National should be really interesting
 

Seems like the National is going to hit this year at a time of major economic uncertainty. Lots of younger people under 30 probably have not lived through something like this before. Crypto and NFT guys being slaughtered. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Sellers looking for last year's prices on most stuff are going to be whistling in the dark. Modern "rarities" like Trout etc. have dropped big time. Will be real interesting to see if a lot of valuable prewar stuff changes hands or whether this trip is going to more like a nice museum tour among old friends.

The problem is the good stuff is going to go deep under....the people that have it won’t sell in this upcoming, notice I said upcoming, we haven’t gotten there yet market. They will have in their minds that it was worth x amount in mid 2020-early 2022 mentality. I can see the vintage market as slightly lower but mostly stagnate with little to no change over the next few years. The past two years of growth were ridiculous and unsustainable to continue.

Hold on tight.

It’s never as good as it seems and it’s never as bad as it seems.

The rarest stuff and the bargains will all be gone before the show opens to the public.

If you think about the supply and demand situation, if people hold the rarities for fear of a down market, that inhibits supply which may keep prices up. It's when the market gets flooded with people who can't, or don't want to, hold anymore that prices will drop.

Pre War is usually pretty recession resistant. New stuff typically doesn't fair well. We'll see what happens this time around if things keep going south economically.

Yep, people who can afford to tuck their good stuff away may end up doing so in hopes of a future upward swing, but that may not always be the most sound of decisions.

I haven't found anything good at a National since 2007. It's either a dusty museum that really needs a change of exhibits or worthless junk pile. The interesting stuff is at the auction house booths, but much of that is rehashed material as well. We can look at that stuff on their websites from the comfort of home.

Haven't attended since 2018 and will hopefully never do so again.

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

I have never been to one but hope to some day. I have very little interest in going there to buy. I would just like to go look at all the super cool stuff.

I am not sure if I can give up what the game used item is but there will be one of the coolest most insanely rare items in baseball history being displayed there this year. It is easily a 7 figure item.

I think that it will be interesting to see when/if some of the folks that bought at the peak start to panic sell. If/when they do, I think there could be a flood of sellers all trying to sell before the retreat in prices gets too drastic. I think, like most, that things like Mantle rookies will not see much of a retreat. But I would think that a lot of the ultra modern shiny stuff, plus some of the tangential stuff like 1989-1990 Fleer basketball, that saw huge price increases (at least on a percentage basis) will plummet for the foreseeable future. If that occurs, I think we will see an absolute onslaught of material coming up for sale, and prices will naturally plunge. People hoping for prices to remain relatively high better hope that people holding that product hold on to it and don't try to dump it to salvage some of their money.

Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home.

kevin

Bingo here. Die hards or people who planned months ago will still go. But the causual collector or last minute ones... I don't think so.

Also, for ones that are going, how much are they now spending?

Well said, Kevin.

More power to you and everyone else who still manages to recapture even a fraction of the excitement that was felt when going to card shows as younger people. I'd give anything to feel that way again, but it just hasn't felt the same for over 30 years.

Me and steve will get there early and sneak in thru the back. And we will have 10k between us . Ok sorry 5 k lol

Agree completely. It's a very fun time. Even if you land nothing of great importance, it's a place to celebrate the hobby. Is it the best place to get a good price on something. Uh, no. But a great place to see great eye candy and some of the faces of actual human beings in the hobby.

Right on!
 

QUOTE=tulsaboy;2234803]I think that it will be interesting to see when/if some of the folks that bought at the peak start to panic sell. If/when they do, I think there could be a flood of sellers all trying to sell before the retreat in prices gets too drastic. I think, like most, that things like Mantle rookies will not see much of a retreat. But I would think that a lot of the ultra modern shiny stuff, plus some of the tangential stuff like 1989-1990 Fleer basketball, that saw huge price increases (at least on a percentage basis) will plummet for the foreseeable future. If that occurs, I think we will see an absolute onslaught of material coming up for sale, and prices will naturally plunge. People hoping for prices to remain relatively high better hope that people holding that product hold on to it and don't try to dump it to salvage some of their money.

Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home.

kevin[/QUOTE]

Absolutely!

Like I've been saying for a few years, the novelty of attending the National is over. It's really just a large social meetup nowadays. Attachment 521341

I am bringing a bag of bitcoins.

.

I dunno, a large social meet up is pretty novel now-a-days!

No mention of the National
 

is complete without someone saying that, sure we go to socialize, ogle some big time stuff, have dinner with big time spenders, but also because there is the chance that you might be able to buy something that you might not have known you even wanted had you not seen it. This can happen at any card show, of course, but the National brings out the best with some dealers. I know I dropped 5K on a Players League cabinet card of Sam Thompson (identified only as "Malarial Thompson") which I otherwise would have missed.

Getting to the National.
 

I am attending my first National this year. Can't wait! I am looking for advice or opinions on the best way/options to get to the convention center. Is parking plentiful? should I Uber? Park out of town and ride the train? I know it's been awhile since the show has been in Atlantic City. Just really looking for the best option.


Thanks
RM4

You know, I like hearing some of the comments on this site. I don't say too much too often, but this time, I will make an exception. The card market hasn't changed much since the covid. Many collectors that I know would rather put their investments in cards than in the bank or in stocks. The events happening now won't change too much, except for transportation. Doing pre war cards for many years, I have seen these cards level off, but not taking a dive and that's since the 80'S. As a dealer, I carry a large amount of t206 cards mostly in PSA 6's. I have set up at the last 5 Nationals. I do not send cards to auction houses, so they are available privately or at a few card shows that I do. With the National 5 weeks away, it is not a good idea to throw the National under the bus because of a bad experience or two. In that big room, there are some great cards available and there are some dealers out there that will work with customers so you can get a fair sale. Some dealers will raise their cost a little bit to cover their tables and hotel. Even if you don't buy anything, the National runs drawings and games for the kids. As a collector, you can pick up some advice from a dealer or even a business card. It's a fun 5 days for all.

Absolutely![/QUOTE]

+1 Agreed and looking forward to seeing as many people as possible from this forum that I never met

Well said Bill. I know I am excited for the National. I know the economy is rough right now. I expect to have plenty of sales and also bringing plenty of cash to buy. And who knows,maybe Bill will sell me his psa 6 Ty Cobb!!

Wow, that is so not my experience. I was at 1991, 1996, and every show from 2004-2019. Here's the thing: it works only if you work it. I spend all day, every day, dealer opening until the end, relentlessly digging through piles of stuff, looking at countless thousands of cards a day, etc. Lunch? That's for wimps. Socializing? Plenty of time for that after dinner. I was last at the 2019 show and off the top of my head, the first day alone, I found a Buchner Anson, a 1950 Sylvan Sweets Jackie Robinson, an Exhibit Appling with a Holloway Black Cow Sucker back, a 1947 Tip Top Wagner, a Star Cal Rosen I'd been chasing for years, and a whole bunch of other great stuff. I finished my run of Koufax Bell Brand cards too with a sweet 1958 a bit later in the week, made a trade for a cabinet card of a favorite boxer of mine, even picked up a beautiful run of 1972 Cocoa Puffs Harlem Globetrotters for that set. The only time I've ever come away with virtually nothing was the last time in AC. That show flat-out sucked. About the only highlight there was meeting Riddick Bowe

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ize/Bowe_1.jpg
https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...d%20ticket.jpg

Even though it is AC, i wish I could go this year but family and personal issues just make it impossible for me to pull it off.

Scot, I think a lot of this depends on if/where you are staying and if you're planning to meet up with anyone after the show to eat/socialize. Personally, I'm staying in the boardwalk area as I feel it gives me the best options to just leave the car where it is, run in the morning, walk to the show, and socialize afterwards. The convention center is just over a half mile (15 min) walk from the boardwalk; just be smart about the path you take, times you're going and, mingle with a group which shouldn't be too hard. Parking at the convention center seems pretty straight forward if you're coming from the AC Expressway and just going to the show. The convention center has a train stop for NJ transit if you want to park outside and take the train in. If you stay in the Borgata area, definitely Uber or drive.

national
 

I enjoy the detailed recaps of the guys who go and report back at end of day

AC has a lot of taxis and Ubers. If you stagger out of a hotel at 1am and want to go somewhere else, call yourself a car. I’ve foolishly walked the streets of AC late night and it’s not for the feint of heart.
I’ve only trained into AC once from Philly. Took too long and schedule not great. Prob not a great idea.
Plenty of hotels 15-20 minutes out of AC if you look around.
There are a number of high rise buildings on the boardwalk that are condos that are rented out. Never stayed there but see them in expedia. Prob an acceptable choice if you are not expecting luxury accommodations.
Galloway is a town 15 min away that seems to have decent cheaper options.




QUOTE=x2drich2000;2234947]Scot, I think a lot of this depends on if/where you are staying and if you're planning to meet up with anyone after the show to eat/socialize. Personally, I'm staying in the boardwalk area as I feel it gives me the best options to just leave the car where it is, run in the morning, walk to the show, and socialize afterwards. The convention center is just over a half mile (15 min) walk from the boardwalk; just be smart about the path you take, times you're going and, mingle with a group which shouldn't be too hard. Parking at the convention center seems pretty straight forward if you're coming from the AC Expressway and just going to the show. The convention center has a train stop for NJ transit if you want to park outside and take the train in. If you stay in the Borgata area, definitely Uber or drive.[/QUOTE]

it comes down to how serious you are about selling. You can put a sticker for any price you want, but no way are buyers paying 2021 prices. Just look at the B/S/T - a few months ago most of the cards listed would have been sold in 24 hours.

Anyone paying thousands of dollars for cardboard was likely doing so with some eye on their overall paper net worth. The entire purpose of the Fed crashing the economy is stop people from spending on that basis.


I expect the 2nd tier hall of famers to fall of a cliff.

I have been going to the National only when I can obtain free ticket and spend my time picking up freebies only.

I have a couple of cards I wouldn't sell even if I lived under a bridge and was hungry.

I've set up a booth at 38 Nationals, and for some reason, I still look forward to the annual event. Over the years, I set up at over 1,000 shows, but now I just set up once a year at the National.

Many of us "old-time dealers" put alot of thought into setting up for the show. We want to showcase what collectors want to see and maybe buy. I actually started preparing last week for the big event.

I have watched the market on recent modern cards, but don't expect to find anything newer than from 1975 at my booth. In fact, I have prepared a display that showcases the early 1900s to the late 1960s and early 1970s.

The National is definitely the premier sports collector show of the year. Where can you find that number of booths (including corporate sponsors) at any other show?

BUT I always hear the same buzz every year that there are so many over-priced collectibles. Just pass those sellers by and look for the rest of us who are always willing to negotiate. In fact, every item in my booth is now priced for sale with a price stated on it and negotiations can get you a sale at around 85 to 90 percent of my for sale price.

Although, I do get insulted when someone offers me 30 to 50 percent of my for sale price. That usually signals an end to our negotiations.

If you come to the show, just have fun, and get to see all of the booths if you can. It's not very difficult to systematically keep track of which booths you have visited, and possibly want to return to.

Enjoy.

Steve

Steve - If I go to the National, where do you want to meet up for dinner one night ? Attachment 521710Attachment 521710Attachment 521710

How the hell are you and I'd love to catch up over lunch or dinner at AC

If I go, of course, that is a given Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745Attachment 521745

Yesterday went to Woodbridge nj card show packed to where you could not walk .went to one table bought 7 mantles and ran out …lol national will be packed. Folks buying pokemon like it was gold!!crazy

Seven #7s?? Sweet. How was the pricing on your Mantle septet? Good bargains, in line with closed eBay sales or way overpriced?

The Woodbridge show has been going on for at least 25 years. Many dealer collectors live near so you never know who is gonna set up. Nice group of raw Mantles.
Jonathan

Jolly it wad a pal $600 for all mantles fair deal i was happy man ..just too packed to even walk .ill be at the national early comfy sneakers .i have house on beach lbi so 35 min away ,,very few vintage dealers.my friend was giving his stuff away had bills to pay .pokemon was huge dont get it lol,

Canada Perspective
 

For what it's worth, the Canadian Sportscard Spring Expo was held a couple weeks ago in Toronto. I attended Friday and there was a long line to get in, longer than previous years (show is 2x per year but did not run during covid, though there was a fall 2021 show that set attendance records). I would say this show was less busy than the fall 2021 show, but still busier than pre-covid shows.

The show up here is 80% modern and 80% hockey, so it's not quite an apples to apples comparison with The National, but it's the closest we have up here. I've attended multiple Nationals so I am familiar with the mix of sports and vintage vs modern vs auction house setups. I collect mostly soccer, but also look out for vintage hockey and baseball.

I spent a good deal of $$ at the Fall Show (albeit mostly soccer cards), but barely purchased anything at the Spring show this year. People were still buying this year, but it looked down from the Fall Show, and it seemed there were more customers wandering around trying to sell or trade their cards.

So if this is any indication for the National, expect high dealer prices and mostly tire kicking going on (no surprise). Not to say there aren't diamonds in the rough to find (that's the fun part), but it's tough slogging to find them.

This is why the National being in Chicago every other year is so practical. AC is in my backyard, so I'm going. But for the same reason you aren't attending the show on the East Coast is why I'd never go to a National on the West Coast - never! I may be persuaded to attend if it were ever in Las Vegas, that's about it. In fact, even if I were spotted the airline tickets, I wouldn't head to the other coast - I can get through the show in 2 days so not sure if a trip across the country for 2 days would be worth it to me personally.

East Coast bias question. Has anyone created a demographic of collectors and location? Is it bigger on the East Coast?

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

I'm glad you said this, you're telling it like it is, bottom line.

Great Comments

Great comments as the above poster said. I'm in my mid 40s and collect mostly vintage but have a younger son so I dabble in modern from time to time. I can 100% confirm your comments regarding "modern" kids beginning to look towards vintage. Lately I have been asked about a few vintage cards I have for sale by kids that I know for a fact are in their early 20s. That has never happened in the past. It remains to be seen if these younger people will stick around for vintage collecting but, for the time being, this could be a big reason why vintage doesn't suffer some of the price drops with seen with modern.

About a year ago, I visited a local show and there was only one dealer selling vintage but I recently visited the same show and there were now six booths which were completely selling vintage and probably another 6 to 8 booths selling some vintage cards. I believe the return to vintage is getting much stronger daily. But I only sell vintage and have never had a slow down ever but I only set up once a year at the National.

This year's National should be mobbed and if you are really looking for really rare items, you should visit the show sometime between Weds. and Friday. By Saturday the rarest of the rare will be long gone unless they are over-priced. In fact, I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I will NOT run out of rare items to showcase. So I guess someone will infer that i am over-priced. But this is my once-a -year chance to sell my collectibles. Many buyers take pictures of my display and post them on Facebook, etc. and refer to my display as a "museum" so I work hard to keep everyone happy.

I will be bringing hundreds of T206's and for the first time in ten+ years, my T205 set is again for sale. But it is raw ungraded as are most of my display items. But as I sell items I will replace them in my 10 showcases with more rare items. I can do that all week. Believe me.

So you can listen to those who try to convince you to pass this year in AC, and wait for Chicago, or you can come this year (and next) and expect to find an outstanding display of sports collectibles and more this year.

Steve_NY

Yes, in the coming weeks we will deal with no shortage of messages about how no one in their right mind would go to a National in Atlantic City . . . and if it doesn't break records for attendance I will be floored.

If anyone planning to attend from outside the area has any questions on logistics, etc., feel free to DM me. I know AC very well and am down there 6-7 times a year.

I hope, for the sake of anyone attending, that it doesn't break records. I was at the (in)famous 1991 Anaheim show and it was ridiculous. The fire marshals had to limit entry and even so, many of the aisles were impassable. It took me four hours to get inside the first day and I would not have gone back for a second except that I arranged a trade with a dealer and part of the deal was he gets me inside on a dealer pass first thing in the morning.

What you want is a nice, solid and steady attendance that doesn't overwhelm the facility.

I'm staying at the Holiday Inn Express in Absecon which looks like a 15 minute, relatively straight shot to the convention center. I wouldn't mind hearing restaurant recommendations if you have any. I like Breakfast/Lunch/Dinner/Steak/Beer/Burgers/Italian/Chinese/Tapas/Beer/Japanese/Korean/Pizza/Beer/BBQ/Seafood/Beer/Wine and Beer if that helps narrow it down at all.

What about McDonalds ? :D

My go to for a quick breakfast. 2 Egg McMuffins and a large coffee should power be through at least 4 hours of National searching. Do they have food available at the convention center if you need a little re-charge?

Looking for something a little heartier at night.