The trend in Wagner cards

[Peter_Spaeth]

As we've discussed Wagner cards already were soaring to unheard of levels, but even in that context the Memory Lane sale of a PSA 3 Blue M116 for over 50K nevertheless seems astonishing. Do people think it was a one off fluke, or is this sort of pricing sustainable? Part of my question is admittedly driven by self interest as I have each of his M116s in 5 and while I've always thought of them as untouchable, at those prices I'd have to seriously rethink it.

Thoughts?

[raulus]

You could always post them on eBay at those absurd museum prices you love to hate and see if you get any bites.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As we've discussed Wagner cards already were soaring to unheard of levels, but even in that context the Memory Lane sale of a PSA 3 Blue M116 for over 50K nevertheless seems astonishing. Do people think it was a one off fluke, or is this sort of pricing sustainable? Part of my question is admittedly driven by self interest as I have each of his M116s in 5 and while I've always thought of them as untouchable, at those prices I'd have to seriously rethink it.

Thoughts?

Feels like the portrait Wagner cards are drafting off of his T206. While there has always been demand and always will be demand for his cards, the uptick seems like it cannot be sustained. Then again I felt the same way about the 52T Mantle as it started to reach new highs.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Feels like the portrait Wagner cards are drafting off of his T206. While there has always been demand and always will be demand for his cards, the uptick seems like it cannot be sustained. Then again I felt the same way about the 52T Mantle as it started to reach new highs.

Then again, if you had called BS on the Jordan rookie prices two years ago, you would have been absolutely right. Tough to know. But Wagner selling for 20x Johnson or more just seems crazy to me.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Then again, if you had called BS on the Jordan rookie prices two years ago, you would have been absolutely right. Tough to know. But Wagner selling for 20x Johnson or more just seems crazy to me.

Whenever I see a huge bump in price like we are seeing on the Wagners and as you point out the 86 Jordan (however in that case it was 100% manipulation), I feel it is a temporary state but prices have stuck for the 52T Mantle. I think the 33 Ruth also underwent a similar surge in price and believe those have held up too.

All I know is that I would not be a buyer at this point on the Wagners because I can't be. If I held any I would certainly be tempted to sell. If you do not need the money I would not consider selling. If they drop back down to 2020 levels it is a paper "loss". Sure ya might kick yourself for not getting out but presumably they are in your collection because you like them regardless of value.

[53toppscollector]

If you feel the prices are overheated, you can sell the card now. If you really miss it, you can always buy it back. That is tougher to say on cards that are super rare and may not pop up for years, but not for cards that sell more frequently.

[Rhotchkiss]

There are a total of 62 M116 Blue Wagners on the combined PSA/SGC population report. That really is not a huge number, especially considering how many are in collections and not available for sale. By contrast, there are over 2,500, 1952 Topps Mantles on the combined PSA/SGC population report; and I am sure there are many more 52 Topps Mantles than blue M116 Wagners out there not reflected on the pop reports. It seems there are 2-6, 1952 Mantles in every auction.

According to VCP, the average price for a PSA 3, 1952 Topps Mantle is $66,500 (with sales ranging from $50k-$85k). While I acknowledge the 1952 Mantle dwarfs the blue M116 Wagner in importance/cache, is it so odd that a card of Honus Wagner, which is 40 years older and way more scarce, sells for $13k less than the average sales price of a like-graded 1952 Topps mantle?

I understand that does not answer your question, but it’s interesting to consider.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

There are a total of 62 M116 Blue Wagners on the combined PSA/SGC population report. That really is not a huge number, especially considering how many are in collections and not available for sale. By contrast, there are over 2,500, 1952 Topps Mantles on the combined PSA/SGC population report; and I am sure there are many more 52 Topps Mantles than blue M116 Wagners out there not reflected on the pop reports. It seems there are 2-6, 1952 Mantles in every auction.

According to VCP, the average price for a PSA 3, 1952 Topps Mantle is $66,500 (with sales ranging from $50k-$85k). While I acknowledge the 1952 Mantle dwarfs the blue M116 Wagner in importance/cache, is it so odd that a card of Honus Wagner, which is 40 years older and way more scarce, sells for $13k less than the average sales price of a like-graded 1952 Topps mantle?

I understand that does not answer your question, but it’s interesting to consider.

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It’s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

[Brian]

In the perfectly insane world of card collecting in 2023, the prices for the Wagner portraits make perfect sense to me. They have very low pops, and I have actually been surprised at the relative 'undervaluation' of both the M116 and E90-2. Very few of us can have THE card, so why not "settle" for the next best thing, which is, currently, somewhat obtainable (or used to be).

I am biased on this issue, but my prediction is that they will either stabilize or continue to climb. (Note: my name is not Warren Buffett, so caveat emptor).

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Then again, if you had called BS on the Jordan rookie prices two years ago, you would have been absolutely right. Tough to know. But Wagner selling for 20x Johnson or more just seems crazy to me.

Yeah - the Jordan rookie was insane. A simple look at the pop charts told us all that - NOT rare! (shhh, neither is that '80 Topps Henderson rookie - hah)

Re: Wagner, I've had this lovely card since trading for it at the '92 National in Atlanta. Had it graded just a couple of years ago.... prices recently for Authentic and 1.5s makes me very tempted to part with this fella! I still wonder if it's a good thought!

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As we've discussed Wagner cards already were soaring to unheard of levels, but even in that context the Memory Lane sale of a PSA 3 Blue M116 for over 50K nevertheless seems astonishing. Do people think it was a one off fluke, or is this sort of pricing sustainable? Part of my question is admittedly driven by self interest as I have each of his M116s in 5 and while I've always thought of them as untouchable, at those prices I'd have to seriously rethink it.

Thoughts?

Wagners are hot in my opinion. You really can’t go wrong keeping or selling, but I always have said that when the market trend have you thinking of selling a card, the time is probably right to do so.

[theshowandme]

Think about how many cards Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, and even Eddie Collins have by extending their careers into the 1920s

Wagner thus doesn’t have all of those caramel issues and exhibits that other stars have.

The timing of his career plus the T206 make any Wagner that much more in demand. Not enough options to go around.

Here is my lone Wagner which SGC reholdered at the 2023 national

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Think about how many cards Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, and even Eddie Collins have by extending their careers into the 1920s

Wagner thus doesn’t have all of those caramel issues and exhibits that other stars have.

The timing of his career plus the T206 make any Wagner that much more in demand. Not enough options to go around.

...and the fact that the only tobacco card sets that include Wagner are the T200 set (team set), T206 (the word iconic was created because of this card), and the scarce T216 sets, and you have one tough top tier HOF player with relatively limited card options.

Brian

[calvindog]

Someone should overpay me for this one, I can handle the taxes.

[Yoda]

Interesting that the blue Wags has recently outperformed the Cobb. In most sets, I believe, the Cobb fetches a higher price. I have always liked the E94 & E95 Wags and when the the next one comes up for auction, I bet they do well.

[ahmanfan]

Right… unless there is a very compelling use of the funds, I do not advise selling a (historically) rare, appreciating asset just to have less spending power on a similar asset.


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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ahmanfan

Right… unless there is a very compelling use of the funds, I do not advise selling a (historically) rare, appreciating asset just to have less spending power on a similar asset.


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OK I understand that.

[ahmanfan]

I’d like to know the answer for that myself.


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[Webster]

Nicely entertaining thread, Peter.

The 1913 Voskamps Coffee card appears to be missing from the list (could just be my eyes). Great spreadsheet, BTW.

[Brian]

Can there really be only 37 copies of the 1916 M101-4 Sporting News "golfing" Wagner (well, 38 if you include mine, which is, unfortunately, in the original GAI holder from 20 years ago)?

[Delray Vintage]

I am not surprised at growth in Wagner prices. The t-206 has some influence on other Wagners. For example the Tip Top Wagner has about the same population as the T-206 and is a beautiful card but is still available at about 5% cost of the t-206. So not surprising there is room to go up significantly. I see the Heritage Tip Top is already at 100k.

[Vintagedeputy]

Has the updated spreadsheet been posted yet?

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Has the updated spreadsheet been posted yet?

Yes I’ve updated the Excel with the Pinkerton Cabinets and Coffee cards. If any errors or omissions, please advise and I’ll revise further. In the meantime, I’m looking into the M101-4 issues and counts. Thanks and happy collecting!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Yes I’ve updated the Excel with the Pinkerton Cabinets and Coffee cards. If any errors or omissions, please advise and I’ll revise further. In the meantime, I’m looking into the M101-4 issues and counts. Thanks and happy collecting!

Is there a link? I must have missed it.

[molenick]

There is no link but there is a screenshot in post 15 that is updated as new information becomes available.

[Cooper1927]

The authentic pastel M116 in REA looks to be headed north of 10k this weekend.


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[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Cooper1927

The authentic pastel M116 in REA looks to be headed north of 10k this weekend.


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Yup, currently at $11,700. The Colgans PSA 1 is just shy of $2000 with BP, a record. Wags is still hot

[brunswickreeves]

Updated version and a card to accompany the post!

[Cooper1927]

The chart shows 29 for E103 Beckett. They show only 1 on pop report, I think the 29 is the “number” of the card for them.


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[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Cooper1927

The chart shows 29 for E103 Beckett. They show only 1 on pop report, I think the 29 is the “number” of the card for them.


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Good catch! Edited that one and doubled checked/updated other Beckett POPs.

[Cooper1927]

Thank you sir!


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[Aaron Seefeldt]

I found it interesting (puzzling?) that the e106 Wagner batting in Heritage last night sold for more than the e106 Cobb leaning in bat. While it was $120 more for the Wags, I thought the Cobb to be in better condition although I’m biased as I bought the Cobb (both are pictured below). Have we reached the point where Wags outsells Cobb in similar (non Wagner portrait) issues? If so, I’ll take Cobb 10 out of 10 times.

[obcmac]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

I found it interesting (puzzling?) that the e106 Wagner batting in Heritage last night sold for more than the e106 Cobb leaning in bat. While it was $120 more for the Wags, I thought the Cobb to be in better condition although I’m biased as I bought the Cobb (both are pictured below). Have we reached the point where Wags outsells Cobb in similar (non Wagner portrait) issues? If so, I’ll take Cobb 10 out of 10 times.

Well, I needed the Wagner for my set, but not the Cobb...so I'm partially to blame. Still lost it though.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

I found it interesting (puzzling?) that the e106 Wagner batting in Heritage last night sold for more than the e106 Cobb leaning in bat. While it was $120 more for the Wags, I thought the Cobb to be in better condition although I’m biased as I bought the Cobb (both are pictured below). Have we reached the point where Wags outsells Cobb in similar (non Wagner portrait) issues? If so, I’ll take Cobb 10 out of 10 times.

Besides the crease, Cobby has a nice bright look to it. Congrats!
.

[BeanTown]

Aaron, very nice Cobb and Congrats. I was thinking the same thing on the Novelty Cutlery postcards, where the Wagner went higher than the Cobb.

[toothcutter]

m116 sporting life blue Wagz going strong in REA...

[Cooper1927]

I’m waiting to see what happens in overtime. A lot of them have shot up in extended bidding.


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[Cooper1927]

Seems the market keeps booming in Wagner’s - especially portraits. Any additional insights?


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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Cooper1927

Seems the market keeps booming in Wagner’s - especially portraits. Any additional insights?


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My insight is that I would probably sell mine now if it weren't for taxes.

[sb1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

My insight is that I would probably sell mine now if it weren't for taxes.

Very true, the cost of exiting in the collectible category is a big hit to the pocket.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by sb1

Very true, the cost of exiting in the collectible category is a big hit to the pocket.

To me it beats taking a loss on an item. Gladly...well maybe not gladly but willing to pay taxes on a gain over taking less than I paid. Even after taxes, we still get to keep a majority of the gain.

Signed,
Goodie goodie

[Peter_Spaeth]

To be more accurate, what I meant to say was that after taking taxes into account, the profit is not large enough to entice me to sell. As Lorewalker says, it wouldn't really be a hit to the pocket, it would still be a nice gain.

[bandrus1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

My insight is that I would probably sell mine now if it weren't for taxes.

you dont have to be a goodie goodie... you can get cash for that at the national

[Exhibitman]

The effort to purchase a Wagner nowadays is Wagnerian.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by bandrus1

you dont have to be a goodie goodie... you can get cash for that at the national

And then you have to transport and launder the cash. If you just deposit it into your account, there will be a report generated and the authorities may want to have a word, and you better have reported the income when they come knocking. "Any time you try a decent crime, you got fifty ways you're gonna f**k up. If you think of twenty-five of them, then you're a genius - and you ain't no genius." Body Heat, 1981. The algebra of deterrence at work here. Avoiding a bit of capital gains tax is not worth risking a professional license (Peter is a lawyer) and possibly one's liberty. It also isn't being a goodie-goodie. It is being a good citizen. "Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society"--Oliver Wendell Holmes, Compania General De Tabacos De Filipinas v. Collector of Internal Revenue, 275 U.S. 87, 100, dissenting opinion, November 21, 1927.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

And then you have to transport and launder the cash. If you just deposit it into your account, there will be a report generated and the authorities may want to have a word, and you better have reported the income when they come knocking. "Any time you try a decent crime, you got fifty ways you're gonna f**k up. If you think of twenty-five of them, then you're a genius - and you ain't no genius." Body Heat, 1981. The algebra of deterrence at work here. Avoiding a bit of capital gains tax is not worth risking a professional license (Peter is a lawyer) and possibly one's liberty. It also isn't being a goodie-goodie. It is being a good citizen. "Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society"--Oliver Wendell Holmes, Compania General De Tabacos De Filipinas v. Collector of Internal Revenue, 275 U.S. 87, 100, dissenting opinion, November 21, 1927.

Bonus pro tip:

If you're going to do something illegal, then best practices are not to post about it in a public online forum.

[Kco]

Originally Posted by bandrus1

you dont have to be a goodie goodie... you can get cash for that at the national

1. if you have good record keeping you will pay only on profit which is pocketed.
2. Did you sell other items for a loss at any point to offset any profit gain?
3. If used to trade up or into something bigger you can get around capital gains altogrether if you don't take an outright cash out, depending on how you complete the transaction.

For example if you consign it to an AH, and utilize the final amount it sells for as a credit towards another purchase on that auction, you will not have to pay taxex on the sale.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Kco

1. if you have good record keeping you will pay only on profit which is pocketed.
2. Did you sell other items for a loss at any point to offset any profit gain?
3. If used to trade up or into something bigger you can get around capital gains altogrether if you don't take an outright cash out, depending on how you complete the transaction.

For example if you consign it to an AH, and utilize the final amount it sells for as a credit towards another purchase on that auction, you will not have to pay taxex on the sale.

I thought a collector is not supposed to offset losses.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Kco

3. If used to trade up or into something bigger you can get around capital gains altogrether if you don't take an outright cash out, depending on how you complete the transaction.

For example if you consign it to an AH, and utilize the final amount it sells for as a credit towards another purchase on that auction, you will not have to pay taxex on the sale.

As Peter notes, this used to be true, but is no longer true. 1031 exchanges, also known as like kind exchanges used to be applicable to all sorts of assets, including cardboard. Beginning with the 2017 tax reform, only real estate qualifies for 1031 exchanges.

So you can no longer trade up by using sales proceeds to buy something else, and avoid tax on the gain.

I mean, I guess you can. I'm not your mother, and no one is going to stop you from doing it. You're just breaking the law, because you have tax due that you're not paying, and if they catch you then it will not be fun when you get to pay the back tax, plus interest, plus penalties.