OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[the 'stache]

No problem, David.

Regarding Nolan Ryan, I don't put a lot of weight in his win-loss record. He played for so many bad teams. I'd be willing to bet he was on more losing teams than winning ones. Maybe I'll look at that later tonight. But some of the best pitchers today, like Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw, only have a few 20 win seasons between them, and that's not because of anything they've done. A great pitcher can win fewer games than a good pitcher if that good pitcher has a great defense, and a really potent offense behind them. In 1987, Nolan Ryan led the National League with a 2.87 ERA, in strikeouts, in Fip, in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, in K:BB ratio, and ERA +. But he was 8-16. Those numbers don't reconcile in my brain.

Ryan has more strikeouts, and more no hitters than anybody in history, and really, there's nobody close to either figure. He has an 839 strikeout lead, and the guy he leads is retired. And the nearest active strikeout pitcher is more than 3,300 strikeouts behind Ryan. And while Dunn didn't lead in any major category, Ryan led his league in strikeouts 11 times, and ERA twice. He holds the single season strikeout record, too, with 383. And he never won a Cy Young, but he finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting six times.

Also, his 6.6 hits per 9 innings pitched is the best ever. And he did that while pitching 5,386 innings.

I don't know what Adam Dunn would have to do to get in. I don't think there's anything he can do. Even if he hit 600 home runs, I don't think he gets in. He's playing in an era where home runs are plentiful. His one claim to fame is home runs, but he's never been the best at it. Every year, there was at least one guy better than him. He finished second in the league in home runs three times. Third once. Fourth twice. Fifth twice. So again, he was pretty good, but never the best. If he were a big time run producer, that might be a little easier to overlook. But he's not even that great an RBI guy. He's hit 462 homers, and driven in 1,162 runs. He's driven in 700 other base runners besides himself.

If you look at the first two 500 home run guys he'll meet if he gets to 500, here's how they'll match up RBI-wise.

Adam Dunn 462 home runs, 1,162* RBI
Eddie Murray 504 home runs, 1,917 RBI
Gary Sheffield 509 home runs, 1,676 RBI

Say Dunn plays one more year, hits 38 home runs, and drives in 100 RBI. He's at 1,262. He's 414 RBI behind Sheffield, and 655 behind Murray.

Dunn's best RBI seasons are as follows:
106 RBI 2007
105 RBI 2009
103 RBI 2010
102 RBI 2004
101 RBI 2005
100 RBI 2008

Why are his RBI totals so low? Adam Dunn is a career .225 hitter with runners in scoring position. He is a .229 career hitter in high leverage situations. He is a career .237 hitter in medium leverage situations, and a .242 career hitter in low leverage situations. You want your power hitters to perform well in high leverage situations.

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David