Paul Skenes Superfractor Ends in Goldin

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Centauri

Wander became worthless, but not because of his production in the majors - the hype was proven well founded there. Dude was elite.

I know it's two different markets but I think pre-war is much safer, we already know what Ty Cobb did on the field, we already know that Hal Chase and Cap Anson were shitheads.

With modern you never know if someone is getting injured or catching charges, I guess thats the gamble though.

Personally, I feel much safer buying a 1914 CJ Jackson for the same price as a guy who played 4 games but that's just me.

[BioCRN]

Is there anyone that thinks this card was purchased by a Paul Skenes super fan?

It's gambling...I mean, prospecting. Yeah, prospecting.

In other areas beyond the crazy price for a high-end super-prospect there's lesser Superfractor "prospectors" paying thousands of dollars for guys that only have a sliver of Skenes's talent hoping they can flip it during a hot point in their career.

Someone paid $1000 for a Edouard Julien RC Superfractor (PSA 10) 2 weeks ago. He's a defensive average-at-best 25 year old 2nd baseman slashing .245/.358/.428 in 602 PA over 2 seasons...and doing worse this season compared to last year.

The buy-in is much bigger, but I like the chances for the Skenes investor over guys chasing talent like Julien.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I know it's two different markets but I think pre-war is much safer, we already know what Ty Cobb did on the field, we already know that Hal Chase and Cap Anson were shitheads.



With modern you never know if someone is getting injured or catching charges, I guess thats the gamble though.



Personally, I feel much safer buying a 1914 CJ Jackson for the same price as a guy who played 4 games but that's just me.

Obviously, there's additional risk when you need to project a player's career, rather than waiting until they've retired. And sure, a lot of people seem to over-estimate what will happen, driving up prices a bit.

But when I see right here in the BST section that you need to pay $6,000 for a 1-of-1 card of Herbie Moran, an outfielder who ended with 2 career home runs (and it's not even autographed), $80k for Skenes doesn't seem so bad.

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[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Obviously, there's additional risk when you need to project a player's career, rather than waiting until they've retired. And sure, a lot of people seem to over-estimate what will happen, driving up prices a bit.

But when I see right here in the BST section that you need to pay $6,000 for a 1-of-1 card of Herbie Moran, an outfielder who ended with 2 career home runs (and it's not even autographed), $80k for Skenes doesn't seem so bad.

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Yea, that's just crazy in my opinion when you can buy a 1907 Dietsche Cobb for the same amount, but to each their own.

[packs]

I think we should recognize that there are equally as nutty valuations in pre-war. I'm sure a modern collector will have just as big laugh on a guy who spends a few thousand bucks on a Louis Lowdermilk T207. He of his 4 and 5 career record.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by packs

I think we should recognize that there are equally as nutty valuations in pre-war. I'm sure a modern collector will have just as big laugh on a guy who spends a few thousand bucks on a Louis Lowdermilk T207. He of his 4 and 5 career record.

Don’t forget the huge price difference depending on what cigarette brand happens to be on the back of a card.

[packs]

Or the other esoteric value indicators like a dog being pictured on an Art Whitney Old Judge. Always going to cost you a few hundred dollars more to own that dog.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by packs

Or the other esoteric value indicators like a dog being pictured on an Art Whitney Old Judge. Always going to cost you a few hundred dollars more to own that dog.

Or "Magie" vs. "Magee"

[packs]

Or Bill O’Hara in a Cardinals uniform. He had 88 career hits and will cost you more than a few HOFers will combined. All for those 9 games he played for the Cards.

[G1911]

The big difference with these examples is a Magie or a Lowdermilk or even an Old Judge dog is likely to keep value or gain in 5-10 years. This is more likely to be an expensive coaster in ten years than hold value, with a tiny percentage shot at a payday.

It is pretty silly we pay serious money for cardboard pictures of men.

[packs]

I don't disagree but everything is relative to collector tastes. Will people still make runs at the T207 set and pay up for Lowdermilk? I don't know. It's semi-popular with collectors of a certain time, but what about the future? Will there still be the same set building mentality?

There definitely isn't a set building mentality in the modern collector.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by G1911

The big difference with these examples is a Magie or a Lowdermilk or even an Old Judge dog is likely to keep value or gain in 5-10 years. This is more likely to be an expensive coaster in ten years than hold value, with a tiny percentage shot at a payday.

It is pretty silly we pay serious money for cardboard pictures of men.

Or shiny pieces of certain metals, or certain pretty rocks, or the residue an oyster uses to surround a grain of sand.

Or wood sticks men used to strike balls, or the garments they wore when they did so....

It's all relative I guess.

[BeanTown]

Or how Cap Anson is dressed on his OJ card.

[Yoda]

[QUOTE=packs;2440652]Or the other esoteric value indicators like a dog being pictured on an Art Whitney Old Judge. Always going to cost you a few hundred dollars more to own that dog.[/

Likewise the mascot on the OJ Ewing and mascot. Surely the mascot should receive more of a premium than the dog, unless the pooch happens to be Lassie.

[Mark17]

[QUOTE=Yoda;2440685]

Originally Posted by packs

Or the other esoteric value indicators like a dog being pictured on an Art Whitney Old Judge. Always going to cost you a few hundred dollars more to own that dog.[/

Likewise the mascot on the OJ Ewing and mascot. Surely the mascot should receive more of a premium than the dog, unless the pooch happens to be Lassie.

Think of the marginal dollars that have traded hands due to John Titus' facial hair.

[Carter08]

Injury risk is obviously very real but he looked dominant yet again. Won a national championship, first overall pick, and he’s dating one of the most popular social media stars of all time. Pretty high ceiling.

[Leon]

[QUOTE=Mark17;2440694]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Think of the marginal dollars that have traded hands due to John Titus' facial hair.

LOL...mustaches are in high demand on T206s....

[HistoricNewspapers]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look at some clips and would be curious your take on his mechanics.

Skenes mechanics are fine. It is just simply going to come down to pure luck if his body has the ability to withstand that amount of torque on his arm for an extended period of time. Some guys last and some don't.

Did Schilling pointing out any specific flaws, or just that he will get injured at some point because he throws so hard. Isn't that kind of like the broken clock being correct twice a day?

[packs]

He looks like he's throwing easy gas to me. I don't see the stress or max effort like I do with power relief pitchers.

[babraham]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Think of the marginal dollars that have traded hands due to John Titus' facial hair.

Ha!

[Snowman]

Skenes received a standing ovation last week on the road in St Louis after they pulled him in the 6th inning.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Skenes received a standing ovation last week on the road in St Louis after they pulled him in the 6th inning.

Hope somehow he doesn’t follow so many others …… Syndergaard, Strasburg, DeGrom, Harvey, Wood. Seems hard to believe he won’t succumb to some major issue.

[YankeeCollector]

Skenes superfractor owner is prob laughing all the way to the bank.
He can mostly likely get $250-300k right now for that card. He should definitely sell.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by YankeeCollector

Skenes superfractor owner is prob laughing all the way to the bank.
He can mostly likely get $250-300k right now for that card. He should definitely sell.

Guy is on fire.

[Lucas00]

Originally Posted by YankeeCollector

Skenes superfractor owner is prob laughing all the way to the bank.
He can mostly likely get $250-300k right now for that card. He should definitely sell.

I'd do it fast before his elbow explodes and he doesn't step onto a major league field for a year.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

I'd do it fast before his elbow explodes and he doesn't step onto a major league field for a year.

Hopefully that doesn’t happen. Hope you would agree. He’s great for baseball.

[Lucas00]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Hopefully that doesn’t happen. Hope you would agree. He’s great for baseball.

Of course I hope it doesn’t happen. But how long can you throw 100mph for as a starter before it does? It feels inevitable to me.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

Of course I hope it doesn’t happen. But how long can you throw 100mph for as a starter before it does? It feels inevitable to me.

I’m not a doctor but I play one on television. Just kidding. I do echo others that think he looks pretty effortless in the way he throws, and his pre-game stretching and workouts are getting a lot of press. Hopefully he’s an exception.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

Of course I hope it doesn’t happen. But how long can you throw 100mph for as a starter before it does? It feels inevitable to me.

Verlander did a pretty good job adjusting when he couldn't throw 100 anymore. Velocity was calculated differently back in the day but Nolan RYan threw 100 consistently as a starter. I think throwing mechanics and luck are more of a factor in injury than how fast someone throws.

[Lucas00]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

Verlander did a pretty good job adjusting when he couldn't throw 100 anymore. Velocity was calculated differently back in the day but Nolan RYan threw 100 consistently as a starter. I think throwing mechanics and luck are more of a factor in injury than how fast someone throws.

And I hope Paul is one of these outliers as well. Like Nolan and Randy. But I think Statistically it's too dicey to take a several hundred thousand dollar risk (talking about the card). Then again like people always say, if you have that much to spend on a single card you probably don't care that much or can take a loss without much care. What I hope, the buyer is a collector and fan of Paul, and will never sell it.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

And I hope Paul is one of these outliers as well. Like Nolan and Randy. But I think Statistically it's too dicey to take a several hundred thousand dollar risk (talking about the card). Then again like people always say, if you have that much to spend on a single card you probably don't care that much or can take a loss without much care. What I hope, the buyer is a collector and fan of Paul, and will never sell it.

Forgot about the big unit! I agree though that speculating a few hundred grand on a rookie is insanity!

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

Forgot about the big unit! I agree though that speculating a few hundred grand on a rookie is insanity!

What's crazy about Randy Johnson, is nobody would have ever "invested" in him to begin with.

He was an unheralded 2nd round pick with a mediocre minor league career. A live arm for sure, but with really bad control issues.

His first several years as a starter he struck out a ton of guys, but had a horrible problems with Walks, and sported some atrocious WHIP numbers.

The same could be said of Nolan Ryan, but Nolan came out of it at a much younger age then Randy.

Johnson didn't even begin to become dominating until he was almost 30, which by then "investors" would think it's a complete waste of time putting money into a guy who has to crawl out of a giant statistical hole to one day be considered one of the best pitchers to ever live.

That would be like, all of a sudden, deciding to invest in Cliff Lee Rookie cards in 2008.

Even, with all that said. Considering the numbers he eventually compiled throughout his career. I don't see a lot of general interest in Randy Johnson Rookie cards.

[Beercan collector]

The last Rookie I speculated in was 90 leaf Steve Avery ,
$20 I’ll never get back

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

What's crazy about Randy Johnson, is nobody would have ever "invested" in him to begin with.

He was an unheralded 2nd round pick with a mediocre minor league career. A live arm for sure, but with really bad control issues.

His first several years as a starter he struck out a ton of guys, but had a horrible problems with Walks, and sported some atrocious WHIP numbers.

The same could be said of Nolan Ryan, but Nolan came out of it at a much younger age then Randy.

Johnson didn't even begin to become dominating until he was almost 30, which by then "investors" would think it's a complete waste of time putting money into a guy who has to crawl out of a giant statistical hole to one day be considered one of the best pitchers to ever live.

That would be like, all of a sudden, deciding to invest in Cliff Lee Rookie cards in 2008.

Even, with all that said. Considering the numbers he eventually compiled throughout his career. I don't see a lot of general interest in Randy Johnson Rookie cards.

You can't give most Randy Johnson cards away. There are a few 89 Fleer versions that sell for 4 and 5 figures. Not sure why but I never hear of any Randy collectors besides the ones that collect the 89 Fleer error versions.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by bnorth

You can't give most Randy Johnson cards away. There are a few 89 Fleer versions that sell for 4 and 5 figures. Not sure why but I never hear of any Randy collectors besides the ones that collect the 89 Fleer error versions.

Out of curiosity I just checked and Randy Johnson Upper Deck Rookies in PSA 10 sell for well under 100 bucks nowadays.

Ken Griffey Jr's card from that set sells for about 2 grand.

Griffey Jr. has 1 MVP and a career 83.8 WAR

Randy Johnson has 5 Cy Youngs and a career 101.1 WAR

Also...and forgive me if I'm perpetuating a myth, wasn't there rumors of monster boxes full of Ken Griffey Jr. Rookies coming out of the Upper Deck factory, separately from it's normal print run?

Now, I'm not saying that Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson should be on the same playing field, when it comes to this issue, but the discrepancy seems insane to me.

To me, I'd say Randy Johnson was the Nolan Ryan of his era...I'd call Pedro the Sandy Koufax of that era.......but I guess, if anything, it reinforces that collectors/investors don't really care about most pitchers, unless they are present day phenoms.

Skenes looks fantastic so far...but how long until he becomes just the next Bret Saberhagen, Stephen Strasburg......or hell, best case scenario...Randy Johnson?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Out of curiosity I just checked and Randy Johnson Upper Deck Rookies in PSA 10 sell for well under 100 bucks nowadays.

Ken Griffey Jr's card from that set sells for about 2 grand.

Griffey Jr. has 1 MVP and a career 83.8 WAR

Randy Johnson has 5 Cy Youngs and a career 101.1 WAR

Also...and forgive me if I'm perpetuating a myth, wasn't there rumors of monster boxes full of Ken Griffey Jr. Rookies coming out of the Upper Deck factory, separately from it's normal print run?

Now, I'm not saying that Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson should be on the same playing field, when it comes to this issue, but the discrepancy seems insane to me.

To me, I'd say Randy Johnson was the Nolan Ryan of his era...I'd call Pedro the Sandy Koufax of that era.......but I guess, if anything, it reinforces that collectors/investors don't really care about most pitchers, unless they are present day phenoms.

Skenes looks fantastic so far...but how long until he becomes just the next Bret Saberhagen, Stephen Strasburg......or hell, best case scenario...Randy Johnson?

Nolan and Koufax are very big with collectors, so it's obviously not all pitchers. Johnson just never gained hobby traction, maybe in part it was the teams he played on (Yankees were VERY late), maybe it was his lack of charm, maybe part of it was that he always seemed to be third fiddle to Clemens and Maddux even though that probably was not fair.

[packs]

Randy does well in the autograph realm. His signed Topps Traded and Tiffany rookies sell.

[Exhibitman]

Add me to the chorus of those who think Randy Johnson does not get the requisite hobby love for his achievements. In that vein, he reminds me of this guy:



Per Wikipedia: "With 363 career wins, Spahn holds the major league record for a left-handed pitcher and has the most by a pitcher who played his entire career in the post-1920 live-ball era. He was a 17-time All-Star who won 20 games or more in 13 seasons, including a 23–7 win–loss record when he was age 42. Spahn won the 1957 Cy Young Award and was a three-time runner-up during the period when only one award was given for both leagues. At the time of his retirement in 1965, Spahn held the Major League record for career strikeouts by a left-handed pitcher. ... The Warren Spahn Award, given annually to the major leagues' best left-handed pitcher, is named in his honor." And he lost 4 seasons to WWII. Yet when we discuss GOAT LHPs, Spahn (100.1 WAR) usually is not considered in the same breath as Grove (106.8), Randy Johnson (101.1), and Koufax. Why: because speed kills. A crafty guy whose philosophy of pitching was "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing," he doesn't capture the fancy the same way as the fireballers do. Plus the coolest wind-up ever.

[Peter_Spaeth]

"Hitting is Timing. Pitching is upsetting timing."

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

I'd do it fast before his elbow explodes and he doesn't step onto a major league field for a year.

Yep, his elbow explodes and then Olivia Dunne dumps him for somebody else. That'll be like shooting him twice and he might not recover from it.

[ZachS]

Lots of haters in here. Skenes will be one of the most dominant pitchers to ever play by the end of his career. I've watched him pitch many times (LSU baseball season tickets) and he makes it look completely effortless.

Plus, he's a good guy. Wore #20 at LSU to honor one of his former AF teammates who was killed in a training accident. He also is involved in veterans charities like Folds of Honor. I look forward to watching him dominate MLB for the next several years.

[Yoda]

One scenario is he wins 30 games in his first full season with an era of 2.2. The card goes bananas, changing hands multiple times and reaches 1M$. The next season he blows out his arm (no Tommy John here) and his card price plummets faster than stocks in the Crash of 1929.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Add me to the chorus of those who think Randy Johnson does not get the requisite hobby love for his achievements. In that vein, he reminds me of this guy:



Per Wikipedia: "With 363 career wins, Spahn holds the major league record for a left-handed pitcher and has the most by a pitcher who played his entire career in the post-1920 live-ball era. He was a 17-time All-Star who won 20 games or more in 13 seasons, including a 23–7 win–loss record when he was age 42. Spahn won the 1957 Cy Young Award and was a three-time runner-up during the period when only one award was given for both leagues. At the time of his retirement in 1965, Spahn held the Major League record for career strikeouts by a left-handed pitcher. ... The Warren Spahn Award, given annually to the major leagues' best left-handed pitcher, is named in his honor." And he lost 4 seasons to WWII. Yet when we discuss GOAT LHPs, Spahn (100.1 WAR) usually is not considered in the same breath as Grove (106.8), Randy Johnson (101.1), and Koufax. Why: because speed kills. A crafty guy whose philosophy of pitching was "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing," he doesn't capture the fancy the same way as the fireballers do. Plus the coolest wind-up ever.

Count me in for thinking Spahn is underappreciated.

[dealme]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Count me in for thinking Spahn is underappreciated.

Agreed….and that’s just for fighting at the Battle of the Bulge, let alone his on-field achievements.


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[Peter_Spaeth]

Spahn was funny too. He gave up Mays' first homer, apparently a titanic blast. Afterwards the press asked him what happened. He allegedly said, well, for the first 60 feet it was a helluva pitch. I saw him once at a card show late in his life. He looked for all the world just like an everyday guy.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

Of course I hope it doesn’t happen. But how long can you throw 100mph for as a starter before it does? It feels inevitable to me.

Haven't you heard though? Walter Johnson was throwing 105 for 200 pitches per night, every other night, for twenty years.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

What's crazy about Randy Johnson, is nobody would have ever "invested" in him to begin with.

He was an unheralded 2nd round pick with a mediocre minor league career. A live arm for sure, but with really bad control issues.

His first several years as a starter he struck out a ton of guys, but had a horrible problems with Walks, and sported some atrocious WHIP numbers.

The same could be said of Nolan Ryan, but Nolan came out of it at a much younger age then Randy.

Johnson didn't even begin to become dominating until he was almost 30, which by then "investors" would think it's a complete waste of time putting money into a guy who has to crawl out of a giant statistical hole to one day be considered one of the best pitchers to ever live.

That would be like, all of a sudden, deciding to invest in Cliff Lee Rookie cards in 2008.

Even, with all that said. Considering the numbers he eventually compiled throughout his career. I don't see a lot of general interest in Randy Johnson Rookie cards.

Nolan Ryan's first sub 1.10 whip didn't happen until he was 42 years old. Randy's came at 31.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Count me in for thinking Spahn is underappreciated.

Spahn was also the #1 helped-by-park-factors pitcher in MLB history though. Literally #1 on the list across thousands of pitchers. Nobody pitched in a more pitcher friendly park and for longer than Warren Spahn. He's #1 on the list by a large margin too. County Stadium was even more pitcher friendly than Dodger stadium during Koufax's prime.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Spahn was also the #1 helped-by-park-factors pitcher in MLB history though. Literally #1 on the list across thousands of pitchers. Nobody pitched in a more pitcher friendly park and for longer than Warren Spahn. He's #1 on the list by a large margin too. County Stadium was even more pitcher friendly than Dodger stadium during Koufax's prime.

He went up against pitchers in that same stadium and won. His opponents had the same pitcher friendly stadium with which to work.

[G1911]

He might not be as good as Ryu, but Spahn was a fine southpaw and his cards are pretty cheap for a guy who was so good for so very long.