National should be really interesting

[Snapolit1]

Seems like the National is going to hit this year at a time of major economic uncertainty. Lots of younger people under 30 probably have not lived through something like this before. Crypto and NFT guys being slaughtered. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Sellers looking for last year's prices on most stuff are going to be whistling in the dark. Modern "rarities" like Trout etc. have dropped big time. Will be real interesting to see if a lot of valuable prewar stuff changes hands or whether this trip is going to more like a nice museum tour among old friends.

[Johnny630]

The problem is the good stuff is going to go deep under....the people that have it won’t sell in this upcoming, notice I said upcoming, we haven’t gotten there yet market. They will have in their minds that it was worth x amount in mid 2020-early 2022 mentality. I can see the vintage market as slightly lower but mostly stagnate with little to no change over the next few years. The past two years of growth were ridiculous and unsustainable to continue.

Hold on tight.

It’s never as good as it seems and it’s never as bad as it seems.

[Exhibitman]

The rarest stuff and the bargains will all be gone before the show opens to the public.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

If you think about the supply and demand situation, if people hold the rarities for fear of a down market, that inhibits supply which may keep prices up. It's when the market gets flooded with people who can't, or don't want to, hold anymore that prices will drop.

Pre War is usually pretty recession resistant. New stuff typically doesn't fair well. We'll see what happens this time around if things keep going south economically.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Yep, people who can afford to tuck their good stuff away may end up doing so in hopes of a future upward swing, but that may not always be the most sound of decisions.

I haven't found anything good at a National since 2007. It's either a dusty museum that really needs a change of exhibits or worthless junk pile. The interesting stuff is at the auction house booths, but much of that is rehashed material as well. We can look at that stuff on their websites from the comfort of home.

Haven't attended since 2018 and will hopefully never do so again.

[bnorth]

I have never been to one but hope to some day. I have very little interest in going there to buy. I would just like to go look at all the super cool stuff.

I am not sure if I can give up what the game used item is but there will be one of the coolest most insanely rare items in baseball history being displayed there this year. It is easily a 7 figure item.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BillyCox3

I haven't found anything good at a National since 2007. It's either a dusty museum that really needs a change of exhibits or worthless junk pile. The interesting stuff is at the auction house booths, but much of that is rehashed material as well. We can look at that stuff on their websites from the comfort of home.

Haven't attended since 2018 and will hopefully never do so again.

Wow, that is so not my experience. I was at 1991, 1996, and every show from 2004-2019. Here's the thing: it works only if you work it. I spend all day, every day, dealer opening until the end, relentlessly digging through piles of stuff, looking at countless thousands of cards a day, etc. Lunch? That's for wimps. Socializing? Plenty of time for that after dinner. I was last at the 2019 show and off the top of my head, the first day alone, I found a Buchner Anson, a 1950 Sylvan Sweets Jackie Robinson, an Exhibit Appling with a Holloway Black Cow Sucker back, a 1947 Tip Top Wagner, a Star Cal Rosen I'd been chasing for years, and a whole bunch of other great stuff. I finished my run of Koufax Bell Brand cards too with a sweet 1958 a bit later in the week, made a trade for a cabinet card of a favorite boxer of mine, even picked up a beautiful run of 1972 Cocoa Puffs Harlem Globetrotters for that set. The only time I've ever come away with virtually nothing was the last time in AC. That show flat-out sucked. About the only highlight there was meeting Riddick Bowe




Even though it is AC, i wish I could go this year but family and personal issues just make it impossible for me to pull it off.

[gonefishin]

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

Bingo here. Die hards or people who planned months ago will still go. But the causual collector or last minute ones... I don't think so.

Also, for ones that are going, how much are they now spending?

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

This is why the National being in Chicago every other year is so practical. AC is in my backyard, so I'm going. But for the same reason you aren't attending the show on the East Coast is why I'd never go to a National on the West Coast - never! I may be persuaded to attend if it were ever in Las Vegas, that's about it. In fact, even if I were spotted the airline tickets, I wouldn't head to the other coast - I can get through the show in 2 days so not sure if a trip across the country for 2 days would be worth it to me personally.

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems like the National is going to hit this year at a time of major economic uncertainty. Lots of younger people under 30 probably have not lived through something like this before. Crypto and NFT guys being slaughtered. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Sellers looking for last year's prices on most stuff are going to be whistling in the dark. Modern "rarities" like Trout etc. have dropped big time. Will be real interesting to see if a lot of valuable prewar stuff changes hands or whether this trip is going to more like a nice museum tour among old friends.

Me and steve will get there early and sneak in thru the back. And we will have 10k between us . Ok sorry 5 k lol

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Me and steve will get there early and sneak in thru the back. And we will have 10k between us . Ok sorry 5 k lol

I am bringing a bag of bitcoins.

[Keith H. Thompson]

is complete without someone saying that, sure we go to socialize, ogle some big time stuff, have dinner with big time spenders, but also because there is the chance that you might be able to buy something that you might not have known you even wanted had you not seen it. This can happen at any card show, of course, but the National brings out the best with some dealers. I know I dropped 5K on a Players League cabinet card of Sam Thompson (identified only as "Malarial Thompson") which I otherwise would have missed.

[Schlesinj]

East Coast bias question. Has anyone created a demographic of collectors and location? Is it bigger on the East Coast?

[bounce]

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by bounce

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

I'm glad you said this, you're telling it like it is, bottom line.

Great Comments

[maj78]

Originally Posted by bounce

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

Great comments as the above poster said. I'm in my mid 40s and collect mostly vintage but have a younger son so I dabble in modern from time to time. I can 100% confirm your comments regarding "modern" kids beginning to look towards vintage. Lately I have been asked about a few vintage cards I have for sale by kids that I know for a fact are in their early 20s. That has never happened in the past. It remains to be seen if these younger people will stick around for vintage collecting but, for the time being, this could be a big reason why vintage doesn't suffer some of the price drops with seen with modern.

[Steve_NY]

About a year ago, I visited a local show and there was only one dealer selling vintage but I recently visited the same show and there were now six booths which were completely selling vintage and probably another 6 to 8 booths selling some vintage cards. I believe the return to vintage is getting much stronger daily. But I only sell vintage and have never had a slow down ever but I only set up once a year at the National.

This year's National should be mobbed and if you are really looking for really rare items, you should visit the show sometime between Weds. and Friday. By Saturday the rarest of the rare will be long gone unless they are over-priced. In fact, I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I will NOT run out of rare items to showcase. So I guess someone will infer that i am over-priced. But this is my once-a -year chance to sell my collectibles. Many buyers take pictures of my display and post them on Facebook, etc. and refer to my display as a "museum" so I work hard to keep everyone happy.

I will be bringing hundreds of T206's and for the first time in ten+ years, my T205 set is again for sale. But it is raw ungraded as are most of my display items. But as I sell items I will replace them in my 10 showcases with more rare items. I can do that all week. Believe me.

So you can listen to those who try to convince you to pass this year in AC, and wait for Chicago, or you can come this year (and next) and expect to find an outstanding display of sports collectibles and more this year.

Steve_NY

[Snapolit1]

Yes, in the coming weeks we will deal with no shortage of messages about how no one in their right mind would go to a National in Atlantic City . . . and if it doesn't break records for attendance I will be floored.

If anyone planning to attend from outside the area has any questions on logistics, etc., feel free to DM me. I know AC very well and am down there 6-7 times a year.

Originally Posted by Steve_NY

About a year ago, I visited a local show and there was only one dealer selling vintage but I recently visited the same show and there were now six booths which were completely selling vintage and probably another 6 to 8 booths selling some vintage cards. I believe the return to vintage is getting much stronger daily. But I only sell vintage and have never had a slow down ever but I only set up once a year at the National.

This year's National should be mobbed and if you are really looking for really rare items, you should visit the show sometime between Weds. and Friday. By Saturday the rarest of the rare will be long gone unless they are over-priced. In fact, I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I will NOT run out of rare items to showcase. So I guess someone will infer that i am over-priced. But this is my once-a -year chance to sell my collectibles. Many buyers take pictures of my display and post them on Facebook, etc. and refer to my display as a "museum" so I work hard to keep everyone happy.

I will be bringing hundreds of T206's and for the first time in ten+ years, my T205 set is again for sale. But it is raw ungraded as are most of my display items. But as I sell items I will replace them in my 10 showcases with more rare items. I can do that all week. Believe me.

So you can listen to those who try to convince you to pass this year in AC, and wait for Chicago, or you can come this year (and next) and expect to find an outstanding display of sports collectibles and more this year.

Steve_NY

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by bounce

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

I am not sure what cards or issues you are referring to when you write nice looking vintage--that is pretty vague but I think we are all seeing nice looking as well as not so nice looking vintage as coming down in price. Whether or not any dealer who is in possession of this type of stuff needs to sell or not, if they want to sell, they might not get their price unless their price reflects the adjustment we are seeing pretty much across the board.

Everyone who attends a National (as a buyer or as a seller) is anticipating and intending to do business. It is a lot of effort to simply go to set up and show off your stuff. That can be done without leaving your home or office.

[Tony Gordon]

Looking forward to the National. I have attended most of the Chicago shows but this will be my first in Atlantic City. I sell online and at local shows and have always found that the National is the easiest place to sell cards, regardless of what is going on with the economy or the hobby. The National is a unique event and is always a good time. If you don't like card shows and crowds, the National is not the place for you. If you love card shows and don't mind crowds, the National is heaven on Earth. I absolutely love it. Though, you guys have me a little worried about the food...

[Johnny630]

I would guess for a regular booth at the National for the week is 1400-1500 bucks plus add on meal lodging for the week and travel. I estimate a easy 3,000k before your sell one card. I don’t know to many dealers who are just going to come for show and not expect to make money…idk anymore lol

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Tony Gordon

Looking forward to the National. I have attended most of the Chicago shows but this will be my first in Atlantic City. I sell online and at local shows and have always found that the National is the easiest place to sell cards, regardless of what is going on with the economy or the hobby. The National is a unique event and is always a good time. If you don't like card shows and crowds, the National is not the place for you. If you love card shows and don't mind crowds, the National is heaven on Earth. I absolutely love it. Though, you guys have me a little worried about the food...

Directly across from the convention center is a bar called the Tun Tavern. Like a 100 feet across a street if I recall correctly. Good place for a lunch break for a cold pint and some good bar food. Highly recommendation. I wouldn't eat the the convention center. No sir.

https://www.tuntavern.com/

[bounce]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I am not sure what cards or issues you are referring to when you write nice looking vintage--that is pretty vague but I think we are all seeing nice looking as well as not so nice looking vintage as coming down in price. Whether or not any dealer who is in possession of this type of stuff needs to sell or not, if they want to sell, they might not get their price unless their price reflects the adjustment we are seeing pretty much across the board.

Everyone who attends a National (as a buyer or as a seller) is anticipating and intending to do business. It is a lot of effort to simply go to set up and show off your stuff. That can be done without leaving your home or office.

When I say "nice looking vintage" I mean centered - really centered not 60/40 or 70/30 - no obtrusive creases, no stains, cards with strong if not great color and registration. Cards that stop you when you walk by the case.

Please share where you're seeing this stuff come down in price because I'm obviously not looking in the right places. Eye appeal continues to be the driving force on prices across the board.

Any graded T206 Cobb in any pose, PSA 3-4-5 of other T206 HOFers (especially portraits), heck even "authentic" Planks and others continue to go up when auctioned, ANY Cracker Jacks (not just HOFers), Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs. 1950s RCs may have come down some from the peak but the nice ones, like truly centered 1954 Aarons and 1955 Clementes, all pretty difficult to locate and auction prices still reflect very strong interest from PSA 5 to PSA 8. 1952 Mantles - there are no "deals" on these any more (if there ever really were).

I don't know what vintage you see that's slipping, maybe the borderline off center stuff and PSA 4s and less from the 1950s/1960s, but solid stuff gets solid bids and it's harder than ever to find. I know because I collect graded sets from these years, and I'm adding cards much slower than I have in the past and I'm having to pay more than I ever have. That's true at every show I've been to in the past year and it's going to be true in AC.

And not everyone who goes to the National is there strictly for commerce - there are lots of people there for the autographs, some people are there for giveaways, some are there to just experience it.

Here's another tip - if you're just there for the money and the commerce, you're actually going to "miss" the show entirely.

[rjackson44]

cracker jacks insane