OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm more in the Bill James camp on Nolan Ryan -- he ranks him the 24th best pitcher of all time, considerably lower than most of the public -- but even so there is no meaningful analogy between Ryan and Dunn.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm more in the Bill James camp on Nolan Ryan -- he ranks him the 24th best pitcher of all time, considerably lower than most of the public -- but even so there is no meaningful analogy between Ryan and Dunn.

I didn't mean for it to be an anology between Ryan and Dunn. My comments meant to show that you don't have to have all the titles that everyone keeps referring to (Silver Slugger, MVP, Golded Glove, Cy Young or whatever) to be a HOFer. There are plenty of guys in the HOF w/o any of those awards. Ryan was just one example.

[glynparson]

HE deserves to be mentioned in a display or film, maybe have one of his bats in an exhibit, but he does not deserve induction. I would feel this way even if he reaches 600 HR's.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I didn't mean for it to be an anology between Ryan and Dunn. My comments meant to show that you don't have to have all the titles that everyone keeps referring to (Silver Slugger, MVP, Golded Glove, Cy Young or whatever) to be a HOFer. There are plenty of guys in the HOF w/o any of those awards. Ryan was just one example.

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

[glchen]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

... As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. ...

I figured Ryan's mentality would have been: "you can't hit my stuff, I'm just going to blow a heater past you."

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

Not sure where you deduced anything other than "lots of BBs", unless it was from reading the stats in MLB Ref.

[Bored5000]

The Adam Dunn-Nolan Ryan comparison just seems ridiculious, IMO. Even if Ryan's win total is completely discounted, he far and away struck out more batters than any man in the history of the game and threw three more no hitters than anyone else in the history.

On the four "Hall of Fame Statistics" metrics on baseball-reference.com, Ryan easily qualifies in all four metrics on what is a Hall of Famer. Adam Dunn does not make the threshold for what constitutes a Hall of Famers in any of the four metrics. Even more damning, the best Dunn ranks on any of the four metrics is 257th all-time. That is a Hall of Famer?

[bn2cardz]

The only help Dunn was to his team was hitting home runs, 28.50% of his hits were home runs.

Comparison to the top 10 home run hitters:

Bonds: 25.96%
Aaron: 20.02%
Ruth: 24.85%
Mays: 20.10%
A.Rodriguez: 22.25%
Griffey: 22.65%
Thome: 26.29%
Sosa: 25.29%
F.Robinson: 19.91%
McGwire: 35.85%

McGwire is the only player with a higher percentage of HR/Hit than Dunn on that list. Yet McGwire was able to do it while having a BA of .263 compared to Dunn's BA of .238 (this includes a horrible .159 in 2011).

Dunn did nothing to help in the field, Rpos -109 and his Batting just wasn't enough (Rbat= 218 [with a -27 in 2011, and only 10 seasons with 10 or more runs above average from batting). His horrible fielding combined with his mediocre batting put him -80 RAA, that is runs below the average player in his career. He also has a negative WAA replacement number at -9.2. There were 9 seasons were he was in the negative for RAA, and only one full season where he was above 10 (2004 with 27).

If a player is providing less runs for his team for most of his career rather than adding them he really shouldn't be in the HOF. He just happened to hit the ball a long distance when he happened to make contact, but he rarely made contact.