Just sad. No, not sad. Pathetic.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

You're right, I had a brain fart. That's still a hell of a lot of bids, and the sentiment is still the same.

I'm not a fan of shilling but if that was a card I wanted I would set a snipe at the number I'm comfortable, and at the same time notify Rick about the activity. He may ban those bidders and you might get the card at a good price. Worst case scenario you pay what your comfortable paying for the card.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by japhi

I'm not a fan of shilling but if that was a card I wanted I would set a snipe at the number I'm comfortable, and at the same time notify Rick about the activity. He may ban those bidders and you might get the card at a good price. Worst case scenario you pay what your comfortable paying for the card.

Hello, Matt. You're pretty new to the board, but there have been several threads over the last couple of years about Probstein's consignors shilling their own auctions. Rick was notified and did absolutely nothing about it. This was back when you could link eBay transactions by the buyer's and seller's feedback, but eBay has since decided to protect the shillers and make it nearly impossible to determine that anymore.

One shiller, Joseph M Pankiewicz, would buy cards on eBay, consign them to Rick and bid on his own cards. This was clearly evident from the bid history. This was all done by username and feedback, but again, eBay has decided they want to protect shillers and that is no longer possible. At the time, it was brought to Rick's attention, he chose to do nothing about it. Last time I looked, he still allows Panky to consign.

[japhi]

Hi David: I'm new but have been reading the board for around a year and have read all those threads. I just can get myself worked up about shilling. That said, I collect mostly hockey HOF rookies - which is why i don't post often-and mostly mid grade so shilling isn't as big an issue as it is in the baseball world.

My style is closer to MattyC's, I don't get too caught up in all the BS that comes with the hobby, it's a chance for me to get away from a very competitive/high paced career that comes with all the BS I can handle.

[Exhibitman]

What do you think of this business plan:

--Buy raw cards with minor flaws
--"Improve" raw cards
--Get them slabbed
--Consign to Probstein
--Shill auctions
--repeat

Did I miss any steps?

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What do you think of this business plan:

--Buy raw cards with minor flaws
--"Improve" raw cards
--Get them slabbed
--Consign to Probstein
--Shill auctions
--repeat

Did I miss any steps?

I think there's a "deny, deflect, or ignore" step in there somewhere.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What do you think of this business plan:

--Buy raw cards with minor flaws
--"Improve" raw cards
--Get them slabbed
--Consign to Probstein
--Shill auctions
--repeat

Did I miss any steps?

You missed the parallel step of buying centered slabbed cards with minor flaws and "improving" them.

[chernieto]

I have gotten good deals on some SGC/PSA graded pre war cards in his auctions & am happy there is someone who does the 99cent auction daily the way he does. I have noticed his consignment rates are perhaps the lowest in the indusry as well.
Shilling indeed sucks.....But I am still trying to deal with Hal Chase being banned for fixing games 100 years ago.
Paul C

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What do you think of this business plan:

--Buy raw cards with minor flaws
--"Improve" raw cards
--Get them slabbed
--Consign to Probstein
--Shill auctions
--repeat

Did I miss any steps?

While we are pointing out missed steps I'd like to highlight that that model doesn't produce any revenue without a buyer willing to pay way over historical values. As long as there are collectors that just have to have a certain card at any price there will be auctions that don't make much sense.

Anyone that has VCP access and is following certain cards know that for every shilled auction, there is some idiot pulling the trigger on a BIN at 30% over the previous sale. Which is why I don't lose any sleep over this - it's impossible for me to pay more than I'm comfortable with a card because I simply don't pay more than I am comfortable for card (or a car, dishwasher or deck reno).

[Harliduck]

[QUOTE=japhi;1270857]
Anyone that has VCP access and is following certain cards know that for every shilled auction, there is some idiot pulling the trigger on a BIN at 30% over the previous sale. QUOTE]

I will take exception to this comment. I have been that "idiot", as I am sure MANY here have been as well. When I knowingly overpay on a BIN, it's because I want/need that card, and at that time, that price is what that card is worth. And if I deem that card is worth that amount, well, than that is an accurate reading on value. ANY card is only worth what someone is willing to pay, not what any VCP or any "guide" is reporting. I often times see these guides oblivious to market realities...I see it in reverse all the time as well, our own B/S/T always has sought after cards under the "VCP" price, advertised as such, and not get a second look. Supply and demand dictate price, and often times the demand for an overpriced BIN is purchased because there is no supply to fuel the demand. Calling that purchaser an "idiot" is ignorant.

[MattyC]

[QUOTE=Harliduck;1270883]

Originally Posted by japhi

Anyone that has VCP access and is following certain cards know that for every shilled auction, there is some idiot pulling the trigger on a BIN at 30% over the previous sale. QUOTE]

I will take exception to this comment. I have been that "idiot", as I am sure MANY here have been as well. When I knowingly overpay on a BIN, it's because I want/need that card, and at that time, that price is what that card is worth. And if I deem that card is worth that amount, well, than that is an accurate reading on value. ANY card is only worth what someone is willing to pay, not what any VCP or any "guide" is reporting. I often times see these guides oblivious to market realities...I see it in reverse all the time as well, our own B/S/T always has sought after cards under the "VCP" price, advertised as such, and not get a second look. Supply and demand dictate price, and often times the demand for an overpriced BIN is purchased because there is no supply to fuel the demand. Calling that purchaser an "idiot" is ignorant.

I could not agree more, Hardi.

I personally think viewing card values exclusively through the prism of numerical grades and VCP grids is myopic. In my opinion, all cards in the same grade are not equal, and so it makes sense that they should not sell for equal values.

If one expects to pay "VCP average" for a card in GRADE X that makes all others in its grade (and some even above) look like dog meat, one is doomed to never have the pleasure of owning that card. The previous sale may have been of an overgraded card with heinous eye appeal.

As you said, a card is "worth" whatever one is willing to pay. There is no set value, ever. Each card has its own attributes, even if the sticker is identical to another sticker. Grades can be identical but cards are not. There are collectors who buy the card, and thus with no two specimens of the same card being identical, the prices-- to collectors with this view-- won't be identical either.

That said, if another collector believes all cards in GRADE X should sell for exactly the same number, to each his own and let every collector be happy.

[japhi]

[QUOTE=Harliduck;1270883]

Originally Posted by japhi

Anyone that has VCP access and is following certain cards know that for every shilled auction, there is some idiot pulling the trigger on a BIN at 30% over the previous sale. QUOTE]

I will take exception to this comment. I have been that "idiot", as I am sure MANY here have been as well. When I knowingly overpay on a BIN, it's because I want/need that card, and at that time, that price is what that card is worth. And if I deem that card is worth that amount, well, than that is an accurate reading on value. ANY card is only worth what someone is willing to pay, not what any VCP or any "guide" is reporting. I often times see these guides oblivious to market realities...I see it in reverse all the time as well, our own B/S/T always has sought after cards under the "VCP" price, advertised as such, and not get a second look. Supply and demand dictate price, and often times the demand for an overpriced BIN is purchased because there is no supply to fuel the demand. Calling that purchaser an "idiot" is ignorant.

Idiot was too strong and I would be labeling myself and idiot then as I've overpaid for a card I like.

My point was collectors pay inflated prices all the time, be it through shilling, BIN's, or just plain ignorance. We've seen lots of threads that show where a buyer pays more for a card from a consignor like PWCC or Probstein than a similar copy available at a lower BIN or an auction that closed a few days earlier that was half the price. As long as the collector is happy with his purchase I don't care if the auction was shilled, a stupid high BIN or an over graded card. Buyer beware and all that.

[atx840]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What do you think of this business plan:

--Buy raw cards with minor flaws
--"Improve" raw cards
--Get them slabbed
--Consign to Probstein
--Shill auctions
--repeat

Did I miss any steps?

--Profit

[nolemmings]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by japhi

Hi David: I'm new but have been reading the board for around a year and have read all those threads. I just can get myself worked up about shilling. That said, I collect mostly hockey HOF rookies - which is why i don't post often-and mostly mid grade so shilling isn't as big an issue as it is in the baseball world.

My style is closer to MattyC's, I don't get too caught up in all the BS that comes with the hobby, it's a chance for me to get away from a very competitive/high paced career that comes with all the BS I can handle.

I agree. The hobby is ideally a source of great enjoyment, an escape from the daily stressors. If one's hobby becomes a source of anger and annoyance, then I think there's a problem. In the end, I think cards are pure and pleasurable. Cards are never snide. They never get petty or envious. They never nag or break balls. They never get fat and out of shape. Human beings, on the other hand...

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by japhi

Hi David: I'm new but have been reading the board for around a year and have read all those threads. I just can get myself worked up about shilling. That said, I collect mostly hockey HOF rookies - which is why i don't post often-and mostly mid grade so shilling isn't as big an issue as it is in the baseball world.

My style is closer to MattyC's, I don't get too caught up in all the BS that comes with the hobby, it's a chance for me to get away from a very competitive/high paced career that comes with all the BS I can handle.

I hate to say it, Matt, but if you are always paying 100% of what you've budgeted for the few baseball cards you do buy, you are participating in the BS that comes with the hobby. You do so through no fault of your own, of course, but you are still part of the viscous cycle.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I hate to say it, Matt, but if you are always paying 100% of what you've budgeted for the few baseball cards you do buy, you are participating in the BS that comes with the hobby. You do so through no fault of your own, of course, but you are still part of the viscous cycle.

Bill that guilt by association is a BS argument. I don't shill and not even sure if I've been shilled.

My point was very simple; I pay what I'm comfortable - and usually less, I only snipe and I do quite a bit of research before sniping. If there is a card I'm chasing that sells for 400 bucks in a good looking PSA 6 than I set my snipe for 400 bucks, usually less. When I win I generally win below the comparable. I lose way more auctions than I win.

Obviously this way of buying won't work on cards that only come up once a year but I don't play in that sandbox.

If you have a strategy for paying less for cards on Ebay I'm all ears.

PS. good discussion, I mostly lurk as I can't add much value to threads, which may in fact be the case with this thread as well!

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by japhi

Bill that guilt by association is a BS argument. I don't shill and not even sure if I've been shilled.

My point was very simple; I pay what I'm comfortable - and usually less, I only snipe and I do quite a bit of research before sniping. If there is a card I'm chasing that sells for 400 bucks in a good looking PSA 6 than I set my snipe for 400 bucks, usually less. When I win I generally win below the comparable. I lose way more auctions than I win.

Obviously this way of buying won't work on cards that only come up once a year but I don't play in that sandbox.

If you have a strategy for paying less for cards on Ebay I'm all ears.

PS. good discussion, I mostly lurk as I can't add much value to threads, which may in fact be the case with this thread as well!

Matt, firstly, I want to make sure that you know I wasn't accusing you of engaging in any nefarious activity. I didn't mean to insinuate that you shill yourself. If I choose my words poorly, I apologize. It's clear to me you're an honest guy, and I can not only appreciate the strategy you employ when bidding in an auction, I've used it myself in the past. It's good common sense. What I do question is the frequency with which we are either hitting that exact ceiling, or coming unnaturally close. I see this more in our niche than I do in the modern card portion of the hobby. This has simply been my observation, so I could be way off.

To borrow your earlier metaphor, I think if one plays in the pre-war and vintage sandbox long enough, eventually we're all going to be exposed to shill bidding, much like if we buy enough cards, graded or not, eventually we're going to get a card that has been slightly trimmed, or altered in some other manner. It's a product of being in a hobby with a lot of money trading hands, and unscrupulous people who want an ever increasing share.

I agree with your comment about this being a good discussion. Ultimately, we may not accomplish anything, but as Leon said, it's important to keep these things visible.

[japhi]

Thanks Bill, I didn't think you were accusing me of anything and wasn't offended at all.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by japhi

I'm not a fan of shilling but if that was a card I wanted I would set a snipe at the number I'm comfortable, and at the same time notify Rick about the activity. He may ban those bidders and you might get the card at a good price. Worst case scenario you pay what your comfortable paying for the card.

This thinking hurts my brain. Let's say you want a card up at auction which you are willing to pay $200 for -- and you put in such a snipe. A shill bidder puts in a bid at $199 with the next lowest bid at $50. So you end up getting the card at $200 and you're supposed to be happy? When you were just ripped off $149? Really?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by calvindog

This thinking hurts my brain. Let's say you want a card up at auction which you are willing to pay $200 for -- and you put in such a snipe. A shill bidder puts in a bid at $199 with the next lowest bid at $50. So you end up getting the card at $200 and you're supposed to be happy? When you were just ripped off $149? Really?

Open to any solutions you have that can save me money buying on Ebay. If you have ways I can pay $150 for a card that typically sells for $200 I'm all ears.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by japhi

Open to any solutions you have that can save me money buying on Ebay. If you have ways I can pay $150 for a card that typically sells for $200 I'm all ears.

It typically sells for $200 because it's shilled every time. Ever think that maybe your valuations are skewered because of fraud? As for a solution to get fair market value, the crooked ebay sellers with the miraculously fortuitous under bidders who never win an auction but whose bids are 95% with the sellers need to be removed. I've represented some eBay sellers who have been kicked off despite high sales. It does happen.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by calvindog

It typically sells for $200 because it's shilled every time. Ever think that maybe your valuations are skewered because of fraud? As for a solution to get fair market value, the crooked ebay sellers with the miraculously fortuitous under bidders who never win an auction but whose bids are 95% with the sellers need to be removed. I've represented some eBay sellers who have been kicked off despite high sales. It does happen.

The cards I follow seem to always find the market range, and I don't believe every auction is shilled. Here is a card I'm following/chasing, a c55 Vezina:

3/2/14 eBay Listing | Image rcdevil s***s Best Offer $5,200.00
6/12/13 eBay Image prewarcardcollector l***v 35 $4,901.00
1/31/12 eBay Image exchefy1 t***i Best Offer $7,000.00
1/27/12 Mile High Image 12 $5,483.52
5/2/10 REA Image 21 $5,287.50
10/14/07 eBay Image jtn2000 gomaz 24 $5,801.00
8/31/07 Mastro 29 $5,251.20

There is a pretty defined market value for this card; BIN or Auction, Ebay or AH, this is a $5200 card. Did shilling set an inflated price? Possibly, but today I'm going to have to pop around 5200 bucks to buy this card, shill or no shill.

We are in complete agreement that bid retractors are losers and Ebay should manage to it. I spend a shit ton on Ebay and never have retracted a bid, and have only returned 1 card in the last 5 years.

[buymycards]

Here is another view of how prices may be affected by bidders. (I think this was discussed in a thread several years ago.) Let's say that I paid $5k for a certain card in a certain grade and the VCP average supports that price. Now I see a similar card on ebay and it is a few hours from closing and the price is $2k. So, I am thinking, I can't let this card go for $2k because that will bring the VCP average down and my card will be "worth" less, so I keep bidding it up to protect the value of my original card.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by buymycards

Here is another view of how prices may be affected by bidders. (I think this was discussed in a thread several years ago.) Let's say that I paid $5k for a certain card in a certain grade and the VCP average supports that price. Now I see a similar card on ebay and it is a few hours from closing and the price is $2k. So, I am thinking, I can't let this card go for $2k because that will bring the VCP average down and my card will be "worth" less, so I keep bidding it up to protect the value of my original card.

I understand what you're saying, but it's just hard to imagine someone doing that. Let's say when you paid $5K for that card, you were in a bidding war with one other bidder and it drive the price to $5K, but you won the card. Now another card of the same kind and grade is on eBay with a high bid of $2K. Well, this time there is no bidding war to drive the price up. I can't see you bidding on the card at that point, just to keep the VCP average up. What if you ended up winning the card for say $2200 because nobody outbid you? Now you have two cards, one you paid $5K for, the other you paid $2200 for, and it still lowers the VCP average to $3600.

I just can't see someone throwing up a bid on a card to keep the VCP price up knowing that they could possibly "win" the card.