The future of Shohei Ohtani

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know. I kind of feel like Ohtani has already done enough on the mound vis-a-vis his card prices. Ruth only pitched as a pitcher for 5 full seasons.

Ohtani will never be Ruth in the box but if he hits 30-40 homers a year for the next four or five years, he'll have hit aver 300 homers before his 35th birthday and have pitched more than 400 innings.

I think he's a unicorn type of player no matter what he does so long as he's decent at one of the skills. Mostly because he'll have already won 2 MVPs as a two-way player (assuming he wins this year).

Earlier in the thread you said "he hasn't done much yet."

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Earlier in the thread you said "he hasn't done much yet."

That comment was about counting stats. I'm still of the opinion he's not a HOFer today. But I'm also of the opinion being a HOFer isn't always necessary to have expensive cards. I meant enough to boost his cards and keep them there. Not enough to get into the HOF tomorrow.

You said if he's only a DH his prices will fall. But I don't agree because I think he's done enough as a pitcher to maintain price. And if he hits 30 to 40 homers a year for the next four or five years, I'm not sure he would have had to pitch too for his cards to be where they're at now. I can't imagine anyone pictured him being a two-way player for 10 more seasons.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

That comment was about counting stats. I'm still of the opinion he's not a HOFer today. But I'm also of the opinion being a HOFer isn't always necessary to have expensive cards. I meant enough to boost his cards and keep them there. Not enough to get into the HOF tomorrow.

You said if he's only a DH his prices will fall. But I don't agree because I think he's done enough as a pitcher to maintain price. And if he hits 30 to 40 homers a year for the next four or five years, I'm not sure he would have had to pitch too for his cards to be where they're at now. I can't imagine anyone pictured him being a two-way player for 10 more seasons.

Hopefully he will pitch again and we won't have to deal with the hypothetical, but I don't know, not ten years, but I think people expected the two way thing to continue for a lot longer than it's gone on to date and if you take that away, to me he loses some of the magic.

[packs]

I don’t know what Tanaka did but he also had a UCL issue and opted not to do surgery. Somehow he managed to be a kind of work horse for the Yankees anyway. I think they found the tear his first year over here too. Maybe there’s an option like that for Ohtani.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don’t know what Tanaka did but he also had a UCL issue and opted not to do surgery. Somehow he managed to be a kind of work horse for the Yankees anyway. I think they found the tear his first year over here too. Maybe there’s an option like that for Ohtani.

Man, when he first came over he was really something. I just looked him up, he's still pitching in Japan.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by packs

I don’t know what Tanaka did but he also had a UCL issue and opted not to do surgery. Somehow he managed to be a kind of work horse for the Yankees anyway. I think they found the tear his first year over here too. Maybe there’s an option like that for Ohtani.

I think it had to do with the nature of Tanaka's tear, where it was located and the rehab work he did around it.

I will also say, that there is zero guarantee that Ohtani is a Hall of Famer. He needs to continue to put up the production on the offensive side of the baseball. I don't think Starting Pitching is a realistic, long term option. Maybe he might be able to compete as a high leverage reliever or closer, but this is his second UCL tear, the body can't handle this much strain. He is human, afterall.

[jayshum]

Ohtani is definitely not a guaranteed Hall of Famer yet although the potential is definitely there. Currently, he has a career WAR of 34.6, and it looks like a little over half of that is for his hitting. If he doesn't pitch any more, he will have to keep putting up some big numbers hitting (especially as a DH) to get his WAR up to the range where he will be likely to get voted in. He certainly has the potential to do it, and he will likely get a lot of consideration even if he's a little low based on the fact he did also pitch for 5 years, but not a lock yet.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Can anyone remember his last home run?