young, ROY, etc, to make the HOF. I simply made my point with Ryan, again it could have been one of many other players instead. If you still don't get my point, then maybe it's my fault. Maybe I'm not explaining it well.

David - you have brought up two HOF'ers (Ryan and Ozzie) during a discussion of whether or not Dunn is worthy. If you aren't comparing him to either of these guys, then please find a current HOF'er to actually compare him to. The Adam Dunn total package is lacking. The Nolan Ryan total package is better.

[D. Bergin]

Jeez, if a guy like Jeff Bagwell can't get much more then 50% of the vote, I really can't see Dunn getting the benefit of the doubt, even if he all of a sudden has a historical resurgence and ends up with 700 HR's.

If players like Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Frank Howard, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Dale Murphy can't even come close to sniffing the Hall, then Dunn won't get out of the first year of eligibility.

I remember guys belly-aching on here when Jim Rice got in, and he was the premier power hitter in the AL for nearly a decade.