The trend in Wagner cards

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Feels like the portrait Wagner cards are drafting off of his T206. While there has always been demand and always will be demand for his cards, the uptick seems like it cannot be sustained. Then again I felt the same way about the 52T Mantle as it started to reach new highs.

Then again, if you had called BS on the Jordan rookie prices two years ago, you would have been absolutely right. Tough to know. But Wagner selling for 20x Johnson or more just seems crazy to me.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Then again, if you had called BS on the Jordan rookie prices two years ago, you would have been absolutely right. Tough to know. But Wagner selling for 20x Johnson or more just seems crazy to me.

Whenever I see a huge bump in price like we are seeing on the Wagners and as you point out the 86 Jordan (however in that case it was 100% manipulation), I feel it is a temporary state but prices have stuck for the 52T Mantle. I think the 33 Ruth also underwent a similar surge in price and believe those have held up too.

All I know is that I would not be a buyer at this point on the Wagners because I can't be. If I held any I would certainly be tempted to sell. If you do not need the money I would not consider selling. If they drop back down to 2020 levels it is a paper "loss". Sure ya might kick yourself for not getting out but presumably they are in your collection because you like them regardless of value.

[53toppscollector]

If you feel the prices are overheated, you can sell the card now. If you really miss it, you can always buy it back. That is tougher to say on cards that are super rare and may not pop up for years, but not for cards that sell more frequently.

[Rhotchkiss]

There are a total of 62 M116 Blue Wagners on the combined PSA/SGC population report. That really is not a huge number, especially considering how many are in collections and not available for sale. By contrast, there are over 2,500, 1952 Topps Mantles on the combined PSA/SGC population report; and I am sure there are many more 52 Topps Mantles than blue M116 Wagners out there not reflected on the pop reports. It seems there are 2-6, 1952 Mantles in every auction.

According to VCP, the average price for a PSA 3, 1952 Topps Mantle is $66,500 (with sales ranging from $50k-$85k). While I acknowledge the 1952 Mantle dwarfs the blue M116 Wagner in importance/cache, is it so odd that a card of Honus Wagner, which is 40 years older and way more scarce, sells for $13k less than the average sales price of a like-graded 1952 Topps mantle?

I understand that does not answer your question, but it’s interesting to consider.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

There are a total of 62 M116 Blue Wagners on the combined PSA/SGC population report. That really is not a huge number, especially considering how many are in collections and not available for sale. By contrast, there are over 2,500, 1952 Topps Mantles on the combined PSA/SGC population report; and I am sure there are many more 52 Topps Mantles than blue M116 Wagners out there not reflected on the pop reports. It seems there are 2-6, 1952 Mantles in every auction.

According to VCP, the average price for a PSA 3, 1952 Topps Mantle is $66,500 (with sales ranging from $50k-$85k). While I acknowledge the 1952 Mantle dwarfs the blue M116 Wagner in importance/cache, is it so odd that a card of Honus Wagner, which is 40 years older and way more scarce, sells for $13k less than the average sales price of a like-graded 1952 Topps mantle?

I understand that does not answer your question, but it’s interesting to consider.

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It’s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It’s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

Ryan when you put it that way, my initial reaction is I would rather have 70K+ in more Ruth cards, especially as I had the good fortune to also buy a pastel Wagner many years ago. Appreciate everyone's thoughts.

[gabrinus]

IMHO it's Trobba pumping the prices...Jerry

[DeanH3]

The price surge looks to be affecting other issues as well. Seems like Wagner E-cards are experiencing healthy increases as well. I'm curious as what a really scarce issue like Nadja, Croft's Cocoa or Croft's Candy would fetch these days.

[Brian]

In the perfectly insane world of card collecting in 2023, the prices for the Wagner portraits make perfect sense to me. They have very low pops, and I have actually been surprised at the relative 'undervaluation' of both the M116 and E90-2. Very few of us can have THE card, so why not "settle" for the next best thing, which is, currently, somewhat obtainable (or used to be).

I am biased on this issue, but my prediction is that they will either stabilize or continue to climb. (Note: my name is not Warren Buffett, so caveat emptor).

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Then again, if you had called BS on the Jordan rookie prices two years ago, you would have been absolutely right. Tough to know. But Wagner selling for 20x Johnson or more just seems crazy to me.

Yeah - the Jordan rookie was insane. A simple look at the pop charts told us all that - NOT rare! (shhh, neither is that '80 Topps Henderson rookie - hah)

Re: Wagner, I've had this lovely card since trading for it at the '92 National in Atlanta. Had it graded just a couple of years ago.... prices recently for Authentic and 1.5s makes me very tempted to part with this fella! I still wonder if it's a good thought!