Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by Tabe

And 162 homers.

If you start a 1B's HOF case talking about his defense, he doesn't belong.

11 Gold Gloves ...

60 WAR....

MVP...

Silver Sluggers

That's good enough for me ..

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Man maybe it's because I'm a Dodger fan but I'm certainly don't see Posey as a first ballot and have questions about him even making it. Even at a position that SHOULD have lower standards due to the physical demands of the job his totals are SO low. Not a lot of 1500 hit, 700 RBI, 600 Run, 150 HR guys in the hall even at catcher. A 44 career WAR doesn't impress much either. Great player, but not sure about HOF player.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Man maybe it's because I'm a Dodger fan but I'm certainly don't see Posey as a first ballot and have questions about him even making it. Even at a position that SHOULD have lower standards due to the physical demands of the job his totals are SO low. Not a lot of 1500 hit, 700 RBI, 600 Run, 150 HR guys in the hall even at catcher. A 44 career WAR doesn't impress much either. Great player, but not sure about HOF player.

What about Molina? His counting stats are all higher because he played a lot longer than Posey, but his WAR is actually a little lower at 42.1.

Catchers are definitely looked at differently than other positions so I think they both will eventually get in, but not necessarily on the first ballot.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Man maybe it's because I'm a Dodger fan but I'm certainly don't see Posey as a first ballot and have questions about him even making it.

He quit the game too early.

He had almost 200 million reasons to do so, but checking out of the game to go home and chill with the family while you're still healthy and productive isn't a great HOF look even if it's a totally rational decision.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

He quit the game too early.

He had almost 200 million reasons to do so, but checking out of the game to go home and chill with the family while you're still healthy and productive isn't a great HOF look even if it's a totally rational decision.

Isn't that what Koufax did?

And who knows if he was really or felt healthy.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Svabinsky78

Isn't that what Koufax did?

And who knows if he was really or felt healthy.

I don't think it hurts Posey. He is very well liked, he's a catcher, he's in.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't think it hurts Posey. He is very well liked, he's a catcher, he's in.

I agreed. I think Posey is in. He was also the anchor of all those champion teams.

[G1911]

I would not vote for him, but Posey is pretty much a lock. People like him and that team won 3 WS with nobody else who has a HOF argument on playing for them. He’ll get in even with the very weak career line.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Man maybe it's because I'm a Dodger fan but I'm certainly don't see Posey as a first ballot and have questions about him even making it. Even at a position that SHOULD have lower standards due to the physical demands of the job his totals are SO low. Not a lot of 1500 hit, 700 RBI, 600 Run, 150 HR guys in the hall even at catcher. A 44 career WAR doesn't impress much either. Great player, but not sure about HOF player.

I agree. Not many guys who played just 6 full seasons are in the Hall.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Svabinsky78

11 Gold Gloves ...

60 WAR....

MVP...

Silver Sluggers

That's good enough for me ..

He's one of those guys that WAR loves for no discernible reason. Ex: 1982. 7 homers, 72 runs, 413 slugging - and he gets a 4.6 WAR. That's not even a good season let alone nearly All-Star but WAR thinks it is.

Also, he was washed up at 35 and played just 12 full seasons.

If you like Hernandez, put in John Olerud, too.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's one of those guys that WAR loves for no discernible reason. Ex: 1982. 7 homers, 72 runs, 413 slugging - and he gets a 4.6 WAR. That's not even a good season let alone nearly All-Star but WAR thinks it is.

Also, he was washed up at 35 and played just 12 full seasons.

If you like Hernandez, put in John Olerud, too.

Olerud....3 GGs..... Hernandez 11.

I know people poo poo GGs when it comes to certain positions but I am of the opinion that unless you played that position in the pros, a person has no right to poo poo a GG at any position.

Olerud was great, as was Will Clark.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Svabinsky78

I know people poo poo GGs when it comes to certain positions but I am of the opinion that unless you played that position in the pros, a person has no right to poo poo a GG at any position.

If person has not done X, person cannot have negative opinion on X but can have a positive one.

This makes no sense.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by G1911

If person has not done X, person cannot have negative opinion on X but can have a positive one.

This makes no sense.

The Gold Glove Award is the award given annually to players judged to have exhibited superior individual fielding performances at each fielding position. Winners are determined from voting by the managers and coaches in each league, many of whom have done X, know the game in and out, and can appreciate the difficulty, challenges, etc. of each position, including 1st base. Yes, a first baseman may not get as many line drives or pop ups like a SS or outfielder respectively but it's still challenging to play that position well in the pros and requires lots of skill and concentration.

A person who was recognized by the league's coaches and managers 11 times during his 16 year career, of which not all 16 years were full seasons for him, for his position play, is a MAJOR accomplishment.

[packs]

At no point in his career was Keith Hernandez better than Don Mattingly. If Mattingly is not in the HOF there is no argument for Hernandez.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by packs

At no point in his career was Keith Hernandez better than Don Mattingly. If Mattingly is not in the HOF there is no argument for Hernandez.

I am all for Donnie B getting in. I am a bigger hall guy though....would put in Dave Parker, Murphy, Lou W, Richie Allen, Flood, Andruw Jones, Kent, etc.

To me, you don't have to be Aaron, Mays, Ruth...if you were one of the best offensively, and/or defensively at your respective position for a considerable stretch, you should be recognized.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

At no point in his career was Keith Hernandez better than Don Mattingly. If Mattingly is not in the HOF there is no argument for Hernandez.

This is a silly argument, considering that Keith Hernandez started playing a decade before Mattingly. Are you discounting Hernandez' MVP that he won in 1979, 3 years before Mattingly played for the Yankees?

Yes, Mattingly was more productive than Hernandez during his prime from 1984 through 1989. This was the end of Hernandez' career, as Hernandez retired in 1990 and is 7 years older than Mattingly. Not exactly an apples to apples comparison.

Mattingly only had 4 great years (over 5 WAR).
Hernandez had 5 great years (over 5 WAR).
And Mattingly only had 2 other years with over 3 WAR.
Hernandez had 6 other years with over 3 WAR.

Many people consider Hernandez to be the best fielding first baseman ever. No one (except maybe you?) consider Mattingly to be a better fielder.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Svabinsky78

The Gold Glove Award is the award given annually to players judged to have exhibited superior individual fielding performances at each fielding position. Winners are determined from voting by the managers and coaches in each league, many of whom have done X, know the game in and out, and can appreciate the difficulty, challenges, etc. of each position, including 1st base. Yes, a first baseman may not get as many line drives or pop ups like a SS or outfielder respectively but it's still challenging to play that position well in the pros and requires lots of skill and concentration.

A person who was recognized by the league's coaches and managers 11 times during his 16 year career, of which not all 16 years were full seasons for him, for his position play, is a MAJOR accomplishment.

Didn't Palmeiro win a GG in a year he played fewer than 50 games at 1B?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Didn't Palmeiro win a GG in a year he played fewer than 50 games at 1B?

In 1999 Palmeiro played 128 games at DH and only 28 at 1B and won the Gold Glove at 1B. He had 13 assists as a 1B.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Svabinsky78

The Gold Glove Award is the award given annually to players judged to have exhibited superior individual fielding performances at each fielding position. Winners are determined from voting by the managers and coaches in each league, many of whom have done X, know the game in and out, and can appreciate the difficulty, challenges, etc. of each position, including 1st base. Yes, a first baseman may not get as many line drives or pop ups like a SS or outfielder respectively but it's still challenging to play that position well in the pros and requires lots of skill and concentration.

A person who was recognized by the league's coaches and managers 11 times during his 16 year career, of which not all 16 years were full seasons for him, for his position play, is a MAJOR accomplishment.

I am cognizant of what a Gold Glove is. You wrote the argument that nobody who is not a major leaguer can put a less than very positive value on it, but you or others can (i.e. must, as any other option has been effectively removed) put a high value on it without being a major leaguer yourself. That makes no sense at all, even if one accepts appeal to authority as the height of reason.

The less extreme reasonable argument version, that a 1B GG has a lot of value and should be valued significantly for HOF voting, is really easy to refute with the corrupt or blatantly incompetent Palmeiro choice.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's one of those guys that WAR loves for no discernible reason. Ex: 1982. 7 homers, 72 runs, 413 slugging - and he gets a 4.6 WAR. That's not even a good season let alone nearly All-Star but WAR thinks it is.

Also, he was washed up at 35 and played just 12 full seasons.

If you like Hernandez, put in John Olerud, too.

You love to cherry-pick the data. In 1982, Hernandez finished in the top 10 in the NL in batting average with .299 and was 3rd in the NL in on base percentage with .397. Schmidt led the majors with .403. Hernandez led the Majors with 19 intentional walks. His OPS was .810 and his OPS+ was 127. He was top 10 in the NL in doubles (33). He won a Gold Glove. This is how he accumulated WAR.

Olerud finished in top 10 in MVP voting once. Hernandez had 3 top 5 finishes including an MVP.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

You love to cherry-pick the data. In 1982, Hernandez finished in the top 10 in the NL in batting average with .299 and was 3rd in the NL in on base percentage with .397. Schmidt led the majors with .403. Hernandez led the Majors with 19 intentional walks. His OPS was .810 and his OPS+ was 127. He was top 10 in the NL in doubles (33). He won a Gold Glove. This is how he accumulated WAR.

Olerud finished in top 10 in MVP voting once. Hernandez had 3 top 5 finishes including an MVP.

It's not really cherry picking. There is no time or metric or era by which you can twist a 1B hitting .299 with 7 homers into being a good year. None. Go look at Al Oliver in 1982 and try and tell me that Hernandez was even close as WAR says he was.

And you, again, went right back to Gold Gloves. For a 1B. One of Olerud's greatest talents was eliminating errors from other players, something ignored by Gold Glove voters and dWAR. He consistently cut down throwing errors when joining teams. But, again, who cares? It's 1B. It's like bragging about Jim Kaat's Gold Gloves as a pitcher.

Olerud had essentially the same total WAR in nearly the same AB. He hit 18+ homers seven times - Hernandez did it once. Olerud led his league in OPS and OPS+ and hit .350 or higher twice. Hernandez never did any of that.

I don't think Olerud belongs in the Hall. Hernandez was a fine player who had an excellent career. But he doesn't belong in the Hall either.

[brass_rat]

Somewhat related to this discussion, I enjoyed this blog post:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-fred...3000-hit-club/

I like this adjustment as well:

"ZiPS actually has a milestone algorithm I wrote some years ago that reduces playing time less as a player nears a significant milestone, so the projection system now has Freeman more likely to get to 3,000 than to fall short, at 53%."

[Peter_Spaeth]

Reviving, with modifications from 2023 or new entrants showing in CAPS. These are by RC class.
1995 Beltran (maybe) (LIKELY)
1997 Beltre (lock)(IN)
1999 Sabathia (likely)(IN)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)(IN)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)(LOCK)
2002 Mauer (likely)(IN)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (unlikely)
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2011 Altuve (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Sale (MAYBE)
2011 Freeman (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (likely)(LOCK)
2012 Harper (likely)(LOCK)
2013 Arenado (likely)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2013 Cole (likely)
2014 Betts (likely)(LOCK)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
2016 T Turner (UNLIKELY)
2016 Seager (UNLIKELY)
2017 Judge (LOCK)
2017 Bregman (TOO SOON TO TELL)

Thoughts? Additions?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Reviving, with modifications from 2023 showing in CAPS. These are by RC class.
1995 Beltran (maybe) (LIKELY)
1997 Beltre (lock)(IN)
1999 Sabathia (likely)(IN)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)(IN)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)(LOCK)
2002 Mauer (likely)(IN)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (unlikely)
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2011 Altuve (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Freeman (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (likely)(LOCK)
2012 Harper (likely)(LOCK)
2013 Arenado (likely)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2013 Cole (likely)
2014 Betts (likely)(LOCK)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
AND ADDING NEW ENTRANTS
2016 T Turner (unlikely)
2016 Seager (unlikely)
2017 Judge (LOCK)

Thoughts? Additions?

If you are including Turner and Seager you may want to include Bregman, especially with the year he is having.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's one of those guys that WAR loves for no discernible reason.

Rick Reuschel is in this club.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Rick Reuschel is in this club.

Bobby Grich.

[nat]

Conventional wisdom often under-values players who are good at lots of things but not great at any single thing. Bobby Grich is an example. He was very good defensively. He had good-but-not-great power. He drew lots of walks, so his on base percentage was good, but since he had a relatively low batting average, it wasn't outstandingly good. Add it up and you get a really good player. But since he didn't do anything flashy, he doesn't have the corresponding reputation.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nat

Conventional wisdom often under-values players who are good at lots of things but not great at any single thing. Bobby Grich is an example. He was very good defensively. He had good-but-not-great power. He drew lots of walks, so his on base percentage was good, but since he had a relatively low batting average, it wasn't outstandingly good. Add it up and you get a really good player. But since he didn't do anything flashy, he doesn't have the corresponding reputation.

That makes sense but he ranks ahead of Jackie, Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio, hard to buy into that for me anyhow.

[packs]

What about Aaron Nola for the too soon to tell crowd? Nothing jumps out but he's 30 years old and has over 1500 K's. They say 3000 is the magic number for pitchers and still being relatively young I could see a path to it.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That makes sense but he ranks ahead of Jackie, Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio, hard to buy into that for me anyhow.

To get back to subject instead of Hernandez and personal agendas between posters -

Biggio, Utley and Jackie are all really close together. Jackie is a very short career which is why, but Utley is 1.0 WAR below Biggio. Have a hard time seeing them as essentially the same value. Biggio played far more at a similar effectiveness. One really has to buy into dWAR's hatred of Biggio's defense.