New and Shiny - Market Manipulation

[Fred]

I don't follow modern card sales but I do understand that there are lots of "1 of 1" cards and other shiny offerings that seem to drive the value of the cards up for all sports. Personally, I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards.

What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

For a while there was a Trout card that just seemed to go ballistic. Trout's turning a great player. A few more good years and he can cement himself in as an all time great. But what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping in price. What is the shelf life for high prices on these cards?

Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards? Again, I don't understand paying so much for something that is relatively new and a gimmick that is created by a card manufacturer.

When I think of the distribution of these limited cards, I start thinking about the McDonalds Monopoly disaster that just put a horrible light on how these things are distributed. Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

[bnorth]

My guess is it is no more or less manipulated than vintage.

[Eric72]

...I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards...

You're not alone.


...What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

Yes. Most of the time, the prices will drop regardless of player performance. Newer, shinier, "more extra super special-er" things will come out and capture the short attention span of modern collectors.


...Trout...what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping...

Some people (not me) have been saying Trout's already washed up and won't make the Hall of Fame. Possibly because of this, his cards seemed to drop more than others in 2022.


...Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards?

Yes. I believe it's rampant, especially on modern football and basketball cards. Lucky for us pre-war collectors, there are far fewer "influencers" hyping up (for example) T206 commons.


...Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

In theory, the card manufacturers do. Maybe some of the breakers and hard-core modern collectors, too.

[swarmee]

A lot of different strings to pull on this one.

1) For the most part, I don't believe there is a ton of market manipulation, just crazy irrational exuberance. Yes, it's very hard for any of these cards to retain their value over time. A lot of time it's just straight up gambling.
Take a look at this example:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1542293
Hundreds of different collectors paying hundreds or thousands to get a specific card lot in a break of 100 cases of Bowman Chrome Draft. 95% of those slots will be money losers, with people spending $86 to get $5 worth of cards on the open market in a couple of weeks. And this is completely honest and open, no market manipulation. There just is that much demand for modern prospect cards.

2) Some of the manufacturers seem to be tipping their hands by serial numbering certain boxes within cases and leading breakers to find ones that are "hot" or containing a rare hit. If the boxes in a case are numbered 6,888, 6,889, 6,890, 6,891, 6,892, and 3,503, it's easy to spot the odd man out and determine there's probably something valuable in 3503.

3) Cards like the Kris Bryant 1/1 Superfractor Auto from 2013 Bowman Chrome, which went for $50K or so at its peak, is probably worth $10K or so right now, and Bryant has actually had a pretty good career.
Take a look at this thread if you want to ride a wave of emotions:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=860461

[Johnny630]

It’s not just modern that’s been manipulated...

[BobbyVCP]

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

Bobby, what sorts of cards are you seeing this on?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

[Tabe]

A few thoughts:

1) Mike Trout is already a HOFer and all-time great. 40 homers last year and people saw it as an off-year.

2} there's absolutely market manipulation going on. Does anybody still think those twin $750k Fleer Jordan sales were fully legit?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Tabe

2} there's absolutely market manipulation going on. Does anybody still think those twin $750k Fleer Jordan sales were fully legit?

I didn't address this, because it's not new, shiny, or a manufactured scarcity card. But yes, those were definitely manipulated. That and the fact that a large percentage of PSA/BGS 9-10 86 Fleer Jordans have been trimmed/altered makes them a scammer's paradise already.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I didn't address this, because it's not new, shiny, or a manufactured scarcity card. But yes, those were definitely manipulated. That and the fact that a large percentage of PSA/BGS 9-10 86 Fleer Jordans have been trimmed/altered makes them a scammer's paradise already.

How do you know they were manipulated as opposed to really stupid bids by people with an inelastic demand curve who fell for the hard sell?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How do you know they were manipulated as opposed to really stupid bids by people with an inelastic demand curve who fell for the hard sell?

I believe it was pump and dumped by the youtube personalities like Geoff Wilson and Gary Vee. Yes, the cards got paid for, but they were a result of a vicious cycle of shill bidding over the course of a couple years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I believe it was pump and dumped by the youtube personalities like Geoff Wilson and Gary Vee. Yes, the cards got paid for, but they were a result of a vicious cycle of shill bidding over the course of a couple years.

Ah OK. So real sales, but at prices that were the end result of prior manipulation. I don't understand the whole influencer culture. All I know is that people send me countless youtube videos of guys with beards and tshirts taking about the modern card market.

[todeen]

While the game has changed a little, it doesn't seem to be any different than what I grew up with in the 90s. In the 90s, the new hot items were inserts. Donruss Elite. UD Piece of History 500 HR Club relics. Autos. Some of these were stupid expensive then. I remember reading Beckett as a 12 yo in 1998/1999 looking at top sale prices and believing I'd never see one of those cards let alone have the money to purchase one. Have you seen 90s relic card prices today? They have tumbled from their heyday.

In 1996, Topps did the Mickey Mantle inserts. I bought and bought and bought packs, hand collated the set. But I never pulled a Mantle card. It was stupid.

I also remember trying to obtain a 1989 Upper Deck Griffey RC. I could afford one, but I always wanted to pull one. For as many packs as I bought I should have hit one. But I never did. His RC climbed in value and got to about $150. Then it plummeted to $50 when he started getting injured.

These experiences led me to stop buying modern. The mystique of collecting kind of wore off too.

Prices for packs and boxes have increased due to inflation and demand. But nothing has changed in the modern game. Today there are just different sellers, and different avenues of selling, but the odds remain long of pulling special cards. And just like in the 90s, when you got an insert it often was of a player you didn't care to obtain.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[rjackson44]

The loses on the new stuff is scary. Never understood folks buying cards for 100 k and then selling them for 30 k ,just insane

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by bnorth

My guess is it is no more or less manipulated than vintage.

agreed here, 100%

It's gambling by prospectors. If they do not pan out, then yes it goes down. Modern is somewhat like investing stocks in new companies, if they hit the return is generous and much more growth than vintage in percentage.

Vintage is blue chip stocks (for star players). They have more limited growth in comparison, but also more limited falls. This still doesn't mean they are not vastly manipulated to maintain those values. It has been proven over and over again.

[packs]

Modern is like a hot stock. Most of the time you have to cash in soon after release because there is a window where the player either starts off hot or fades and the prices crash. There are also only so many Trouts. If you wait five or six years you can usually pick up the first bowman’s for reasonable prices. Trea Turner is one guy who is absurdly cheap for the player he is.

[Exhibitman]

Other than as gambling, modern has never made much sense to me. is there market manipulation? Of course there is. Hyping Keston Hiura cards is the essence of manipulation. Generational talents like Jeter and Trout are generational talents.

If you want to gamble on modern, the only thing that makes any sense at all is to put away unopened and wait to see what happens.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If you want to gamble on modern, the only thing that makes any sense at all is to put away unopened and wait to see what happens.

This is not bad advice at all, there's a ton of people that should live by this that throw away money by the boatload.

[Section103]

As far as distribution goes, I will relay a story I know of first hand and experienced with my own eyes and people I know in real life.

I forget the year exactly, but I was working the National card show in Chicago around 2008-2010. You are all familiar with the timing of that show. The person I was working with managed to have 6 out of a limited football rookie card numbered to 10. In August. Before this future Hall of Fame player had played a single down.

This certainly doesnt indicate all companies do this in all cases. But I can tell you with no uncertainty that is not always perfectly random.

[packs]

Are you saying you think specific cards from a product were pulled from packs and sent to one specific person prior to release? That would be pretty difficult for a large scale producer like Topps or Panini to make happen.

What type of place in the hobby would this person occupy that would make a huge company alter production to get a few specific cards to them? And why would they be interested in doing that?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Are you saying you think specific cards from a product were pulled from packs and sent to one specific person prior to release? That would be pretty difficult for a large scale producer like Topps or Panini to make happen.

What type of place in the hobby would this person occupy that would make a huge company alter production to get a few specific cards to them? And why would they be interested in doing that?

Large dealers get special treatment just like in pretty much every business. I have no personal experience with Topps or Panini but I can guarantee Score done it. It is also no big secret Topps has done it for decades, I just have no personal experience with it.

In my experience it was not done before release and it takes very little effort. They just have one person stand there and pull certain cards.

[packs]

Pull them from what? The conveyer? Some kind of pre-release pile? From what I understand the autographed cards are mailed to each individual athlete who then signs and returns them. For this to be done those cards would have to be intercepted when they arrive back to the company and everyone in between would keep it to themself.

That seems like a lot of moving parts to accomplish what in the end? The chase cards sell the product and live breaking would make it obvious the chase cards aren’t in the product, at least in todays world.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Pull them from what? The conveyer? Some kind of pre-release pile? From what I understand the autographed cards are mailed to each individual athlete who then signs and returns them. For this to be done those cards would have to be intercepted when they arrive back to the company and everyone in between would keep it to themself.

That seems like a lot of moving parts to accomplish what in the end? The chase cards sell the product and live breaking would make it obvious the chase cards aren’t in the product, at least in todays world.

You are trying to make a very simple thing seem difficult when it really isn't.

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

You are trying to make a very simple thing seem difficult when it really isn't.

Then it should be easy to explain why a company would be interested in doing that. Panini got a ton of eyes when the Lebron Logoman was pulled. It later sold for 2.4 million dollars, bringing them more attention. It was pulled live on camera in front of an audience of rabid product fans.

What publicity would Panini have gotten if that card ended up in an anonymous shadow dealer's case at the National? How would that benefit the company in any way?

You're talking about a company manipulating it's product and alienating all of the people buying it. And you're saying that's simple and easy but why would a company invite jeopardy like that?

[Section103]

Im not here to suggest every numbered card of every player is unfairly distributed. Far from it. But not every card is an LBJ selling for millions of dollars either. Favors and preferential treatment happens. You can believe that or not.

[packs]

A rookie numbered to 10 of the premier player in the NFL at the time is not an anonymous card. That would be the equivalent to a Bowman 1st Red Auto now. Forums track these kinds of cards obsessively and they often account for all of them.

It would go noticed today. That's why I don't really see it as being a plague to the hobby. If you pulled the Red First Bowman Auto of Jasson Dominguez there is a chance you might just keep it to yourself and hold onto it for later. But there's a better chance you'll talk about it on a message board somewhere or offer it for sale in a large market, adding it to the known population of cards.

[Section103]

Oh I have no doubt that someone if not several people now own those cards because they were privately and slowly offered up for sale. But they were never pulled from a pack and there's no easy way to distinguish between what was pulled from a pack by a random collector and what was not.

Ultimately, I dont disagree with you. There are plenty enough "pull cards" out in distribution to keep the general public happy. But the process is not or at least, "was not" 100% clean. There are way too many ways to skirt the system subtly and individuals will profit from it. Not "retire on a private island" levels of profit, but a nice chunk of change for not a lot of work.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Fred

I don't follow modern card sales but I do understand that there are lots of "1 of 1" cards and other shiny offerings that seem to drive the value of the cards up for all sports. Personally, I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards.

What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

For a while there was a Trout card that just seemed to go ballistic. Trout's turning a great player. A few more good years and he can cement himself in as an all time great. But what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping in price. What is the shelf life for high prices on these cards?

Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards? Again, I don't understand paying so much for something that is relatively new and a gimmick that is created by a card manufacturer.

When I think of the distribution of these limited cards, I start thinking about the McDonalds Monopoly disaster that just put a horrible light on how these things are distributed. Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

I'd say Trout's the same as anybody else. If you correct for the overall rise or fall of the market, the prices of his cards will go up to the extent that he does better than expected and down to the extent that he does worse than expected. If he bats .300 and hits 20 HRs and finishes the 2023 season with a WAR of 3.8 his cards will underperform the market. If he wins another MVP, his cards will outperform the market. That's true for his 1-of-1 cards as well as his base cards and everything in between.

He's already got a better than even chance of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer, so that's already baked into the current prices, but in theory he could still end up having an even better career than current projections would suggest. If he does better for the remainder of his career than he has done so far, he could end up widely seen as the best player since Babe Ruth, in which case buying his cards right now would have been a good move. But that's very unlikely for a player who hasn't appeared in over 140 games in a season since 2016.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Then it should be easy to explain why a company would be interested in doing that. Panini got a ton of eyes when the Lebron Logoman was pulled. It later sold for 2.4 million dollars, bringing them more attention. It was pulled live on camera in front of an audience of rabid product fans.

What publicity would Panini have gotten if that card ended up in an anonymous shadow dealer's case at the National? How would that benefit the company in any way?

You're talking about a company manipulating it's product and alienating all of the people buying it. And you're saying that's simple and easy but why would a company invite jeopardy like that?

I get what you are saying. I feel the same about PSA. All these BS stories about gifting grades don't make sense. Really what would they gain from it? I know I have a PSA 9 card that is accurately graded so why wouldn't all PSA cards be accurately graded. Just a bunch of haters making up stories.

Don't get me started at these supposed altered cards. Why would anybody do that and why would PSA grade them? Again just don't make sense.

[packs]

I don't see the connection between TPG submissions and something like a Topps product release.

[Exhibitman]

There are some inferential mathematical studies of the success rates of certain 'social influencer' breakers at finding significant insert cards that conclude that the likelihood of them actually finding the cards they found at random is practically zero, the suggestion being that they are fed loaded cases as a marketing scheme.

https://forums.collectors.com/discus...pulling-a-scam

I have no personal experience or information on this; frankly, I don't care. But it is interesting to consider just how rigged the casino is, and how we as collectors are asking questions that I never, ever thought I would consider when I started collecting Topps cards in the last Ice Age. Used to pick up a pack every morning on my way to school in Bedrock.

[packs]

The last comment on that thread is the most telling and probably explains a lot of what is being seen as shady. If you buy a case of product you only need to open the first or second boxes of the product to predict where the hits are.

Example: if I bought a case of 2022 Bowman Draft Jumbo I would only need to open the first box to know where every autograph in every other box in the case is. For example, if I open the first box of the case and the autos are in the third pack of each row, I could then theoretically only open those packs in every other box and sell all the rest of the unopened Jumbo packs to collectors under the guise that they "might" be the pack with the autograph, knowing the whole time they won't be.

If you're ordering multiple cases of product they tend to be packed the same way. You'll know with reasonable accuracy that the case hit will be in the 4th box down (making that up) of every case ordered.

Breakers know this too if they're serious case buyers. I will open up a channel to watch a break and the breaker will pull the 2 packs (for example) they know have the autos in them from the stack before even opening the first pack. Because they know where they'll be based on the first box of that case.

Breakers also become familiar with collation. I've watched a ton of videos where the breaker starts freaking out because of the sequence of the first three cards or whatever knowing what is coming. You see it a lot with the 86 Fleer basketball packs. If you see Clark Kellogg in your pack, you've got a good chance of seeing Michael too.

[Carter08]

The thing I didn’t realize is that the super rare 1 of 1s aren’t typically lucky finds in a pack somewhere. The come from buying super expensive steel boxes with 3 cards in them in total. And that’s where people hope to hit the 1 of 1 of Luka as opposed to Rudy Gobert. What’s crazy to me is calling something 1 of 1 because it’s red but you also have a 1 of 1 that is a different color, and then another color, and then another color. I don’t get modern. I barely get vintage lol.

[Exhibitman]

They call it collecting the rainbow. It can get very frustrating when they get to the 1/3, 1/2 and 1/1 cards, for obvious reasons.

[G1911]

The odds that, for specific example, Backyard Breaks pulls what they pull without being fed product from Panini is somewhere around 0%. Some of these influencers just defy the massive odds again and again and get loaded box after loaded box (not just the box with an X type hit, but the big name everyone is trying to pull types). Panini has clearly been marking boxes in some product with the good cards, probably Topps too.

A lot of modern looks great, but there’s a ton of corruption, backroom feeding of hits, and some huge hits straight up never even being packed out at all (like the 3 1/1 Ford’s in Star Wars Stellar a couple years ago - $10K a box and the biggest hits evidently weren’t even packed).

I’m surprised some people still want to believe so much that they throw away math and reason and keep playing this blatantly rigged game and screaming that everything is just fine.

There’s still a ton of fun in modern hobby land if you’re enjoying base and sets and the plethora of design options. Chasing the top .1% of stuff is a rigged game.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

There are some inferential mathematical studies of the success rates of certain 'social influencer' breakers at finding significant insert cards that conclude that the likelihood of them actually finding the cards they found at random is practically zero.... we as collectors are asking questions that I never, ever thought I would consider when I started collecting Topps cards in the last Ice Age. Used to pick up a pack every morning on my way to school in Bedrock.

Originally Posted by packs

The last comment on that thread is the most telling and probably explains a lot of what is being seen as shady. If you buy a case of product you only need to open the first or second boxes of the product to predict where the hits are.

I don't think that the issue is with breakers making hits. They order enough cases to hit impressive inserts. But when one breaker (Backyard Breaks) hits two or three of the most expensive cards of the most significant players in a single year, out of different product, it becomes apparent that they are being fed the best cases. Because statistically, they should have one or zero in a year.

I would think that Fanatics could further heighten demand by making these cards available to the general public. The reason being, I would never enter a break. And because I know I will never hit the best 1/1 because the system is rigged, I choose not to buy boxes. I will buy singles of what I want only.

[packs]

For a breaker to get marked cases the relationship would be breaker spends X money with the manufacturer, so the manufacturer tosses them a bone, right? And the way the breaker benefits from this is a wider audience competing for spots and bidding more for them on their channel, I guess.

But the costs per spot in breaks for products are more or less universal. A specific breaker isn't going to get more per spot for their break than someone else breaking the same product. Or at least that hasn't been my experience and I watch these breaks all the time.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

For a breaker to get marked cases the relationship would be breaker spends X money with the manufacturer, so the manufacturer tosses them a bone, right? And the way the breaker benefits from this is a wider audience competing for spots and bidding more for them on their channel, I guess.

But the costs per spot in breaks for products are more or less universal. A specific breaker isn't going to get more per spot for their break than someone else breaking the same product. Or at least that hasn't been my experience and I watch these breaks all the time.

Or it’s just buddies giving the good stuff to buddies. Panini corporate might not be doing it as actual business practice and standard policy. That it’s happening seems mathematically undeniable, but the mechanics of the perpetrators doing the rigging aren’t known.

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

Or it’s just buddies giving the good stuff to buddies. Panini corporate might not be doing it as actual business practice and standard policy. That it’s happening seems mathematically undeniable, but the mechanics of the perpetrators doing the rigging aren’t known.

A situation like that I can buy into. But the idea that a manufacturer would have this built into their business as standard operating procedures is not.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

A situation like that I can buy into. But the idea that a manufacturer would have this built into their business as standard operating procedures is not.

I’ve seen way too much incredibly shady stuff being done by corporations in my life to have any faith that they would be above this or smarter than this. If I had to wager though, buddies helping buddies is what I would bet is going on, but we don’t have direct evidence of the backend mechanics, just that the astounding hits certain breakers get is impossible to achieve naturally without being fed the true hit cases. Somebody in distribution for some reason is ensuring that the good stuff goes to certain people. Backyard being exhibit A here lately. We can see the fire, but who is starting it with what fire starting device we can’t see as of present.

[packs]

I wouldn't argue that idea.

But on the mathematics side of things; I've bought into enough breaks that it should be mathematical impossible for me to do as badly as I have (haha). But alas, reality is real.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

I wouldn't argue that idea.

But on the mathematics side of things; I've bought into enough breaks that it should be mathematical impossible for me to do as badly as I have (haha). But alas, reality is real.

What are the odds of winning in a group break on average? I have only been in a couple vintage set breaks and the chances of winning or even breaking even in them seemed to be extremely low.

[packs]

Well it depends on product and what you’re looking to spend. Most of the modern breaks are randomized teams. So you bid to win the chance to either spin a wheel with all 30 teams on it or pick a card from a deck (these are the most common ways to draw). If you buy a spot early when there are the most teams left you usually pay the least and might hit the big team. If you wait till all the bad teams are weeded out the prices go up because there are less bad hits.

It’s always luck of the draw because it’s easy to have the best team and not hit. But if you’re willing to spend you can buy into something like a case break and have a decent shot at hitting something. Some sets have better checklists than others too. The Bowman 2022 Draft boxes that just came out sells for big dollars but has a higher number of good teams and good players than usual. A lot of breakers are doing pick your team drafts for those though and setting the price for a specific team because the boxes are so expensive.

Again, if you have the money to spend you can get into the higher priced divisional breaks too and increase your chances of hitting a player you want. You can buy the AL East, for example. For the super high end products it's usually a hit draft where the people buying in draw a number, say 1, and that means they either choose the first card from the box for themselves or get the first card pulled, depending on the break.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by bnorth

What are the odds of winning in a group break on average? I have only been in a couple vintage set breaks and the chances of winning or even breaking even in them seemed to be extremely low.

Very very low. I have been in a bunch. Not impossible. First you need to pull an amazing card. Then you need BCG to give you a 9.5 at least. Not so easy. I've had some beautiful shiny cards that Beckett gave a 7.5.

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

That is great news Bobby, and good for you and your app, and everyone out there using it. I know that regardless of what you do, you can never be 100% perfect and catch each and every possible occasion where sales are false and/or otherwise being manipulated. But it is great to hear that people like yourself, and the companies you own/operate, are trying to implement new and updated procedures and safeguards to fight those working to inappropriately manipulate the card market/hobby. Kudos to you, and wishing you great success in your efforts. I know just from your reputation that your efforts will prove thorough, and fruitful. Be sure to keep us posted on how things are going, and what you and your crew are finding. It is people like you that help to make this hobby better for so many.

And before I start getting crap from some, I don't personally know Bobby, I don't work for Bobby, he's not and never has been a client of mine, and I honestly as said before, have never used his app myself. His reputation speaks a lot for him and his app though, and I am all for anyone looking to help those in this wonderful hobby, and trying to stamp out manipulation and other somewhat shady or questionable activities that seem to cover and affect a large part of this hobby/industry nowadays.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by BobC

That is great news Bobby, and good for you and your app, and everyone out there using it. I know that regardless of what you do, you can never be 100% perfect and catch each and every possible occasion where sales are false and/or otherwise being manipulated. But it is great to hear that people like yourself, and the companies you own/operate, are trying to implement new and updated procedures and safeguards to fight those working to inappropriately manipulate the card market/hobby. Kudos to you, and wishing you great success in your efforts. I know just from your reputation that your efforts will prove thorough, and fruitful. Be sure to keep us posted on how things are going, and what you and your crew are finding. It is people like you that help to make this hobby better for so many.



And before I start getting crap from some, I don't personally know Bobby, I don't work for Bobby, he's not and never has been a client of mine, and I honestly as said before, have never used his app myself. His reputation speaks a lot for him and his app though, and I am all for anyone looking to help those in this wonderful hobby, and trying to stamp out manipulation and other somewhat shady or questionable activities that seem to cover and affect a large part of this hobby/industry nowadays.

TLDR, but great idea, BobbyVCP. I appreciate what you guys are doing.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ah OK. So real sales, but at prices that were the end result of prior manipulation.

I think they were the START of manipulation. The money was in the hundreds of sales that came after.