The future of Shohei Ohtani

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

I understand that but the Yankees aren't a basement dwelling team and they have an owner who wants to win, which is largely different from what you'll find in Baltimore. Baltimore is good this year. Their owner is largely considered one of the worst in the American League.

They are very literally in the basement right now. Let me guess, you are a Yankees fan?

[packs]

I’m not saying the current state of the team is good or that the Yankees are having a good season. I’m saying the foundation is there to win. They were in the ALCS last season with a roster that hasn’t changed much. They’re just not producing when healthy combined with not being healthy at all. If Ohtani does want to win and sign a long term deal with a team dedicated to being competitive year after year, the Yankees are a team that fits that mold.

I wouldn’t say the same thing about the Twins, for example.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Red Sox?

[bk400]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by packs

I’m not saying the current state of the team is good or that the Yankees are having a good season. I’m saying the foundation is there to win. They were in the ALCS last season with a roster that hasn’t changed much. They’re just not producing when healthy combined with not being healthy at all. If Ohtani does want to win and sign a long term deal with a team dedicated to being competitive year after year, the Yankees are a team that fits that mold.

I wouldn’t say the same thing about the Twins, for example.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

How'd that work out for Gerritt Cole?

4 years with the Yankees so far, ZERO World Series appearances.

Had he re-signed with Houston, he'd be a Champion, and have 2 WS appearances. Possibly a 3rd this year.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by TUM301

Thinking the pitching days are over. Would have pulled the plug on that 2 years ago and made him a full time outfielder. If back at close to 100% my guess is Max. 40 million per for 6-8 years, so 240-320 total. At a 33-40% discount maybe a few more teams are now in play. SF looking more and more likely to me. My 2 cents anyway...

Not a chance on earth he signs that low.

It’s still going to be the all time high, No doubt about it. If anyone hesitates to throw 450-500 million out with incentives, another team will step right in. The additional revenue to a major market team will pay for it.

Plus, tommy John is a routine surgery in baseball…to the point it’s a bonus if a pitcher has already had it in hopes the chance of reoccurrence is low. Multiple is a newer phenomenon but getting more regular with several current pitchers in the league with two. Even if he has another he definitely taking the mound again. The success of that is to be determined.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by packs

I’m not saying the current state of the team is good or that the Yankees are having a good season. I’m saying the foundation is there to win. They were in the ALCS last season with a roster that hasn’t changed much. They’re just not producing when healthy combined with not being healthy at all. If Ohtani does want to win and sign a long term deal with a team dedicated to being competitive year after year, the Yankees are a team that fits that mold.

I wouldn’t say the same thing about the Twins, for example.

I think the Yankees biggest faults are that their player development system needs to be revamped, and that they failed to address pressing needs in the off-season. Yes the re-signing of Aaron Judge was fantastic as he's a great ballplayer, but the writing was on the wall with Donaldson at third base, and they failed to address the need in Left Field.

Too much of the front office has been in power for too long. I think Cashman is a somewhat competent GM, his blunders are magnified due to the poor performance of this year, but I still think he's capable. However change is needed. People in the same situation for too long, grow too complacent. The Yankees should be banging down the door to speak to guys like James Click, Theo Epstien and Rob Neander. We're a team that's worth 8 Billion dollars, use your resources to bolster front office, and player development. It's unacceptable that we struggle to develop quality talent, and prospect hug the hell out of guys, until they're no longer valuable.

In my honest opinion though, Hal Steinbrenner is nothing like his father. Yes George was impulsive and hot headed, but he wanted to win. His impulsiveness was weighed down, most of the time, when he was surrounded by competent individuals such as Bob Watson, Gene Michael and a Younger Brian Cashman. Who were able to make good baseball decisions, and able to talk George out of making certain moves most of the time. Some pleas fell on deaf ears, such as when Cashman wanted Vlad Guerrero over Gary Sheffield, only for George to overrule him. Despite all of that though, when the Yankees didn't do well, George would make heads roll. Hal seems very content, utilizing the Yankees as a brand, and fielding a roster that's just good enough to make the playoffs.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Not a chance on earth he signs that low.

It’s still going to be the all time high, No doubt about it. If anyone hesitates to throw 450-500 million out with incentives, another team will step right in. The additional revenue to a major market team will pay for it.

Plus, tommy John is a routine surgery in baseball…to the point it’s a bonus if a pitcher has already had it in hopes the chance of reoccurrence is low. Multiple is a newer phenomenon but getting more regular with several current pitchers in the league with two. Even if he has another he definitely taking the mound again. The success of that is to be determined.

The results for pitchers after a second Tommy John surgery seem to be mixed so it's hard to predict how well Ohtani will do if he's on the mound again. If he doesn't pitch, it would seem like he could still end up with contract offers around what Aaron Judge got from the Yankees or given the uncertainty, does he have to take a short term deal then become a free agent again once he shows what he can still do?

https://www.mlb.com/news/pitchers-to...-surgery-twice

[Exhibitman]

'Wasted career': Don Mattingly. One playoff loss in 1st round, retired just before the Yankees' big run.

Trout to the Dodgers...just sayin'. Let the man contend for a title up the road and DH to close his career.

If I am a GM I am not going to pay up for Ohtani now because odds are he is going to be mediocre and/or shut down as a pitcher, and he will most likely not play in 2024.

I suspect that the Angels did not trade him because they knew he was hurt and would not have passed a physical, and that they did not shut him down earlier because they knew he wasn't coming back next year regardless. As cold-blooded as the business is, the Angels may have figured to wring every last attendance and merch dollar out of him for the rest of the year, and if it wrecked him for the next team, who cares.

If I was him, I would take the year to fully rehab, then put on a road show once better and enter the free agent market in 2025. It is a risk but if he comes back and shows the same pop as a hitter, he will still get the big bucks.

[packs]

I know Harper had Tommy John but are there other hitters in recent memory to have it? At least in Harper’s case he seems to be producing at a comparable level to before his injury.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

I know Harper had Tommy John but are there other hitters in recent memory to have it? At least in Harper’s case he seems to be producing at a comparable level to before his injury.

And it only took Harper 160 days to come back from his November 23rd surgery. This will, of course be Ohtani's second Tommy John surgery, so recovery time will be longer. But I really hope he doesn't miss the entire 2024 season. I feel like he should be able to come back as DH during the season, hopefully in spring/early summer.

[Shoeless Moe]

Bryce Harper has 12 home runs and 47 RBI and we are almost in September.

He's having an awful season.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Are there examples of pitchers who have had two of these and gone on to more success?

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Bryce Harper has 12 home runs and 47 RBI and we are almost in September.

He's having an awful season.

He's also hitting .299 with an .860 OPS. Since his return, he's been hitting for average but had a long home run drought. Recently the power seems to be coming back so while it did take him some time, it appears like he might have a strong finish. If that happens, it wouldn't be an awful season considering that he wasn't expected to be back until the All-Star break but came back in early May.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Are there examples of pitchers who have had two of these and gone on to more success?

Peter, I posted this link earlier but you may have missed it. Definitely a mixed bag following second surgery.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pitchers-to...-surgery-twice

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Peter, I posted this link earlier but you may have missed it. Definitely a mixed bag following second surgery.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pitchers-to...-surgery-twice

Sorry I missed it. Thank you.

And yeah, not exactly cause for overwhelming confidence.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Bryce Harper has 12 home runs and 47 RBI and we are almost in September.

He's having an awful season.

Bryce Harper in 2022 pre-injury:

286 average / 364 OBP / 514 SLG / 877 OPS

Bryce Harper 2023 post-injury:

299 average / 392 OBP / 468 SLG / 860 OPS

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

Bryce Harper in 2022 pre-injury:

286 average / 364 OBP / 514 SLG / 877 OPS

Bryce Harper 2023 post-injury:

299 average / 392 OBP / 468 SLG / 860 OPS

Last 30 games
.307 average / .398 OBP / .579 SLG / .977 OPS

so it took him some time to get back to his normal level but if he can finish like this, the Phillies will be very happy with his season.

Don't forget he missed a lot of 2022 with a broken thumb and was pretty lousy hitting when he came back from that but caught fire in the playoffs and almost carried the Phillies to a World Series win.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's unfortunate isn't it that two generational talents IMO, Trout and Harper, have both been plagued by injuries which clearly have taken away from their career resumes. Sadly, after coming back for one game and now being gone again, it's very unclear to me what will become of Trout. Harper still seems resilient.

[Shoeless Moe]

He's had 1 great week and about 20 awful weeks.

Yes he better stay hot to make up for that brutal 1st 4 months of the season.


26 million a year for 12 HRs and 47 RBIs, no thanks.........granted these will go up some with a month to go, but let's see if the Phillies even get in the Playoffs, luckily they have a soft Sept schedule, so they should.

[packs]

The point was Harper is playing at a comparable level. I posted the stats. You can feel how you want about them but they look comparable to me.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by jayshum

but caught fire in the playoffs and almost carried the Phillies to a World Series win.

Yes, he indeed did do that. Tremendous in the Playoffs, although a little dissapointing in the WS. I'm just saying this season has been brutal up until a week or so ago.

We'll see how he finishes.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by packs

The point was Harper is playing at a comparable level. I posted the stats. You can feel how you want about them but they look comparable to me.

I forgot you are a Yankee fan so 12 HRs and 47 RBIs looks pretty good to you. You guys arn't really familiar with offense.

To the rest of the baseball world, outside of NY, those numbers for 28 million a year are garbage.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

I forgot you are a Yankee fan so 12 HRs and 47 RBIs looks pretty good to you. You guys arn't really familiar with offense.

To the rest of the baseball world, outside of NY, those numbers for 28 million a year are garbage.

Maybe one day we'll be able to talk about the same thing at the same time.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

He's had 1 great week and about 20 awful weeks.

Yes he better stay hot to make up for that brutal 1st 4 months of the season.


26 million a year for 12 HRs and 47 RBIs, no thanks.........granted these will go up some with a month to go, but let's see if the Phillies even get in the Playoffs, luckily they have a soft Sept schedule, so they should.

Not sure if you've been watching him play or just looking at his stats, but I've seen almost every game he's played this season. As I posted earlier, he's been hitting for average and getting on base since he came back but the power was not there. Over the last month (not just 1 week), he's been hitting the way he is capable of so it looks like it just took some time for him to really fully recover from the surgery and return in just over 5 months. If he plays the remaining 30+ games of the season like he's played the past 30 games, the Phillies will be very happy with his overall season.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Yes, he indeed did do that. Tremendous in the Playoffs, although a little dissapointing in the WS. I'm just saying this season has been brutal up until a week or so ago.

We'll see how he finishes.

More than just the last week. Last 30 games:

307 average / .398 OBP / .579 SLG / .977 OPS

[Peter_Spaeth]

I've always loved Harper. Any time they want to send him to Boston is good by me.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I've always loved Harper. Any time they want to send him to Boston is good by me.

He seems pretty happy in Philly and I think has a no trade clause. With the DH in the NL now, no reason to move him to the AL for the last few years when he's likely in decline. Maybe Boston can sign him for a few years when he's 39 and his contact has ended.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I've always loved Harper. Any time they want to send him to Boston is good by me.

Plays the game with fire and with passion. 2 Time MVP, I'd take him on my roster any day of the week.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Seven

Plays the game with fire and with passion. 2 Time MVP, I'd take him on my roster any day of the week.

The discussion is not on Harper's past performance. Yes has had a very good career. Stud. The question at hand is how does a hitter do after 2 TJ's.

So we are only looking at his current season. Batting Average is high which is very good, but the power looks to be zapped (12 HRs & 47 RBI).......but his bat recently came to life so maybe he'll be fine. Time will tell.

But 2 years now of less than Harper-like numbers, he's 30 and should be in his prime. 18 HR / 65 RBI last year and 12 HR / 47 RBI so far this year. Pretty ugly for a 3 or 4 hitter getting 26 Million per year.

He ranks 145th in HRs and 131st in RBIs this season.

Hopefully we'll get a full season out of him next year.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

The discussion is not on Harper's past performance. Yes has had a very good career. Stud. The question at hand is how does a hitter do after 2 TJ's.

So we are only looking at his current season. Batting Average is high which is very good, but the power looks to be zapped (12 HRs & 47 RBI).......but his bat recently came to life so maybe he'll be fine. Time will tell.

But 2 years now of less than Harper-like numbers, he's 30 and should be in his prime. 18 HR / 65 RBI last year and 12 HR / 47 RBI so far this year. Pretty ugly for a 3 or 4 hitter getting 26 Million per year.

He ranks 145th in HRs and 131st in RBIs this season.

Hopefully we'll get a full season out of him next year.

I'm a little confused now. Harper hasn't had 2 Tommy John surgeries. He only played 99 games in 2022 mainly because he missed time with a broken thumb after getting hit by a pitch so his home runs and RBIs were down because he only had 370 ABs. Also, before the injury, he was having a solid season, but when he came back, he was pretty bad until getting hot in the playoffs.

I'm not aware of any hitters that have returned after 2 Tommy John surgeries so Ohtani may be there first to do it. However, since it is apparently possible to hit with a torn ligament that requires the surgery (like Harper last year and Ohtani currently), it would seem likely that Ohtani should be able to be an effective hitter eventually next year and beyond even if he doesn't pitch again.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by jayshum

I'm a little confused now. Harper hasn't had 2 Tommy John surgeries. He only played 99 games in 2022 mainly because he missed time with a broken thumb after getting hit by a pitch so his home runs and RBIs were down because he only had 370 ABs. Also, before the injury, he was having a solid season, but when he came back, he was pretty bad until getting hot in the playoffs.

I'm not aware of any hitters that have returned after 2 Tommy John surgeries so Ohtani may be there first to do it. However, since it is apparently possible to hit with a torn ligament that requires the surgery (like Harper last year and Ohtani currently), it would seem likely that Ohtani should be able to be an effective hitter eventually next year and beyond even if he doesn't pitch again.

Ah....sorry my error then, I thought someone said or implied he had 2 TJ surgeries......carry on then.

[Shoeless Moe]

I'm gonna revise my statement and say maybe Ohtani could head to NY, but to the Mets.

I see what they did last night, Japanese Heritage Night.

Senga on the team, could also be a selling point.

Injury now is a blessing for the Mets. Other teams will offer less. Mets will write a blank check.

Baseball players in general are not very smart (look at Trout), they will take the most money then later regret not going to a place where they could win. Or be fooled like Cole into a sense you are going somewhere better, living in the past (& past reputation) rather then present.

So Mets very well could overpay and his agent who cares about his own check, will encourage that as well.

Tell him in 2025 when fully healthy we'll sign Bregman and a few others.

I think this injury really will help the Mets.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

I'm gonna revise my statement and say maybe Ohtani could head to NY, but to the Mets.

I see what they did last night, Japanese Heritage Night.

Senga on the team, could also be a selling point.

Injury now is a blessing for the Mets. Other teams will offer less. Mets will write a blank check.

Baseball players in general are not very smart (look at Trout), they will take the most money then later regret not going to a place where they could win. Or be fooled like Cole into a sense you are going somewhere better, living in the past (& past reputation) rather then present.

So Mets very well could overpay and his agent who cares about his own check, will encourage that as well.

Tell him in 2025 when fully healthy we'll sign Bregman and a few others.

I think this injury really will help the Mets.

The Mets are also a likely destination for current Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which couldn't hurt their case (unless he and Ohtani don't like each other or something).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Ohtani in the lineup tonight.

[cgjackson222]

The Mets fans booed tonight when Othani walked. That never happens.

Also, this sign:

[bk400]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

The Mets fans booed tonight when Othani walked. That never happens.

Also, this sign:

I tell you, Ohtani is the anti-Neymar (mixing sports metaphors). Not a hint of whining or self pity. Since the injury three days ago, he's gone 3 for 5, with two doubles, a triple, and 4 walks (2 intentional).

I think he stays with the Angels, and I reiterate my unprovable belief that he made the decision before the trade deadline.

[DocScoot]

Thanks for that sign :-) My wife isn't a baseball fan but speaks and reads Japanese fluently so these signs are always good bonding moments when I ask her to translate!

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

The Mets fans booed tonight when Othani walked. That never happens.

Also, this sign:

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

Thanks for that sign :-) My wife isn't a baseball fan but speaks and reads Japanese fluently so these signs are always good bonding moments when I ask her to translate!

My wife would make the sign volunteering to donate My organs not hers.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bk400

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

Sports Colectors Daily doesn't think the injury should have much impact on Ohtani's card prices. And so far it hasn't.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...80005-83287939

[mrreality68]

I do not think it will impact his cards
1. He has already made a splash as a 2 way player for many years now.
2. Set many records and compared to Babe Ruth often
3 already has 1 MVP and a strong case for a 2nd.
4. May not pitch next hit but can still hit
5. Projected to pitch in 2025
6. Very popular player
7. If he gets on a winning team will only get more visibility

[Peter_Spaeth]

If going forward he is only a DH, I think his cards will drop relative to the market. And even more if for some insane reason he stays with the Angels.

[packs]

I don't know. I kind of feel like Ohtani has already done enough on the mound vis-a-vis his card prices. Ruth only pitched as a pitcher for 5 full seasons.

Ohtani will never be Ruth in the box but if he hits 30-40 homers a year for the next four or five years, he'll have hit aver 300 homers before his 35th birthday and have pitched more than 400 innings.

I think he's a unicorn type of player no matter what he does so long as he's decent at one of the skills. Mostly because he'll have already won 2 MVPs as a two-way player (assuming he wins this year).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know. I kind of feel like Ohtani has already done enough on the mound vis-a-vis his card prices. Ruth only pitched as a pitcher for 5 full seasons.

Ohtani will never be Ruth in the box but if he hits 30-40 homers a year for the next four or five years, he'll have hit aver 300 homers before his 35th birthday and have pitched more than 400 innings.

I think he's a unicorn type of player no matter what he does so long as he's decent at one of the skills. Mostly because he'll have already won 2 MVPs as a two-way player (assuming he wins this year).

Earlier in the thread you said "he hasn't done much yet."

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Earlier in the thread you said "he hasn't done much yet."

That comment was about counting stats. I'm still of the opinion he's not a HOFer today. But I'm also of the opinion being a HOFer isn't always necessary to have expensive cards. I meant enough to boost his cards and keep them there. Not enough to get into the HOF tomorrow.

You said if he's only a DH his prices will fall. But I don't agree because I think he's done enough as a pitcher to maintain price. And if he hits 30 to 40 homers a year for the next four or five years, I'm not sure he would have had to pitch too for his cards to be where they're at now. I can't imagine anyone pictured him being a two-way player for 10 more seasons.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

That comment was about counting stats. I'm still of the opinion he's not a HOFer today. But I'm also of the opinion being a HOFer isn't always necessary to have expensive cards. I meant enough to boost his cards and keep them there. Not enough to get into the HOF tomorrow.

You said if he's only a DH his prices will fall. But I don't agree because I think he's done enough as a pitcher to maintain price. And if he hits 30 to 40 homers a year for the next four or five years, I'm not sure he would have had to pitch too for his cards to be where they're at now. I can't imagine anyone pictured him being a two-way player for 10 more seasons.

Hopefully he will pitch again and we won't have to deal with the hypothetical, but I don't know, not ten years, but I think people expected the two way thing to continue for a lot longer than it's gone on to date and if you take that away, to me he loses some of the magic.

[packs]

I don’t know what Tanaka did but he also had a UCL issue and opted not to do surgery. Somehow he managed to be a kind of work horse for the Yankees anyway. I think they found the tear his first year over here too. Maybe there’s an option like that for Ohtani.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don’t know what Tanaka did but he also had a UCL issue and opted not to do surgery. Somehow he managed to be a kind of work horse for the Yankees anyway. I think they found the tear his first year over here too. Maybe there’s an option like that for Ohtani.

Man, when he first came over he was really something. I just looked him up, he's still pitching in Japan.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by packs

I don’t know what Tanaka did but he also had a UCL issue and opted not to do surgery. Somehow he managed to be a kind of work horse for the Yankees anyway. I think they found the tear his first year over here too. Maybe there’s an option like that for Ohtani.

I think it had to do with the nature of Tanaka's tear, where it was located and the rehab work he did around it.

I will also say, that there is zero guarantee that Ohtani is a Hall of Famer. He needs to continue to put up the production on the offensive side of the baseball. I don't think Starting Pitching is a realistic, long term option. Maybe he might be able to compete as a high leverage reliever or closer, but this is his second UCL tear, the body can't handle this much strain. He is human, afterall.

[jayshum]

Ohtani is definitely not a guaranteed Hall of Famer yet although the potential is definitely there. Currently, he has a career WAR of 34.6, and it looks like a little over half of that is for his hitting. If he doesn't pitch any more, he will have to keep putting up some big numbers hitting (especially as a DH) to get his WAR up to the range where he will be likely to get voted in. He certainly has the potential to do it, and he will likely get a lot of consideration even if he's a little low based on the fact he did also pitch for 5 years, but not a lock yet.