2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Topps206

One is known for being a catcher, the other for being a first baseman. Mauer compares more favorably to Hall of Fame catchers based on JAWS than Mattingly does among Hall of Fame first basemen.

I’d put Hernandez above Mattingly, actually.


Now, if Mauer spent his whole career at first base, it’d be hard to think he measures up, but different positions have different standards.

True, excellent point with the catcher/1st base issue, BUT you are missing one major point - Mattingly was arguably considered baseball’s BEST player for a 4-5 year period. This certainly needs to be configured into the equation. Regarding Hernandez, he was great, but Mattingly was a far superior hitter during his peak years….not even close. Like Mauer, Hernandez falls way short on his power numbers versus Mattingly.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

True, excellent point with the catcher/1st base issue, BUT you are missing one major point - Mattingly was arguably considered baseball’s BEST player for a 4-5 year period. This certainly needs to be configured into the equation. Regarding Hernandez, he was great, but Mattingly was a far superior hitter during his peak years….not even close. Like Mauer, Hernandez falls way short on his power numbers versus Mattingly.

The problem with Mattingly was how much he fell off after his injury, and his peak was great, but not so great that he won a bunch of MVPs or black ink before falling off.

Hernandez might not have had the power, but he won a record 11 Gold Gloves at the position, more than the nine Mattingly won.

Accolades, black ink, outstanding peak, great career all matter to me, as does how somebody compares to others at their position in Cooperstown.

All three have MVPs, Hernandez and Mattingly both runners-up, though Hernandez had three top 10 finishes after turning 30, and finished fourth in helping the Mets win that 1986 World Series. I don’t judge too much off of rings, but if postseason success matters, then Hernandez was a key contributor on championship teams for two different organizations.

If you count JAWS, Hernandez is 21st all time among first basemen.

60.3 career WAR | 41.2 7yr-peak WAR | 50.8 JAWS | 4.7 WAR/162
Average HOF 1B (out of 24):
65.0 career WAR | 41.8 7yr-peak WAR | 53.4 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162

Meanwhile, Mattingly is 39th all time among first basemen.

42.4 career WAR | 35.7 7yr-peak WAR | 39.1 JAWS | 3.8 WAR/162
Average HOF 1B (out of 24):
65.0 career WAR | 41.8 7yr-peak WAR | 53.4 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162

Mauer, meanwhile, may not have been a slugger, but three batting titles and an MVP as a catcher is impressive, as holding a record three batting titles at the position is greatness.

[packs]

Advanced stats love Hernandez but I don't see any meaningful argument that if you were considering peaks, his was better than Mattingly's. Mattingly was the best player in baseball, a proto Albert Pujols. No one has ever said that about Keith Hernandez.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

Advanced stats love Hernandez but I don't see any meaningful argument that if you were considering peaks, his was better than Mattingly's. Mattingly was the best player in baseball, a proto Albert Pujols. No one has ever said that about Keith Hernandez.

I don't think anyone is saying Mattingly didn't have some better years than Hernandez at his very peak. The issue is Mattingly only had 3 amazing years (1984-86), 3 good years (1987-89), and then not much.

Hernandez had 3 amazing years, 2 great years, 4 good years, and a few decent years. Remember, Hernandez had 3 top 5 MVP finishes (including his win), and got MVP votes 6 other times.

It doesn't hurt that Hernandez was a key player on World Series winning teams in two different cities. Mattingly played on some great Yankees teams, but played in a single playoff series (which he played great in, but they lost).

Growing up in the NY suburbs, I loved Mattingly. I still remember the day I got his Rookie Card when I was 8 years old--my first big baseball card purchase (not a great investment). I didn't see Hernandez's best days. But its hard not to see Hernandez' value.

[triwak]

Because every thread needs cards. Congrats to the Class of 2024!

[packs]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I don't think anyone is saying Mattingly didn't have some better years than Hernandez at his very peak. The issue is Mattingly only had 3 amazing years (1984-86), 3 good years (1987-89), and then not much.

Hernandez had 3 amazing years, 2 great years, 4 good years, and a few decent years. Remember, Hernandez had 3 top 5 MVP finishes (including his win), and got MVP votes 6 other times.

It doesn't hurt that Hernandez was a key player on World Series winning teams in two different cities. Mattingly played on some great Yankees teams, but played in a single playoff series (which he played great in, but they lost).

I think that actually makes Hernandez look worse, not better. Even with better health and more productive seasons his career numbers are pretty much the same or less than a hobbled Mattingly.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

I think that actually makes Hernandez look worse, not better. Even with better health and more productive seasons his career numbers are pretty much the same or less than a hobbled Mattingly.

I think they both get in one day, with Mattingly getting in first.

Of the short peak guys of the 80's--Murphy, Mattingly, Gooden, Hershiser, Saberhagen, Dave Stieb, etc. I'd put Murphy and Hershiser in first.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I don't think anyone is saying Mattingly didn't have some better years than Hernandez at his very peak. The issue is Mattingly only had 3 amazing years (1984-86), 3 good years (1987-89), and then not much.

Hernandez had 3 amazing years, 2 great years, 4 good years, and a few decent years. Remember, Hernandez had 3 top 5 MVP finishes (including his win), and got MVP votes 6 other times.

It doesn't hurt that Hernandez was a key player on World Series winning teams in two different cities. Mattingly played on some great Yankees teams, but played in a single playoff series (which he played great in, but they lost).

Growing up in the NY suburbs, I loved Mattingly. I still remember the day I got his Rookie Card when I was 8 years old--my first big baseball card purchase (not a great investment). I didn't see Hernandez's best days. But its hard not to see Hernandez' value.

As a point of reference on your championship comparison for Mattingly vs. Hernandez, Mattingly was consistently a victim of being part of great run producing teams with mediocre pitching at best. Both the Cardinals & Mets boasted strong to outstanding pitching staffs for Hernandez’s two championships. No solid pitching….no championships. FYI, I totally respected Hernandez and think both him and Mattingly merit a closer look at joining the HOF. It’s certainly not a “hands down” decision, but the argument can be made for either side (especially considering some of the “suspect” choices being made over the years).

Regarding the Clemens, Bonds, Alex Rodriguez HOF issue, it may boil down to were these players HOF caliber BEFORE they subjected themselves to PEDS. The answer to that question is YES. However, are we now in a baseball environment whereby any player who is safely assumed to have participated in taking steroids to elevate their performance automatically banned from Cooperstown? Don’t know if there is a definitive answer to that question. I will say this….I find it very troubling that baseball’s all time hit, home run and Cy Young Award kings are all excluded from Cooperstown. It truly places a black mark on the game. I am an avid pitching coach in my spare time, and can promise you that so many aspiring young ball players partake in some form of performance enhancing drugs (illegal or legal) because there is simply too much money at stake. Whether it is jockeying for position to achieve a potential MLB high draft pick slot or besting their peers for a college scholarship, PEDs are widespread at some particular level. When does it end? It won’t because the almighty dollar rules most people’s lives. Sad to say, this is where our National Pastime is at.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Hernandez had 3 amazing years, 2 great years, 4 good years, and a few decent years. Remember, Hernandez had 3 top 5 MVP finishes (including his win), and got MVP votes 6 other times.

Which years are you calling "amazing" for Hernandez? Or "great"?

So 5 seasons that were great or better?

If you rank them in order by slugging, Hernandez's 5th best was .449. Is that great? His 5th best season in homers was 13. His 5th best season in hits was 171. By WAR, his 5th best season was 5.0. Heck, his best was 7.6 - below the 8.0 that is generally deemed "MVP level".

Even Hernandez's best season, 1979, was it really "amazing"? .344 with 11 homers? .340 with 11+ homers was done 10 different times in the 1970s - twice by Rod Carew. If something is done basically every year, is it really amazing?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Which years are you calling "amazing" for Hernandez? Or "great"?

So 5 seasons that were great or better?

If you rank them in order by slugging, Hernandez's 5th best was .449. Is that great? His 5th best season in homers was 13. His 5th best season in hits was 171. By WAR, his 5th best season was 5.0. Heck, his best was 7.6 - below the 8.0 that is generally deemed "MVP level".

Even Hernandez's best season, 1979, was it really "amazing"? .344 with 11 homers? .340 with 11+ homers was done 10 different times in the 1970s - twice by Rod Carew. If something is done basically every year, is it really amazing?

Yeah, I would call a 7.6 bWAR year, where a guy wins MVP "amazing."

Let's rank the top 14 seasons by Mattingly (M) and Hernandez (H) by bWAR.

1)H: 7.6 2)M: 7.2 3)H: 6.7 4)M: 6.5 5/6) M/H: 6.3 (tie) 7)H: 5.5 8)M: 5.1 9)H: 5 10)H: 4.6 11)H:4.4 12/13)M/H: 4.2 14) H: 4.1

That's 9 for Hernandez and 5 for Mattingly.

Now you will say, but Hernandez didn't hit for power. This is true, but he was arguably the greatest fielding first baseman ever.

Now you will say "But I'm smarter than WAR, and I, unlike WAR, know that being a good first baseman doesn't matter."

I would say that usually it is hard to have a large fielding impact as first baseman, unless you are Keith Hernandez. He was just that good.

An accepted standard for defensive value is total zone defense (Rtot). Though, imperfect, Rtot shows the importance a first baseman can have. Keith Hernandez' Total Zone Defense was 117. He is 40th all-time of any player ever going back to the 50s when the stat measures to.

By comparison, Bill Mazeroski's Total Zone Defense (rTot) was 147, Omar Vizquel's 129, Mike Schmidt's 127, Don Mattingly 33, and Will Clark's was 2.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Yeah, I would call a 7.6 bWAR year, where a guy wins MVP "amazing."

Let's rank the top 14 seasons by Mattingly (M) and Hernandez (H) by bWAR.

1)H: 7.6 2)M: 7.2 3)H: 6.7 4)M: 6.5 5/6) M/H: 6.3 (tie) 7)H: 5.5 8)M: 5.1 9)H: 5 10)H: 4.6 11)H:4.4 12/13)M/H: 4.2 14) H: 4.1

That's 9 for Hernandez and 5 for Mattingly.

Now you will say, but Hernandez didn't hit for power. This is true, but he was arguably the greatest fielding first baseman ever.

Now you will say "But I'm smarter than WAR, and I, unlike WAR, know that being a good first baseman doesn't matter."

I would say that usually it is hard to have a large fielding impact as first baseman, unless you are Keith Hernandez. He was just that good.

An accepted standard for defensive value is total zone defense (Rtot). Though, imperfect, Rtot shows the importance a first baseman can have. Keith Hernandez' Total Zone Defense was 117. He is 40th all-time of any player ever going back to the 50s when the stat measures to.

By comparison, Bill Mazeroski's Total Zone Defense (rTot) was 147, Omar Vizquel's 129, Mike Schmidt's 127, Don Mattingly 33, and Will Clark's was 2.

I'm not sure why you're mentioning Mattingly since I didn't ask about him or mention him in any way.

A WAR of 7.6 is really good. But amazing? Nah. He finished FOURTH in WAR that year in the NL, 3rd among position players.

But, I'll go with that incredibly loose definition of "amazing" and concede his 1979 was amazing. What was his other amazing season? His three great ones?

And, yeah, I basically don't care about defense at first base. It's importance is very, very low when evaluating 1B.